Truth About the Race... and Obama's impending defeat...

[Johnny Battleground]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9564.html

I've repeated this in other posts. Obama wasn't vetted and now we have a problem.
The article hits on all the major reasons Obama will lose to McCain and why Hillary would fare better.
His Hope, Change, Unity platform has been nuked thanks to Wright, Michelle and his own statements...
... and this is in the softball league.
When full body contact major league hardball gets underway, we've got a fawn staring at the headlights.

It'd be better if we had a smash mouth politician (family) who knows how to fight and win.

[elizm]

1. Desperation. nt

[tekisui]

2. Clearly, the Clinton's don't know how to win.

They have lost to Obama. How would they get the chance to lose against McDubya?

[Johnny Battleground]

15. Obama had a free pass, and then the crap hit the fan...

Had he been vetted from the start Obama would have been gone way back...
...with Dodd and Biden.Edwards would have had a decent chance.
The vetting took too damn long.
He is damaged goods with the swing voters we desperately need.
You just do not go to a church with Wright at the helm for 20 years and then claim amnesia.

[livingmadness]

20. Actually I read this piece early today ...

and thought it was one of the more poorly argued pieces I've read on Politico.

"She and Bill Clinton both devoutly believe that Obama’s likely victory is a disaster-in-waiting ... some friends describe Clinton as seeing herself on a mission to save Democrats from themselves."

Yikes. Given the current spat, WHO is it that is condescending? Bill and Hillary know soooo much better than the many super-delegates who have already endorsed Obama? And have appointed themselves the party-saviors? Oh the IRONY. And don't even get me started on their contention that the Clinton's have been handling Obama with kid-gloves "Far from a no-holds-barred affair, the Democratic contest has been an exercise in self-censorship" (I think I just vomited a little in my mouth).

The essential argument of the piece is that Obama is not electable. And they cast a list of the reasons why not against ... well, Hillary as a blank-slate apparently since nowhere do they attempt to compare a list of Hillary's, arguably many, and equally (though I would argue greater) worrying weaknesses in terms of the GE. Indeed they dismiss such a list as stuff Democrats already know. The 'she's been vetted' argument. BS - attention spans are notoriously short, and Obama has not come anywhere NEAR highlighting issues for Clintons (both) that will quickly remind those same Democrats of the agony experienced by many in WC's closing years. Added to that, Democrats in the traditional sense should not be relied upon alone to win the GE for either candidate. Indeed the writers argue this fact themselves (albeit inadvertently) pointing to Gore/Kerry as an example of high profile candidates who couldn't bring home the presidency (despite Gore's actual win). This more than anything indicates the D-candidate will have to be able to win a significant number but also reach outside of those traditional democrats in order to win the GE. And here HC's greatest weakness is exposed - her figures (no mention of these either whilst Obama's are covered extensively) evidence little capacity to do that and thus show her to be much more vulnerable in the GE. The hyper-familiarity they argue as being in her favor as far as negatives goes, is very much against her in terms of creating new appeal. New voter registrations have increased significantly over previous years, and those hard-to-get-to-the-booth voting populations - youth and African Americans, have been motivated like never before by Obama's candidacy. Sure, he will need to win a broader cross-section of voters than that, but the context of this years GE - increased bitterness over war/economic issues (which strangely never get a mention in the article despite having been identified as THE issues of the 2008 election), indicate a much greater likelihood of a Democratic victory than was the case in either 2000 or 2004. And given that neither candidate will enter the GE race without negatives to overcome, then if Obama can maintain his delegate lead, he should be given the shot like any other candidate would be. He has earned it.

[dchill]

63. Excellent post!

Well said. Welcome to DU! :hi:

[hfojvt]

79. very nicely done

and welcome :hi:

Yes, Hillary must save us from ourselves. Just think, if she had not run, we might have nominated Edwards or something.

[JoFerret]

28. I hope it ain't so

We desperately need a dem in the WH.

But it is true we are handing the GOP a soft target.

If Obama wins the nomination we are going to have to work might hard. And we will.

[kmsarvis]

54. and yet he still leads Clinton in the polls.........

What does that say about her electability?

