Poll: Kerry and Bush Tied in New Hampshire

[PSU84]

American Research Group June 10, 2004

Bush and Kerry Tied Among Likely Voters in New Hampshire

George W. Bush and John Kerry are tied among likely voters in New Hampshire according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 46% of likely voters say they would vote for Bush if the presidential election were being held today and 46% say they would vote for Kerry. A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 6% of likely voters are undecided.
In a race between just Bush and Kerry, Bush is at 47% and Kerry is at 47%.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in New Hampshire. Of the 600 likely voters, 35% are registered as Republicans, 29% are registered as Democrats, and 36% are undeclared voters (independents). The interviews were conducted June 7 through 9, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

New Hampshire
likely voters Jun 9

George W. Bush 46%
John Kerry 46%
Ralph Nader 2%
Undecided 6%

Kerry has increased his lead among undeclared voters since the April survey. In April, it was Kerry 48% and Bush 38% among undeclared voters. In this survey, it is Kerry 58% and Bush 32% among undeclared voters.
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nh/

[FightinNewDem]

1. ARG

Keep in mind that this is American Research group. ARG has a poor track record (they badly overestimated Dean in the primary), and the firm is considered a bit of a joke in political circles in New Hampshire.

I would like to see some numbers from RKM Research out of Boston, which is headed by Kelly Myers, the former head of the UNH Survey Center. They seem to have the best handle on the NH electorate

[Feanorcurufinwe]

2. Those 6% undecided will break for Kerry.

undecideds traditionally go for the challenger

[dolstein]

3. Nader will deliver New Hampshire to Bush

The Republicans aren't paying him good money for nothing.