* Campaign Strategist Slams LA Times Poll

[MallRat]

From ABC's "The Note" today:

Bush campaign strategist Matthew Dowd caveats to ABC News: "A note of caution: be very careful in reporting Los Angeles Times poll. It is a mess. Bush is leading independents by three, ahead among Republicans by a larger margin than Kerry is ahead among Dems, and we are down by seven. Outrageous. And it gets worse. They have Dems leading generic congressional ballot by 19. this means this poll is too Democratic by 10 to 12 points."

Wow... they're desperate to spin this news. Does Dowd have an explanation for the fact that Gallup is showing the same numbers on their top-line?

-MR

[MoonRiver]

1. The Repuke meltdown is coming whether * likes it or not.

Like being trapped in a perfect political storm, * and his fascist thugs are lost at sea without their lifeboats. :evilgrin:

[Renew Deal]

2. Kerry is losing Independents?

:wtf: How could he not be winning that group? This all might mean that the right will not show up on election day and the left is foaming at the mouth to show up.

[lancdem]

4. I was curious about that, too

[AP]

9. Last couple of elections, I's are undecided this far out, and always break

heavily to Dems.

I don't know how this poll treats I's, but I heard a story about Zogby on This American Life. They were doing a poll for the WI primary and the interviewers couldn't use the numbers if a person was undecided. When they gut to someone who was undecided, they'd really push them to make up their mind. Technically, they should have hung up. So, either this poll isn't including undecideds at all, or it's forcing the I's into making up their mind now, and the fact is, 2/3rds will probably decied to vote Dem on election day.

Here's the story:

The Facts Don't Matter

3/12
Episode 260

...
Act Two. Mush Polling. This American Life producer Sarah Koenig visits the John Zogby polling operation to get answers to her own questions about the mushiness of poll numbers. (15 minutes)

www.thisamericanlife.org

[lancdem]

3. If Bush is leading indepdendents by 3

shouldn't the Bush campaign want that news out there? BTW, I have no seen any recent poll where Bush wasn't losing indys by a solid margin.

[wtmusic]

5. No, it means the PUBLIC is too Democratic by 10 to 12 points

:D

[Kahuna]

6. If bush is leading with Indies and a greater margin with repukes..

how can he be behind? Duh?

[Atman]

7. This is hilarious

"...They have Dems leading generic congressional ballot by 19. this means this poll is too Democratic by 10 to 12 points...

Yeah, too democratic for the GOP! What a hoot. It reminded me of a LTTE in the Hartford Courant a couple of days ago. A woman pointed out that a recent edition of the paper featured X number of negative stories about George Bush, while the same edition only featured one story of any kind about Kerry (which happened to also be negative). She was sure it proved the paper to be a part of the vast left-wing conspiracy, as they refused to report on all the schools and hospitals opening, and all the wonderful things we are doing for the good people of Iraq. She didn't seem to see a problem here...as the GOP guy doesn't seem to be able to read the obvious signs before him; the numbers aren't bad for Bush because they are being reported wrong, they are just bad for Bush. Period. Yes, once again, a la Nixon, the GOP has laid down with liars and theives, and they're waking up with fleas and chiggers and a mattress full of stolen loot. The natives are waking up to the big hood-wink, and they're pissed off.

[AP]

8. "be very careful" -- what does that mean?

how sad.

[beyurslf]

10. be very careful? Is that a threat?

[Mountainman]

11. The question is, how was the poll taken? If it was done correctly it's

accurate. By using the rules of statistical analysis, what is true of the group selected is true of the population as a whole + or - some factor.

Just because someone doesn't like the results and makes up some talking points doesn't disprove the poll.

The repubs don't want the public to think that Kerry has a lead because of the sheep who would then think it is OK to vote for Kerry since so many others will.

[salonghorn70]

12. Rush's View On the Poll

Rush was going to give his take, but I did not get to hear it. Any one know what he said. Of course his take is always that polls showing Republican leads are accurate and those showing Democrat leads are bogus.

[Mountainman]

14. Rush uses the same lies as all the blast fax folks do

More Dems were polled than Repubs.

As time goes by and the lead widens they will have to make up a new spin lie.

[59millionmorons]

13. Then he will really hate the latest Gallup poll kerry leads by 6

HA

[Tabucky]

15. go tout your fixed foxnews polls if you're not happy, shitstick