[QC]

55. It strongly suggests that we are now stuck with two weak candidates. n/t

[Two Americas]

73. misleading

That which most strongly appeals to the progressive base - and that is mostly a matter of style and image - is that which is most strongly rejected by a significant segment of the population. This has been becoming more and more true over the years, and may have reached its high water mark with the Obama candidacy. We ran professor Gore, then professor Kerry, and now professor Obama. We can mock people for rejecting those candidates over matters of style and image, but they are clearly being chosen by the progressive base for their style and image.

Rather than celebrating Obama being ahead of Clinton, we should question why he is having such difficulty putting her away. That could well be because there is a ceiling on Obama's support, even among the most active Democrats, that there are just not enough "like minded" people who share the proclivities, tastes and prejudices of the progressive base. There may be a ceiling on support for Obama, and the way that Obama supporters are promoting his candidacy is solidifying that ceiling. The more aggressive and self-righteous Obama supporters become, the more the opposition is solidified.

[DemVet]

24. "They" have lost? Oh, Obama has 2025 delegates to secure the NOM now, does he?

No, he does not. He won't have until the convention, if then. Be prepared for a brawl at the convention.

[JoFerret]

29. Yep. Let's count the votes.

.

[QC]

56. Except for Florida and Michigan. Can't count them. n/t

[cali]

3. what nonsense. First of all, who are all these naive dems?

Governor Sebelius, Senators Nelson, Kennedy, Casey, Leahy, etc.?

Secondly, she sucks as a campaigner. He's so much better at it than she is. Every time she's attacked him, HER favorability takes a bigger hit than his. And he's been waaay kinder to her than the repukes would be. Hillary is the one that said she was going to throw the kitchen sink at him- and she's been trying- despite the silly lies in that absurd Politico piece.

Thirdly, of course he's being vetted. Duh. Look at the wall to wall two week coverage of Wright-Gate. And Bitter-Gate.

Hillary Dearest can't fight her way out of paper bag. She's losing, genius. And sorry, Obama has survived Rezco and Wright just fine. And he'll do the same with bitter-gate.

He's likable. He has charisma AND teflon. She has negative-charism and she's velcro- everything sticks to that pathetic woman.

[Johnny Battleground]

19. The vetting came too late...

... he already had most of the road covered.
Had this come out in NH,he'd be toast.
Long gone.

[DemVet]

25. Most people that voted for Obama ALREADY have "buyer's remorse."

[PetraPooh]

32. Proof please.

[SoFlaJet]

47. when you coming back

from Crazy Town DV? Give us a call when you do...K?

[Emit]

60. Prove that statement.

[woolldog]

68. You just hate women! Sexist!

:P

[datopbanana]

4. "It'd be better if we had a smash mouth politician (family) who knows how to fight and win..."

When was she planning on demonstrating that

[bowens43]

5. Yeah, keep spreading the right wing bullshit

it worked so well for hillary...........

truly fucking pathetic. This is why she lost. America is sick and tired of Rovian politics.


on edit: Sorry I didn't notice that you were a newbie for hillary. Now you piss poor attempt to smear Obama makes you look even more ridiculous.

Go away newbie.

[Johnny Battleground]

17. Hey buddy...

... most likely I was a Democratic voter when you still were filling your diapers.

Obama is in fight club lite right now.
When it comes to the general, he'll be minced meat.
He hasn't defended crap, he's let the Wright ordeal hand like curing meat, and the republicans are ready to BBQ.

You may live in fantasy land but Obama has smeared himself.

[Leftist Agitator]

33. Yes, so let's nominate Clinton...

After all, with negatives that float just under 50%, she'd be a shoe-in, right?

Your Hillarite desperation is palpable.

[Name removed]

76. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Zachstar]

6. The topic name sucks the whole thing makes no sence.

Oh and it reeks of desperation.

Obama is going to win the nomination. You mise well just skip the stages and go right to acceptance. If you sill cant stand Obama then work with the congress races that need support!

[JoFerret]

27. The topic name sucks the whole thing makes no sence.

What?

