Now, does anyone seriously believe that if Obama gets the nomination...

[flor de jasmim]

that he will lose in the GE?

Is there any reason to believe that he would not be able to motivate young and previously disenchanted voters to go to the polls?
............................................................debate the pants off of McCain?
............................................................present the case of going forward instead of back?

Even if he does not receive the votes of the rednecks and other Republicans who wouldn't vote D in any case OR the supporters of Hillary who, when push comes to shove, decide not to vote for Obama, don't you think he can compensate for that?

I believe strongly that through the grassroots efforts he can compensate for these setbacks.

What do you think?

[leftofcool]

1. Yes, he will lose

There is more out there than the Wright controversy and when the 527's start up, he won't stand a chance

[angie_love]

4. what more is out there?

I call bullshit and i'm tired of posts like these. They're fucking stupid.

[azmouse]

8. You're just a constant ray of sunshine.

:eyes:

[burythehatchet]

58. I was thinking more along the lines of

a constant smell of fart.

[yodermon]

16. And the 527's would treat Hillary with kid gloves, gotcha n/t

[moriah]

70. Not with kid gloves, no....

But one thing I think you have to admire about Hillary, even if you think she is Satan, is that she bounces back. How many times did people say, in just these last three months, that she was finished? She bounced back.

If 527s attack her for her "judgement", if they're Republican it's either going to be about her flip-flopping on the Iraq war, or spurious attacks that will boil down to repeats of the Lewinsky scandal, or other scandals that voters old enough to remember all of the other scandals have already seen as old news. And if they try veiled sexist attacks, it will outrage the women and make them go to the polls. It may, or may not, counteract those rabid Hillary-hating conservatives who will also be driven to the polls even if McCain doesn't coddle their interests. But she is tenacious, and I don't think even a new scandal will truly affect her chances. If it's the "lesbian love affair", well, most Hillary Haters already think she's a closet lesbian.

Hopefully by the Rev. Wright stuff coming out now, instead of much closer to the GE, it won't hurt Obama nearly as much. The 527 groups attacking his religion will hopefully be tuned out by people who are sick of the controversy. Veiled, or not so veiled, racism coming from 527 groups will be rejected even more so (IMHO) especially veiled racist attacks, and will encourage "people of color" (I include Asian-Americans, Native Americans, Latinos, etc, along with African-Americans in that phrase, because it is true) to come out to the polls in droves -- and without the "Hillary Hate" motivation of the Religious Right showing up as heavily.

When say "Hillary Haters" I'm not talking about real DUers, I'm talking about the Freepers and the few people I see post things I think cross a line but I believe most of them to be trolls, btw. Just so no one takes offense to the term.

Whoever gets the nomination has challenges to face -- McCain may need to invest in a teleprompter in some of his speeches, his constantly checking notes is not conducive to overcoming the "dumb Republican" image that Bush left the Republican Party. If he doesn't get some people working on his PR, he's going to be very one-oriented -- National Security. If that is the only leg he has to stand on, we either need Hillary at the top of the ticket, or a VP that has foreign policy experience, war experience, and is older for Obama.

For either Clinton or Obama, Bill Richardson would be an excellent choice. I think for Obama, Wes Clark would would be the best combination to offset the National Security argument, and if, in the interst of party unity (or a defeat in PA), it would be a great PR gesture for Hillary to say that she hopes that Wes Clark is on Obama's shortlist, at least. Clark owes a lot to the Clinton's, and by giving her "blessing" (spurious as it is) it would eliminate all of the people who want to call Richardson a "Judas" -- and THAT's a whole nother story.

Sorry for the long post.
edited for spelling

[theboss]

18. And Hillary has no baggage? Jesus

At least Obama's baggage (what little of it there is) is new and interesting. If I have to spend three months discussing cattle futures, I may have to shoot myself.

I've finally figured out what "vetted" in the Clinton Universe means. It means, "You've exhausted all my scandals to the point of annoyance."

[Cheap_Trick]

28. hillary has more baggage than a Samsonite factory

they're just dying to dump it all on her in the unlikely event that she gets the nomination. and she'll deserve every fucking minute of it, because life is a karmic lazy-susan.

