Time to press the panic button: McCain leads Obama in PA and Michigan (polls)

[karmicglee]

Three new polls released between yesterday and today show John McCain surprisingly ahead of Barack Obama, though by a very small margin.

Rasmussen: McCain +1

Strategic Vision: McCain +3 http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pa_poll_031308.htm

Susquehanna: McCain +4 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/CrossTabs-Statewide%20March-President-Head-Mar08.html

And as if this were not enough, McCain holds a 3 pt. lead in Michigan. Rasmussen: www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/michigan_2008_presidential_election

I am worried about this, because Obama is arguably a lock for the nomination. The chances for Clinton to catch up with him are very slim; this mean Obama will face McCain, and if now, in the midst of a recession and after 8 horrible years of Bush he is statistically tied with McCain in these elector-rich blue states, I dont think there is much hope. I hope I am wrong.

[lisa58]

1. It's March

[Abacus]

40. It won't get any better as long as we're fighting each other,

and at this rate, that looks to be until the convention.

[ingac70]

2. Those links are not to polls. n/t

[Adelante]

3. You just got here and you're pushing the panic button?

You will fit right in.

[sniffa]

7. It's obviously a newbie

:spray:

[Adelante]

17. .

;)

Busy night already.

[NightWatcher]

4. this is how Hillary is hurting us by dragging this thing out

maybe if we could stop killing each other, we could start beating on McCain

[ginchinchili]

28. It's too close to blame Hillary for "dragging this thing out"

and I'm afraid recent events will hurt Obama in Pennsylvania, probably for the wrong reasons. It's not over, yet. Personally, I think we lose whether we get Hillary, Obama, or McCain. McCain is too much like Bush, Obama is too inexperienced (remember, we are involved in 2 wars), and Hillary is too divisive. Objectively speaking, all 3 are bad choices. America will continue on its downward trajectory because we can't think freely and objectively anymore. We're in real trouble.

[Captain Hilts]

35. She wins the Big Blue States and Obama does not. nt

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

5. Oh God No! And only 8 more months to the election!

However will Obama ever make up a 4 point lead??!?!

[maseman]

6. It doesn't matter right now

They haven't even campaigned against each other yet. Obama hasn't been to Michigan and hasn't started campaigning in Pennsylvania.

I do think polls matter...in August, September and October. Not now.

[Barack_America]

8. Wow. Two states that Obama hasn't campaigned in?

Save one closed appearance yesterday at a plant.

Should we be surprised?

[karmicglee]

25. How much has McCain campaigned in MI and PA?

I\'d love to know how many days.

[Barack_America]

36. McCain has been around for years. He has run for President before.

He has name recognition and most people have an "impression" of him. Obama needs to campaign just to get to that level.

[easy_b94]

9. Thanks Hillary...Thanks alot :(

[yourout]

10. If you check the numbers its worse for Hillary.

"...
13. If the election for President were held today and the choices were John McCain, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat for whom would you vote?
John McCain 48%
Hillary Clinton 42%
Undecided 10%

14. If the election for President were held today and the choices were John McCain, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat for whom would you vote?
John McCain 47%
Barack Obama 44%
Undecided 9% ....

<http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/pa_poll_031308.htm>

[Freida5]

11. Regardless of who wins the nomination, whoever it is should fire Dean and the DNC Board

[KittyWampus]

16. Just because the loser you insist on STILL supporting doesn't follow rules, doesn't mean

there shouldn't be rules.

Dean is the one who helped rebuild the Democratic party and it says volumes that Clinton supporters resist those efforts.

[KittyWampus]

12. Hillary will not be looked upon kindly in the history books

[ginchinchili]

29. Why is that?

[Joe the Revelator]

13. Maybe its time to unite behind one candidate and focus on McCain

and get McClinton to stop carrying his water.

[Olney Blue]

14. Welcome to DU, karmic. We're going to take McCain out.

Failure is not an option.

[BumRushDaShow]

15. Kerry won PA in the 2004 GE

PA will not put McCain in. The cities will make sure of that!

