Very interesting Poll Analysis

[bbinacan]

Disclaimer: This guy is a conservative but has liberals, middle-of-the-roads, and conservatives that can start threads.

His Composite Poll Analysis nailed the 2004 election. Right now, he has Obama beating McCain in the GE.

http://www.federalreview.com/2008/03/obama-would-win-if-election-were-held.htm

edit for spelling

[mikekohr]

1. Obama leads McCain in other electorial projections

that mirror this result. I see a potential for an Obama blow out with longgggggg coattails. I think he will take 53% to 55% of the popular vote, unless he picks Eliot Spitzer as his VP, although that would lock-up the "john" vote.

mike kohr

[bbinacan]

2. Now that's funny

:rofl:

[MagsDem]

3. His polling is horribly out of date, unfortunately

http://hominidviews.com/?p=1325

Try some more recent data.

[woolldog]

4. yeah I agree, we need more recent and reputable data

like surveyusa: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/6/212016/8597

[bbinacan]

6. See post # 5

[MagsDem]

7. Yeah, that Obama shill thinks BO is going to win OH

LOL -- enough said. I guess the pretty pictures are all you needed, huh?

[bbinacan]

8. So, you don't think that Obama

can beat McCain in Ohio?

[MagsDem]

No, I sure don't

Hell, he couldn't even beat HRC.

[neverforget]

31. Primary results do not equal general election results. God that is a hard

concept to understand.....

[LisaL]

10. How is Obama gonna do it if he couldn't even beat Hillary?

[woolldog]

24. what?

So all the Hillary voters in Ohio are going to go for McCain in the general election? Not likely.

Just because Candidate A beats Candidate B in a primary, does't mean that candidate B will lose to candidate C in a general election. That's a complete non-sequitor.

[stevenleser]

18. Dont confuse the Hillbots with facts and figures

they dont like it.

[bbinacan]

5. He'll catch up

Like I said, he absolutely nailed the 2004 race.

[MagsDem]

12. LOL - he "nailed" it the day of the election

He had Kerry winning for most of the race in 2004.

[bbinacan]

13. ?

What are you getting at? I saw the results the night of the election. I was there when it happened.

[MagsDem]

15. The person you are touting as so brilliant

... had Kerry winning up until the day of the election in his projections, which were conveniently adjusted later. I remember him well.

[bbinacan]

22. I happen to know him

a helluva a lot better than you dumbass. He happens to be my brother. We spent time talking over many a beer about how to conduct the composite poll. I know very little about Excel, so I was mostly a sounding board. He did the rest on his own. He DID NOT adjust numbers. I was fucking there! Now I'm awaiting your apology.

[MagsDem]

28. Then you have no excuse for lying

He predicted Kerry would win for months and months. And you know it.

[bbinacan]

29. And guess what,

Kerry lost just as he called it. Do me a favor, follow his analysis this year.

[MagsDem]

30. The evidence is right on the site if you can read a graph

He predicted Kerry all along. You know, so give it a rest.

[bbinacan]

32. He did and

it broke to Bush. So you give it a fucking rest.

[bbinacan]

34. Here is some helpful reading

Graph http://www.federalreview.com:80/images/evgraph.jpg
More info http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm
Final Call http://www.federalreview.com/fedrevdata.htm

I was wrong and so are you. He DID NOT predict Kerry all along. What say you now?

[Johnny__Motown]

9. Feb 18th is recent data?

[MagsDem]

11. The doofus thinks Obama is going to win ND

Sorry, that's just moronic.

[bbinacan]

14. I think he uses

historical data to help his poll allow for trends.

[MagsDem]

16. LOL -- yeah, like he did in 2004?

LMAO.

[angie_love]

19. do you like crapping on every single thread? is it a hobby of yours? just wondering

[MagsDem]

21. Reality has a liberal bias

[bbinacan]

23. Not in this case.

[MagsDem]

25. You don't even know the expert you cite predicted Kerry

would win in 2004 up until the day of the election. So yes, in this case.

[bbinacan]

26. See Reply # 22

and get back to me.

[SunsetDreams]

17. but your poll says...

Monday, February 18, 2008 at 11:49 pm

isn't this March or did I skip ahead?:shrug:

[djholman]

33. The polling is not out of date....

You were looking at an old post. I typically update these analyses on the same day new state head-to-head polls come out.

The most recent analysis for Obama--McCain is always posted here: http://hominidviews.com/?page_id=1251

The most recent analysis for Clinton--McCain is always posted here: http://hominidviews.com/?page_id=1160

Also, there is a discussion of the recent 50-state SurveyUSA polls here: http://hominidviews.com/?p=1370

[SunsetDreams]

20. Thanks, that is interesting indeed, I saw one where he 280 electoral...

it was on another thread here, so close enough

[bbinacan]

27. You're very welcome. n/t