[truebrit71]

62. ROFL!!! That is out and out the funniest thing I have heard in a long, long time...

...:rofl:

Thank you very much!!

[Cronus Protagonist]

41. One false flag operation and he's toast

He's extremely weak on national security. The GOP will sell FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) with McCain as the strong foreign policy warmongerer and Obama as the sophomore that he is.

[JTFrog]

48. Because Hillary and McCain are much stronger on security and foreign policy:

:eyes: :eyes: :eyes:

After citing numerous articles from the time, referring to the danger, and how unusual it was for a first lady to travel to such a war-torn place, Team Clinton conceded she "misspoke" about the sniper fire. And running with, "our heads down," from the airport.

Clinton herself told the editorial boards of the Philadelphia Daily News and Inquirer that she “misspoke.” Further clarifying her comments, she said the pilot aboard her aircraft had warned there was sniper fire in the area at the time when she was arriving in Tuzla.


"I say a lot of things -- millions of words a day -- so if I misspoke, that was just a misstatement," she said.

John McCain tries to do damage control on his ridiculous photo op in the Baghdad market that required a small Army to show us that it was safe there. His visit required 100 American soldiers, with three Blackhawk helicopters, two Apache gunships overhead, hidden snipers and bulletproof vests. His excursion included a Rug Shopping Spree at an Iraqi street vendor with Senator Lindsey (”I bought 5 rugs for 5 bucks“) Graham (R-SC) and Rep. Mike (”like a normal outdoor market in Indiana“) Pence (R-IN).

McCain said he regrets comments he made after a tour of Baghdad last Sunday, when he said he could see progress and the American people were not being told the “good news” about the war, according to excerpts of his comments and a press release provided by “60 Minutes.”

…”Of course I am going to misspeak and I’ve done it on numerous occasions and I probably will do it in the future,” said McCain, according to “60 Minutes”. McCain acknowledged in this “60 Minutes” interview that he had been accompanied by heavy security during his trip.

[Cronus Protagonist]

54. You can't be that ignorant of the GOP's mighty Wurlitzer

So I hope you had fun posting that crap. You don't have pics of Obama there because He's NEVER BEEN THERE. Weak, incredibly weak.

[JTFrog]

56. Weak is having to make shit up so fucking unbelievable that you lose all credibility.

Obama has been all around the world, but he was never first lady so he obviously never would have been allowed to take those trips.

But Hillary never had security clearance. Just what do you think she was talking about on those trips? We've seen the video and the photographs of what she was really doing and they sure as hell don't match up to the hype on her padded resume and self inflated profile.

McCain and Hillary have zero credibility.

I'll take the guy who's willing to talk to me and the rest of the world like we are adults who can handle it.

[Cronus Protagonist]

59. And listen to his patronizing speeches about "unity"?

Pig in a poke.

[tabasco]

53. Just because you say so?

Until you provide some links, you are a LIAR, just like Hillary.

[Eurobabe]

69. C'ya, I am sick of your Obama bashing shit piles.

You suck.

[shayes51]

73. Yes, he will lose.

[angie_love]

2. Yes he can win if Hillary stops kneecaping him.

And if hte media fucking wakes up to Grampa mcCain.

[Benhurst]

9. The media is fully awake. And come Fall, they will be working for

their bosses' candidate, John McCain.

[angie_love]

10. well thats not being awake thats being a blind sheep.

[Benhurst]

26. No, the blind sheep are those who don't realize the media are working

for the Republicans.

[angie_love]

37. no the blind sheep are those who'd rather lose their journalistic integrity

than go after repugs. :eyes:

[Benhurst]

46. Journalistic integretity died with the demise of independent newspapers

and the repeal of the Fairness Doctrine.

[angie_love]

65. ok whatever i'm done.

[monmouth]

3. I think you are absolutely correct. Can you imagine Barack Obama

and poor soul John McCain in a debate? No wonder the Repugs don't want Barack, he's unstoppable and will be for years...

