Zogby: Kerry/Dean in close race in battleground states w/ Bush/Cheney

[WI_DEM]

Zogby has now taken a poll to see how a Kerry/Dean ticket would fare vs. Bush/ Cheney in 16 key battleground states: Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, NH, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

The results:
Bush/Cheney 48%
Kerry/Dean 47%
Nader 1%

Nationally here are the results:
Bush/Cheney: 45%
Kerry/Dean: 43%
Nader: 3%

Bush/Cheney: 45%
Kerry/Gephardt 43%
Nader: 4%

Nationally if Dean is the running mate the Democratic ticket will beat Bush/Cheney among 18-29 year old voters by a whopping 60-29 percent. With Gep on the ticket that falls to 54-39 for Kerry.

Among Singles Kerry/Dean win 57-34 while Kerry/Gep win 51-38.

This is the most interesting result, imo, among African-Americans Kerry/Dean win 72-19 but if Gep from Missouri with a much higher African-American population that Vermont is on the ticket the Democratic ticket wins 65-26 percent.

Among people making $15,000 or less Kerry-Dean win 57-26 while Kerry/Gephardt take this group by a less than enthusiastic 42-40.

http://www.zogby.com/

There is also a new Opinion Dynamics poll which is more recent than Zogby which shows a Kerry/Dean ticket ahead of Bush/Cheney nationally 45-44 and ahead 48-42 in "battleground" states.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,122378,00.html

It is interesting how suddenly Dean is being considered by the media for VP. The Boston Globe had an editorial today urging Kerry to consider Dean and now suddenly after months of being ignored for VP two polling organizations are finally including Dean in test matches for VP. I wonder if something is up?

[MallRat]

1. First Fox, now Zogby?

Why are they both collecting horse-race numbers on Kerry-Dean and Kerry-Gephardt?

Is there some compelling reason why NEITHER of them have tested Kerry-Clark or Kerry-Edwards, both of which seem to be more obvious choices?

Hell... why not Kerry-Vilsack while they're at it?

-MR

[WI_DEM]

4. I believe they have tested both of those tickets in the past

as have other organizations--and I'm sure they will again.

[cjbuchanan]

6. I think they are trying to add to the field

The more names they have in there, the more things they have to talk about. I think they have done both Clark and Edwards polls in the past, so maybe they are just wanting to present more information.

I still think Dean has very little chance of getting the spot, but it sure is fun to see his name out there.

As far as the Kerry-Vilsack poll, I think the reason is most people would say, who is Vilsack?

2. Is Zogby allowed to do this?

Take polls of a Kerry/Dean ticket?
Isn't he paying attention to the conventional wisdom?
Doesn't he know who the choices are supposed to be?

:)

[arcos]

3. wow, very interesting...

too bad they didn't do it with Kerry/Edwards and Kerry/Clark, to compare it!

[Cheswick2.0]

10. They have been doing those polls

for months

[arcos]

20. I know, but it is hard to compare if it is not done in the same poll...

just as they did Dean and Gephardt, it would have been interesting if they had done Clark and Edwards in this one too.

[Cheswick2.0]

27. that's true

maybe they will ask for a poll on those other guys later.

[tridim]

5. Kerry/Dean would be a dream

(actually Dean/Kerry) but I don't think it will happen. Didn't Dean recently sign a contract to do a TV show?

[cjbuchanan]

7. No contract signed

Just discussions on the matter.

[BurtWorm]

8. Come on...everybody! Kerry-DEAN! Kerry-DEAN! Kerry-DEAN!

I'll bet everyone here at DU is loving this combination. ;)

[WI_DEM]

12. well...

I wouldn't go that far. Kerry-Clark seems to be the majority of DUers ticket of choice. :)

but given the level of support which Dean had at one time on DU if he suddenly was under serious consideration for VP-a Kerry/Dean ticket might become very appealing to many.

[BurtWorm]

15. I'm just jesting, WI_DEM!

;)

PS: I always wrote out Dean for Veep, though I supported him in the primaries, for the reason that he didn't balance the ticket geographically. But I am now beginning to think he might balance it emotionally or ideologically. He'd be a very interesting choice. But I'm not getting my hopes up one tiny bit. Kerry seems to be motivated by doing anything BUT "interesting" when it comes to choices.

[WI_DEM]

19. I thought you might have been

but wasn't sure. Thanks!!