[Cali_Democrat]

18. Hillary is doing even worse against McCain nationally right now

Its because of the negative campaigning on the Democrat side. John McCain can stay on the sideline and look holier-than-thou. Won't last long. Once Obama and the Democrats unleash ads tying the pathetic economy to the Iraq war its ALL OVER for McCain and his Republican cohorts.

[karmicglee]

23. In fact, Obama and Clinton are doing equally well against McCain nationally

The latest Gallup has them up 2% against McCain.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/104938/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Competitive-Obama-Clinton.aspx

The latest WSJ/NBC has Obama +3, and Clinton +2, an insignificant difference:
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJ-20080312-poll.pdf

[book_worm]

19. And how is Hillary doing in those states right now?

that's right in PA and MI worse than Obama. It's because we still are not united that McCain has a slim lead in those states.

[NDambi]

20. wow..panic already huh

[DerekJ]

21. And he is beating Hillary with even higher points

So do you only read one part of the polls?

Strategic Vision:

13. If the election for President were held today and the choices were John McCain, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat for whom would you vote?
John McCain 48%
Hillary Clinton 42%
Undecided 10%

14. If the election for President were held today and the choices were John McCain, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat for whom would you vote?
John McCain 47%
Barack Obama 44%
Undecided 9%

Teh rest of your links doesn't work !!

[karmicglee]

34. And did you read my entire post?

If you had read it, you would have seen that I said Clinton had next to no chance to win the nomination. This is why I didn\'t discuss her. What\'s the point of discussing Clinton\'s chances vs. McCain when she is 130 delegates behind and her PA win will be offset by an Obama win in North Carolina?

The most interesting thing here is that Obama was supposed to be extremely electable, attracting even \"Obamacans\" to his side, but that seems not to be the case.

[VolcanoJen]

22. President Giuliani

I rest my case vis-a-vis polls eight months before an election.

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[karynnj]

26. Your post implies it would be better with HRC, yet

Here is the comparison from your Strategic vision link (PA):
13. If the election for President were held today and the choices were John McCain, the Republican, and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat for whom would you vote?
John McCain 48%
Hillary Clinton 42%
Undecided 10%

14. If the election for President were held today and the choices were John McCain, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat for whom would you vote?
John McCain 47%
Barack Obama 44%
Undecided 9%

McCain +6 is the result with Clinton - that's worse.

You might also want to consider what possibly caused the shift in Obama's numbers from about 2 weeks ago. Could it be that the Democrat running about 13% lower than him in pledged delegates said she would throw the kitchen sink at him - and did - while at teh same time PRAISING McCain. This was a boneheaded error for HRC - that shows that she cares for herself more than for the country of her party.

[karmicglee]

30. If my post implies that, in your opinion, it\'s because you didn\'t read it

I said in the body of the message that Obama is a lock for the nomination, and that I worry that Obama, who will certainly be our nominee, fares this bad against McCain in these states.

How can someone imply Clinton does better while at the same time admitting she has next to no chance to win the primaries?

My point is that Obama is not as electable as we were told he was. I always knew that Clinton was unelectable.

[karynnj]

38. Ok - I reread it and your right

I strangely thought you were saying that though she couldn't get the nomination, she was the better GE candidate - but nothing you wrote said that.

I agree -HRC may well be hurting the Democratic chances more than McCain himself. She needs to go positive or pull out.

[IsItJustMe]

27. Fear mongering tonight are we?

[NOLALady]

31. Welcome to DU.

Thanks for your concern.

[JoFerret]

32. If the Obama followers keep marginalizing Clinton supporters

...that they NEED to win then they will have split the party. Time to start shaping up folks and stop treating people (democrats) you disagree with as the enemy.

Stop pretending that there is no common ground. Stop tearing your own candidate down into the gutter.

[trayfoot]

33. And that surprises ................

WHO?

[NEDem]

37. no, I think it's time to press the ignore button.

[formernaderite]

39. not surprised...both those states

are very polarized racially speaking. Particularly the cities. Obama is creating history, the country is or isn't ready for him.

[MadBadger]

41. Why didnt you include the Strategic Vision poll that shows Hillary down 5 in PA?

[thevoiceofreason]

42. Gosh -- you joined today. And you're already giving advice?

You go on the ignore list.