[Benhurst]

29. Can you imagine Al Gore or John Kerry in a debate with a moron like George W. Bush?

By the time the media finish spinning the debates, Barak Obama will be spun as an inexperienced bullshitter with no military record challenging "straight-talking" war hero John McCain.

[moriah]

71. If McCain takes some of the advice I've seen him get....

Obama uses teleprompters, even if he wrote his speech, because it is easier to not have to refer to notes. The BEST politicians don't need either. McCain's stump speeches, he's got them memorized (as most politicians do), but all he can do is fall back on patriotism. That might have worked in 2004 (well, it did, Bush did get re-elected), but I don't know if it's going to work this year.

For him to do well in the GE, he's going to need to get more technological. He's got to focus on the economy, and that's an area he knows is a weak point. So I see teleprompter in his future if he can get the Religious Right behind them by making concessions. Obama already has all of these advantages, which is good for us! But McCain might end up acquiring some of those advantages.

As for debates... notes are allowed, and helpful. Just like any intelligent politician does, McCain needs to hire some clerks to get good statistics that he can back up and fact-checks in his notes, etc, and be able to find the appropriate place in his notebook quickly, as well as have a scratch-pad to write in while the other person is speaking. If he needs debate coaching, they will coach him. But I listened to a few of the Republican debates, and he did rather well.

Obama already does these things, I think, in debates. I know Hillary does, watching those debates showed me she did. Since I was already leaning toward her, I paid a lot of attention to her to see if I could watch her slip up.

If McCain can convert his campaign more in the direction of Obama, and if he makes concessions to the Religious Right, he could be an unhappy opponent.

I've already cast my vote. My electoral ballots were counted and my delegates get to go on. I've made my preferences known, we'll see. I'm still making phone calls for Hillary, but I deviate a bit from the script when I get a person who doesn't seem interested in Hillary. I say something about how voting is not just a priviledge, but a right, because so many people fought for our right to vote, and ask them to come to the polls no matter who they vote for. I think that is more likely to make an undecided go for Hillary, if their people are encouraging you to vote no matter what.

But whoever gets the nomination, I will support them wholeheartedly. If McCain decides to modernize his campaign at all, whoever our nominee is will need our support 100%.

[LakeSamish706]

5. I think if we have fair elections (No KKK Karl Rove interfering) Obama will...

beat the living crap out of McCain with no sweat whatsoever.

[RiverStone]

30. I absolutely agree!

...he will clean McBush's clock.

p.s. Used to live in B'ham. Loved the run around Lake Padden!

[Benhurst]

33. After 2000 and 2004 do you really expect the elections to be fair?

What makes you think the coverage will be fair? Do you think it will be any less biased than it has been for the last eight years?

And our "leaders," including Clinton and Obama, did absolutely nothing to address the stolen elections of 2000 and 2004.

[LakeSamish706]

40. I agree with you, our leaders did nothing to change this... And who knows...

what we are faced with in November! If we loose the GE due to this, it will be the Democratic leaders that are to blame...

[Justyce]

6. Kerry & Gore debated the pants off of Bush, and look where it got them.

Never underestimate the ability of the media to sway voters...

[Tesha]

14. But Bush *WON* all those debates! I heard it everywhere!

After all, Gore "sighed"! And Kerry, well...

Tesha

[crankychatter]

21. Kerry and Gore were nuanced to indecipherability

no comparison

[Whisp]

67. that is an excellent point. they had the artillery but refused to use it properly.

Whereas, Obama will mop the floor with McCain with his superior style.

[Benhurst]

38. Exactly. And often the first polls showed Kerry and Gore winning.

After the "talking heads" got finished, however, Bush ended up the victor.

Obama will be lucky if he isn't branded a flimflam man.

[Nitrogenica]

7. I think either candidate would easily beat McCain.

I just like Obama much more than Hillary.

He campaign stinks like Bush's 2004 campaign stunk. What Bush used against Kerry to win was disgusting.

[democrattotheend]

11. Who knows?

At this point I am not optimistic that either can beat McCain.

[Benhurst]

12. No one knows. But this doesn't look good:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Mar26.html

But it's very early. Anything can happen, and something unexpected undoubtedly will -- for good or bad.