[juajen]

57. I, actually, think it's a fine combination. The man has charisma.

I also like other combinations. I believe the candidate will choose carefully. I, like others, will support the ticket vigorously whoever Kerry chooses.

[Cheswick2.0]

9. The swing state numbers are the most important

There is also a new Opinion Dynamics poll which is more recent than Zogby which shows a Kerry/Dean ticket ahead of Bush/Cheney nationally 45-44 and ahead 48-42 in "battleground" states.

At my Dean meet up about half the crowd were republican/independent/green. Dean would do very well here.

[cjbuchanan]

11. Isn't there a petition for Dean to be the VP?

Wonder how many folks have signed it? Anyone have a link?

[Kipepeo]

48. Dean for VP petition

link here: http://www.draftdeanforvp.org/

[dolstein]

13. Pretty useless without a Kerry/Edwards comparison

NT

[WI_DEM]

14. I'm sure one will be done soon

but to me it does deflate the arguement that Dean would be a drag on a Dem ticket with two northeasterners on the same ticket.

[janx]

45. I think that's because Dean had so very many supporters

from all over the country. His support is by no means regional. It's all over the map--in more ways than one, geographically and ideologically.

[Cheswick2.0]

24. I don't think Edwards is actually being considered

He's just too bland. Then there is that trial lawyer thing. Edwards on the ticket would sink it in Pa. We have a very large tort reform battle going on here. I think MI and WV are also a large problem for the same reason.
I think they have given up on the Edwards idea. I guess the DLC isn't going to get it's way this time.

It seems to be Dean or Gephardt since those are the two Zogby was asked to poll on. :7

[saracat]

28. Edwards bland?

He is the only Dem with Charisma! Gep is as dull as dishwater, and yesterday's news as well.

30. He's got charisma

but it's that kind of middle america Bland charisma.
That might be what we need this election, just the same.
Boy next door charisma equals bland in my book.

[saracat]

32. But no one else has any charisma

at all, and we have to balance the ticket. We informed voters forget that not all voters are issue oriented and many will vote likability or sex appeal. Trivial, but true.

33. I think Dean has plenty of charisma

I know I'm biased.

:evilgrin:

[saracat]

37. I like Dean

but he's no movie star!Edwards appeals to everyone , even those who vote on cute!

[I thought so.]

16. Dean is a loser.

Of course for Rove he is a dream. He couldn't get him on top so the bottom will work just as well. Karl has hours of tapes of the Crazy Dean. The issue will be Dean's insanity. This is how desperate the Republicans are. Gosh,Fox and Zogby who would have thought.

Now,how many times will we have to suffer this nonsense?

17. which nonsense?

The Dean is a loser meme doesn't do much to advance civilized discussion.
There are reasons given for Dean not being the VP choice that need to be considered, but that isn't one of them.
All the people who ran in the primaries this year were losers except for Kerry.

[Name removed]

21. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

22. a lot of Democrats did vote for him

as I recall
Just not all of them.
The same could be said for all the other candidates, even Kerry.
See my first post.

[saracat]

29. Not really

Kerry got something like 80% of the vote in altogether. What surprised me is that so few did vote for Dean. I thought he would do much better.

[tridim]

23. Kerry rejected Dean?

Hardly.. He's done nothing since the primary but embrace Dean and Dean's ideas. In case you haven't been paying attention, Dean is helping Kerry win the election.

What's your agenda? If you don't like Dean, just say it.. and move on.

[I thought so.]

31. My agenda is winning.

Dean won nothing. 200 votes don't get it. Kerry doesn't need an albatross on his neck.

38. What's that sound?

:hurts:

oh, I thought so...

[depakid]

59. Well, Kerry sure needed Dean in Oregon

otherwise he wouldn't have had 800 people show for the Portland rally, much less the 5000+ that came largely for Dean.

0h, and last time I heard- Oregon (along with Washington- where Dean is also hugely popular) are battleground states....

So you might want to rethink your albatross theory- espcially with Nader in the race.

[WI_DEM]

18. maybe nonsence for you

but if he is such a loser why is he doing well on a Kerry ticket and doing better than Gep among many groups. Karl wouldn't have made it known he wanted Dean to be the nominee if he really did want him. Sorry but it doesn't make any sence for him to publically say he wanted Dean--I think he feared Dean more than any at that point and by saying Dean is the one that he wanted he was hoping people like you would fall into that line of thinking.

As far as Crazy Dean--I guess being right about Iraq and taking on Bush and Cheney from the beginning would be crazy to some people, but not to lots of Democrats.

