Info about the top 10 to 20 Congressional races

[cally]

I think I've seen this information posted here but I'm trying to figure out where the competitive house races are. Does any one have ideas where I can figure out this information? Thanks.

Since I'm asking questions...Anyone know anything about the Delay race? Supposedly some saw it as possibly competitive. I know it's a long shot but I can dream. :-)

[liskddksil]

1. PA 15th District

Joe Driscoll (D) is challenging Charlie Dent (R) for the seat held by Pat Toomey. There are more democrats in the area than repubs, so we should have a chance. Driscoll also has money, since he was a former real estate redeveloper.

[TSIAS]

2. Here's about 30

I'm not entriely sure about the leanings of this site. I've heard that Sabato probably supports Bush. Nevertheless, it does give some races that are worth following.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/house_races.php

Herseth has to be the most vulnerable incumbent. She had a lot of name recognition this time, but Diedrich was able to close late in the race. Ben Chandler should have an easier time maintaining the seat he won in the special election. KY has another interesting race with Democrat Nick Clooney running in the 4th.

Stenholm, Chet Edwards, and Martin Frost all have very tough races. I know Morrison has been touted as a competitive opponent against Delay, but it's hard to see Delay losing with Bush leading the ticket.

I could see an upset in FL-22, my district. Redistricting has made it harder for Dems to unseat Shaw. With a strong Gore showing in 2000, Elaine Bloom came within 500 votes of winning. If Kerry does real well, I could see Shaw getting upset.

[cally]

3. Thanks, both of you

TSIAS..I hope you have an upset.

[cally]

4. One more kick

:kick:

[NewJerseyDem]

5. My ideas on competitive seats

I'm bored so I thought I would give a long list here. These are just my thoughts and I'm no expert.

* means incumbent
1: likely republican
2: leans republican
3: tossup
4: leans democratic
5: likely democratic

Vulnerable republican seats:
2=CT-2 Simmons* (R) v. Sullivan/McNally (D)
4=NY-27 Naples (R) v. Higgins/the field (D)
2=PA-6 Gerlach* (R) v. Murphy (D)
2=PA-15 Dent (R) v. Driscoll (D)
1=NC-8 Hayes* (R) v. Troutman (D)
2=NC-11 Taylor* (R) v. Keever (D)
4=GA-12 Burns* (R) v. Barrow/Haines (D)
1=FL-22 Shaw* (R) v. Stork (D)
2=AL-3 Rogers* (R) v. Fuller (D)
3=LA-3 Tauzin III (R) v. Melancon/Cacioppi (D)- others may join, LA has that weird election system
2=KY-3 Northup* (R) v. Miller (D)
3=IN-8 Hostettler* (R) v. Jennings (D)
1=IL-8 Crane* (R) v. Bean (D)
1=MN-6 Kennedy* (R) v. Wetterling (D)
2=NE-1 Fortenberry (R) v. Connealy (D)
1=OK-1 Sullivan* (R) v. Dodd (D) - Dodd entered today so I don't know how this will develop
1=NM-1 Wilson* (R) v. Romero (D)
1=NM-2 Pearce* (R) v. King (D)
3=CO-3 the field (R) v. Salazar (D)
3=CO-7 Beauprez* (R) v. Thomas (D)
1=WY-AL Cubin*/the field (R) v. the field (D)
3=AZ-1 Renzi* (R) v. Babbitt (D)
2=NV-3 Porter* (R) v. Gallagher (D)
3=WA-5 the field (R) v. Barbieri (D)
2=WA-8 Reichert (R) v. Alben/Ross (D)

Vulnerable democratic seats:
3=PA-13 Schwartz (D) v. Brown (R)
5=VA-8 Moran* (D) v. Cheney (R)
5=GA-3 Marshall* (D) v. Clay (R)
5=FL-2 Boyd* (D) v. Kilmer (R)
3=LA-7 Mount/Doucet/Cravins (D) v. Thibbodaux/Boustany (R)
5=TN-6 Davis* (D) v. Bowling (R)
4=KY-4 Clooney (D) v. Davis (R)
5=KY-6 Chandler* (D) v. Buford (R)
5=IN-9 Hill* (D) v. Sodrel (R)
5=IA-3 Boswell* (D) v. Thompson (R)
4=SD-AL Herseth* (D) v. Diedrich (R)
3=KS-3 Moore* (D) v. Taff/Kobach (R)
3=TX-1 Sandlin* (D) v. Gohmert (R)
2=TX-2 Lampson* (D) v. Poe (R)
3=TX-17 Edwards* (D) v. Wohlgemuth (R)
3=UT-2 Matheson* (D) v. Swallow/Bridgewater (R)

Incumbent v. Incumbent:
2=TX-19 Stenholm* (D) v. Neugabauer* (R)
2=TX-32 Frost* (D) v. Sessions* (R)

[cally]

6. Thank you!!!

:yourock: :bounce:

[I Lean Left]

7. I was really hoping to see Hastert on the list

Between the Senate race and the Presidential race, I was hoping that Hastert might be vulnerable. Be great to dump a large name, especially one in leadership. Really puts an exclamation point on things. Kind of like Foley getting dumped in '94.

[NewJerseyDem]

8. Hastert has a solid republican district

It voted for Bush over Gore by a margin of 54% to 42%. Hastert has been easily reelected ever since he was first elected in 1986 and there is no evidence that the district will turn against him. Foley represented what was really a republican leaning district so he was much more vulnerable than Hastert is today. Also, Foley lost in the sweep of 1994 and the chances of that happening again in 2004 is in all honesty, very unlikely. I would love to see Hastert lose, but it just isn't going to happen.