[lefty2000]

13. Obama Can Win But What Then?

Will he sell us out to the corporations the way he sold out his constituents to the slum landlords in Chicago?

Just asking.

[msallied]

35. Oh yeah, Hillary certainly has no corporate or special interests ties.

[flor de jasmim]

15. I'm hopeful because it's been so long since we last had a grassroots candidate

and at this particular moment in time I believe we should not underestimate our own power. You can tell from my name that I was originally an Edwards supporter, so I have not been an Obamaniac or Obamaton (?). Still, he is a candidate who wins people over in a way I have not seen either of the other candidates do.

Anyway, time to go off and investigate McCain's credentials more thoroughly.

[mopinko]

17. i do not see how he can lose, but then again

the hillbots around here have been quite the education.

seriously, tho, i do not see how he can lose. the excitement around his nomination will explode once he is a candidate. i didn't see too many 1000 meagawatt smiles around the nomination of john kerry. gramps mcsame is about to be a greasy spot on the road to history.

[ramapo]

19. I think it is possible

He will have his work cut out for him turning back the hate machine. Hopefully, people are fed up with that crap but by no means do I think he will have an easy time in the GE.

[Guava Jelly]

20. He should win relatively easy

:)

[Froward69]

22. If GOP/Hillary has their way

yes he would loose. thats why Hillary is bashing as hard as she can... to ensure his loss, knowing if she is the nom she would loose also.

[bowens43]

23. I'm an Obama supporter and I believe that it's a possibility

however, with hillary, it's a certainty.

[crankychatter]

24. Where I live cable won't carry MSNBC, CSPAN or ComedyCentral

welcome to rural america

there are a whole lot of hardworking folks that are oblivious

The media must relish their iron grip on our government

swaying elections with a few soundbytes repeated 24-7 ad nauseum for a week

[onehandle]

25. Maybe. Both candidates have their own risk values.

I think that the old man is toast.

[Vinca]

27. Both candidates are damaged goods at this point, but if we rally

behind the nominee they will win. If half stay home and pout we won't.

[crankychatter]

31. OK, you want positive? I got your positive.

half the people that CAN VOTE don't because of conviction their vote is meaningless

you give them a candidate they BELIEVE is not corrupted by PACs?

you give them Obama's message without voice over commentary from talking heads?

you give them their own kids coming home from school and telling them
"Mom, Dad... we NEED to vote for this guy," then pulling up a video of ONE SPEECH?
Imagine MILLIONS OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN EVERY CORNER OF AMERICA REGISTERING VOTERS... not just young voters either... previously discouraged voters, that have been given a "reason to hope."

In the red states... Christians and Republicans vote about Guns/NationalDefense/RightToLife, granted.
But remember that Ron Paul got 10% plus of the Republican Primary vote based on his anti-NAFTA, and anti-WAR position. Throw in Obama's nuanced take on many of these issues, coming from a Christian (albeit AA SocialGospel Christian) perspective? And you have Huckabee voters, feeling unthreatened and coming over. Why? HONESTY. They don't feel threatened by him. AND they are largely anti-NAFTA. They support NET NEUTRALITY. They don't want FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS AND TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATIONS, telling our President what to do.

See?

I could go on for hours on the breadth of people Obama includes, culturally and sociologically.

One last thing.... the DEEP SOUTH. Get this one. Culturally, albeit unwillingly, Southern Culture and religion is the ADOPTIVE culture of African American people. Southerners are accustomed to living and working in close proximity to Black people. With educational efforts over the last thirty years, young Southern people have changed radically. MANY of them are ready. There is SO MUCH corruption and oppression at the State level in many of these states, these younger people are READY FOR CHANGE.

Don't be surprised.

I'll predict it right now.... the LARGEST LANDSLIDE IN THE HISTORY OF AMERICAN PRESIDENTIAL RACES.

remember, you heard it first here.

[crankychatter]

36. One more thing

Vice President Richardson

I rest my case

[Dervill Crow]

74. Okay, I'm convinced!

We really do need that to happen.

From your keyboard to God/dess's ears--or eyes--or whatever.