[Cheswick2.0]

26. the republicans are very very afraid of Dean

Rove said he wouldn't know how to run against Dean.

43. Truthfully? Rove said that?

I'd love to have a source on that, can you help?

[Cheswick2.0]

25. silly

that's just silly. But I am sure all will be revealed at the election night unmasking.

39. What's that sound?

:hurts:

oh, I thought so...

[Guaranteed]

46. Night night. nt

[mzmolly]

34. Wow, Thanks! Very interesting that Zogby has this on their breaking news

page! :toast:

[ozone_man]

35. I would have to vote for Kerry

if Dean were on the ticket, but he hasn't persuaded me on his own yet. I'm still waiting for a sign of leadership.

[ibegurpard]

36. This is a small vindication of sorts

It shows me that the "Dean is a '72 redux loser" idea was garbage. He doesn't hurt the ticket.

[mzmolly]

40. Yes, isn't that interesting. No moderates fleeing the party to Bush when

Dean is on the ticket. And in fact, it's a stronger ticket then Kerry/Gephardt hmmmmm???? :freak:

[zulchzulu]

41. Dean has Sec. of Health/Human Services written all over him..not VP

Besides MA and VT might have worked in a 18th century ticket... not now.

42. Why, just because he has an MD at the end of his name?

I see Dean doing damn near anything he wants, the man is a dynamo!

And I don't buy the North Eastern bias a bit.

[Kipepeo]

49. dynamo

exactly. He has an appeal that no one else has, in my opinion. He can energize people who have never voted before or people who have given up voting and even some people who might otherwise vote 3rd party.

I think he's the best choice.

[Guaranteed]

47. Not even that, he needs to have McAuliffe's job nt

[AntiCoup2K4]

58. If the New England thing is such a big deal, then Kerry can always say ...

...he's from Colorado. Hey, if Cheney can be from Wyoming when it's convenient for him, why the Hell not?

[ibegurpard]

44. kick

I'm not sure I like the idea of Howard Dean being muffled by the constraints of running as VP with someone as cautious as Kerry. Still, I am VERY glad to see this because it helps put to rest the bullshit put out there by the media and the Democratic Party that he was a loser with no appeal to anyone other than "extreme liberals."

[mzmolly]

50. Kick #2

:hi:

[MessiahRp]

51. The problem I see is

Kerry's camp seems to think that there's more votes to be won on the Center-Right... so he's going to go for a conservative candidate who can draw Republicans from some demographic or another.

I personally am not a fan of that strategy because I think there would be a lot more to be gained by playing Kerry as the Centrist and having a VP choice that energizes the Left to stay miles away from Nader, but that's just me.

I'd love to have Dean as VP, or Clark, and Edwards I could handle.. although I really don't want Gephardt personally. He's a nice guy and he has the labor unions, but he's not exciting enough to pull this ticket anywhere.

Of course I kind of hope Dean isn't picked because I'm helping organize the WI State Dem Party next year and I'm aiming to party build with Youth Voters and I really want Dean as my keynote speaker. :) Okay that was selfish, I know.

Rp

[Kipepeo]

52. Agreed

I think Dean is a good choice because I think going after the left and those who don't vote/are unmotivated is a better strategy.

But I also don't think Dean would be a huge liability to attracting Center-Right voters. I'm sure some would call me delusional and say it's impossible to attract both, but I think that's what he can bring to the ticket.

[mzmolly]

60. Dean is a fiscal conservative and politically moderate.

Though the media has painted him out to be an angry leftist.

Molly Ivins said it best when she described him as a "fighting centrist." I think the main reason Dean got such support is because he believes that the Democrats should actually be an opposition party. That they should fight back and represent their constituants/party members.

[IronLionZion]

53. Oh I hope so

please (crosses fingers and prays)

Dean has what it takes to energize the voters and get a huge turnout. Not to mention his awesome ideas and passion for change.

[DaveSZ]

55. .

"Kerry's camp seems to think that there's more votes to be won on the Center-Right... so he's going to go for a conservative candidate who can draw Republicans from some demographic or another."


Kerry and Dean are both center-right. :)

[IronLionZion]

56. BBBBBut the Republicans say they are left-wing hippie freaks

that drive Volvos and pierce their noses and stuff! :P

[mzmolly]

61. You forgot the tatoos and latte!

;)

[mitchtv]

54. I could live with that

.