:hi:

[msallied]

32. McCain can only lose to Obama.

Given the fact that Republicans are crossing lines in record numbers to vote for her in the primary clearly signals she is the weaker candidate. And she is. Why? Because not only do all Republicans hate her, but so do half of Democrats. She doesn't stand a icicle's chance in Satan's ass of winning the General Election and her odds are nearly that for the primary, so what's the fuss?

[shadowknows69]

34. He'll tear McCain up in debates

[Dervill Crow]

39. I don't believe anyone can beat the Repuglican machine

no matter who it is.

Gore won.

Kerry SHOULD have won.

Look what that got us.

:cry:

[crankychatter]

45. no blue, here's the deal

Kerry AND Gore were the same pasty faced liberal intelligentia that the DNC has been trotting out for forty years, and we always lose. Obama may be educated but he's the salt of the earth.

We have never defeated an incumbent Republican with a non-southern Democrat... especially in war time. In 04 Edwards could've won but in the Northwest NO ONE would hear of it... such are our prejudices... no one would forgive his war vote. The problem with Gore was that he was a Senator, and perceived as a DC insider, despite being a Southerner. Also, the South is not without their landed Gentry... he was way too slick for people.

Obama is a first term senator and has the adoptive southern cultural manner of African Americans... folksy.

It can work really well. People are sick and tired man... even Republicans out here. Don't believe what the corporate media says about people. I have a friend that's a born again biker, farmer, methodist republican... cofounder of the Guardians that go to soldiers funerals to protect them from those crackpot protestors?

Anti-Nafta, Anti-War Republicans, Anti-crackpot Republicans.

They will NEVER VOTE FOR HRC... but they will vote for Obama.

[crankychatter]

42. Obama will win SURPRISE states and Iffy states

Georgia
Louisiana
Missouri
Kansas
Iowa
North Dakota
New Mexico
Nevada
Ohio
Florida
Colorado
Tennessee
North Carolina

[Johnny__Motown]

43. It seems clear that the new voters he draws into the process is a huge positive

Besides the generic advantage Democrats have this year.


I think Obama will beat the shit out of McCain, but I am bias.

[Ian_rd]

44. Obama's greatest weakness in the GE is Hillary.

Everyday that she stays in, she hurts his chances in the GE. That's why she does it. Clinton can and will cause Obama to lose if she chooses to.

[crankychatter]

47. Amen she needs to STFU and STF down

nuff said

six more weeks... fasten your seat belt

[NastyRiffraff]

50. Ah, that pesky democracy thing.

Keeps getting in the way of St. Barack's lust for power. How dare anyone run against him?

Folks, face it...he's not being vetted with any degree of seriousness right now. You'd better believe hte media will research him had in the GE. He's not really used to that, so it'll be "interesting" to see how he responds. His whining so far about the least of criticisms doesn't give me much hope.

[lojasmo]

49. Obama will walk to 270 electoral votes against McGoo.

Now if Clinton would stop with the fockery....

[Romulox]

51. I think Obama's bungling of the Mi/Fla situation may well cost him the WH. nt

[leftynyc]

52. I seriously believe he will lose

Because this country is still horribly racist. I think the Bradley effect will show from coast to coast. I really hope I'm wrong but I don't think so.

[OmahaBlueDog]

55. I gotta tell you, I don't think it looks good.

On the plus side, he's young, he'll make an old McCain look older, and he'd do well in debates. And he has Oprah.

On the downside, he is well outside the American presidential comfort zone. He is a man of color with a foreign sounding name. He is short on experience at the national level, and there's Wright, Rezko, and the "..y'know he's really a Muslim" whispering campaign.

McCain is a Vietnam war hero, and is well liked among independents (ironically, in his pwn party, he's not too well regarded).

If the public (as they do now) preceives that the war is under control, and the economy is not melting down, McCain probably wins, has a hostile congress, and is a do-nothing President for 4 years. If the War goes south (again), or the economy is in full crasn-n-burn mode, then Obama wins, and has two years to do what he can before the inevitable congressional backlash election in '10.

[End Of The Road]

57. He's toast. nt

[LWolf]

60. Yes. I believe he will lose the GE.

For what it's worth, I also believe that Clinton will lose the GE.

For reasons I've posted already today, and previously.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5255435&mesg_id=5264693

[cooolandrew]

61. Exactly Obama didnt' get where he is today by not motivating voters.

[terrell9584]

63. Its all in the electoral college

For starters, there is simply no way that he can win Arkansas. He just can't. Arkansas is an important barometer because it is a state where Democrats hold a supermajority in the legislature, control the congressional delegation, and hold almost all (if not all) statewide offices.

It's also a state party that Clinton allies control. Arkansas voted for W both times. In 2000, 5 points separated W and Gore. If Gore had just won Arkansas, he would have won the election.

I don't see a situation in which Obama wins Arkansas. I just don't. Why is this important, because isn't Arkansas a "red state", whatever that means. Well, it is important because no Democrat has ever been elected President without winning Arkansas. The only time it has happened is when Arkansas is not a state. (and while 2000 could sort of count, the fact is, as far as history knows, there was an official winner so precedent stands)

If you can find the election where we won without Arkansas (not counting 2000, which we officially lost even if the Miami Herald analysis says otherwise) I'll gladly retract this point.

In my heart, I just don't believe Obama can Arkansas, take that for what you will. I believe Hillary can probably win it, if just because everyone in the state thinks they'll have a job in Washington if she wins.


West Virginia. Highest labor union membership in the United States. Since 1960, has went with the GOP nominee four times. 1972 (McGovern), 1984 (Mondale) and 2000 and 2004. This is a state where people keep their UMW cards in a wallet alongside their NRA cards. A state where Democrats hold an near supermajority in the legislature, where they control most statewide offices, the congressional delegation, etc. This is a state that voted for Dukakis and yet Bush won it twice. I won't try and analyze that, all I will say is, I think Hillary could probably win WV. I don't see how Obama does it, I just don't. West Virginia, more than any other state, represents the blue collar, labor union, traditional working class base of the party. If we are going to win, we should be winning WV, and I just don't see Obama doing it.

Florida. The so-called microcosm of the nation. A state that we probably won in 2000 but wasn't officially called as that. Not a bellwhether by any means, but a state worth alot of votes. The Florida primary results followed traditional Florida stereotypes. Obama did well where you would expect him to do well, he did horribly where you would expect him to (Palm Beach, and yes, I'm speaking on demographic terms)

I don't see how Obama beats McCain in Florida. I can see how Hillary does.

The Republicans are not going to play nice. In John McCain, they have Mr. Untouchable. They can use every attack they want, they can play the race card hard, and no negative blowback will go on McCain, but they will gain all the benefits. McCain's war hero status buys him alot of leeway that other candidates wouldn't have, and people will take him for his word when he says that he is not with the 527s, whereas they wouldnt have bought it with a Romney or a Huckabee. It's just the way I see this playing out and I think McCain has already shown signs that this is the Republican strategy

[Politicub]

64. He will win if he gets the nom

The Rasumssen poll that is getting tossed around today by the MSM is only meant to divide us.

[indimuse]

66. 100% believe he will

LOSE!

[OneBlueSky]

68. he might win in a fair election . . . this will not be a fair election . . .

just as 2000 and 2004 were stolen, so will 2008 be . . .

it's not who votes that counts; it's who counts the votes . . .

[Dervill Crow]

75. You just shattered my brief moment of optimism.

I forgot for a moment about the sad reality of our country.

:cry:

[Thepricebreaker]

72. IT depends... is he a T-shirt moment or does he have real staying power.. thats the question...

[wowimthere]

76. K&R Once Obama is done with McCain...

McCain will be back in Arizona sitting in his rocking chair on his front porch.

[BlueIdaho]

77. Its about the money

You can't campaign without it. So just how many individual donors does Obama have today? Who has raised the most money ever in a political campaign? How much money does McCain have in his war chest today? Oh yeah - this doesn't hurt either - how does a doddering old short tempered fool supporting the Bush agenda look stacked up against one of the most compelling speakers in the last hundred years?

McCain is a one legged man in an ass kicking contest

edit - spelling.