[Johnny Battleground]

42. Sense...

[futureliveshere]

7. The trouble is- your smash mouthed family smashed itself. Obama has run a SUPERB campaign.

[rodeodance]

59. Nothing super about race-baiting.

[phrigndumass]

8. Good luck with that, and welcome to DU!

:crazy:

[cali]

9. What? A hit and run poster for Hill? Somone who doesn't have the guts

to respond to comments? I'm shocked. Shocked I tell you!

[WolverineDG]

12. Paycheck bounced? nt

[Johnny Battleground]

18. No fear here...

But how does Obama win over the swing voters he, his wife, and Wright have dissed.
And Wright just went off again. Bringing it all to the fore again.

Will they ship him to Europe for the election?

[cali]

31. What makes you think he's lost swing voters? It's not like you

provided a shred of evidence. I could say the same thing about Hillary and AA and progressive voters. But I won't. I think the dem nominee has strong advantages- the failing economy, the war- and that McCain is a very weak candidate. You're just engaging in the wishful hillarian thinking that's endemic.

And in case you didn't notice, Obama handled the Wright affair effectively. What makes you think he won't do that in the GE- beyond your wishful thinking?

[Johnny Battleground]

44. Read the article...

He has a difficult time with the base and fence sitters in key states.

[BklnDem75]

50. It's an opinion piece

A very one sided opinion piece. Are we accepting opinions as facts now?

[izzie]

10. I will wait to the day after the vote.

I think Obama is the man for our times. We need this new blood but I am a very open minded person so I am sure all will not vote as I will. It is really hard to say what people vote on. My first vote was for Ike so I have been at this a long time and I will not go into how many times I have felt I was right but the guy I wanted did not get in.

[babylonsister]

11. Why is the Politico sounding like Mary Matalin?

:think:

[Champion Jack]

13. Because like the OP all they do is spew right wing horse shit

[babylonsister]

14. Matalin said the exact same thing yesterday about Obama

not being vetted. I'm thinking he has, and there are no skeletons. Wouldn't that piss off his competition.

[Johnny Battleground]

46. Who really cares where it came from...the question isn't...

... do we like it... the question is does this have merit?
I say yes... in spades (no pun intended).
If it does, then what to do?

I say dump Obama.
He got his lead before the poisoned baggage was revealed.

[kevinmc]

16. Don't worry about it ..... Hillary is dust and McCain wil follow when the debates start. n/t

[Gore1FL]

21. Wow...

combining Wright, Michelle Obama and bitterness together--the pretty much just makes a big non-issue out of three smaller, already weathered non-issues.

If any of this were really ture, he wouldn't still be trouncing Clinton.

[Johnny Battleground]

38. This came out after the trouncing began

That's the point.
He's damaged goods.
The republicans won't be so kind.

[Gore1FL]

61. So it came out in the future?

For no trouncing seems to be occurring, now and none has happened in the past.

[IndyHatedByBothSides]

22. Wright was a non-issue...

... with small-town rural voters like myself. We've all had preachers and parents with whose outrageous opinions on certain issues we disagreed. We don't throw them under the bus because of it. Which is why Obama's handling of the situation reassured us, and even increased his popularity.

However, bitter-gate is of a different order. This thing has legs, and Obama has handled it badly. The closest to which I can compare it is the Liberal Party's "beer and popcorn" comment during the last Canadian election. This is Hillary Harding's tire iron hitting the kneecap.

[DemVet]

23. "Hope", "Change", and "Yes We Can"...Lose the GE that is.

Saint Obama MUST NOT, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES be allowed to be the Democratic Nominee. If it takes a nasty floor fight at the convention to toss him out on his ass, I say it's time to get it on.

[yourguide]

34. "Yes We Will"...Lose the GE that is.

Senator Clinton MUST NOT, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES be allowed to be the Democratic Nominee. If it takes him beating her in pledged delegates, popular votes, and number of states won to toss her out on his ass, I say it's time to get it on.

[Johnny Battleground]

40. I agree... because he'll be in...

for real a bashing when the R's ramp it up.

He didn't answer the Wright issue, and they'll make sure it's noted.
You can bet their ammo is dry.
Why do anything when he's self destructing?

This is what pisses me off.
We get a candidate in the lead who wasn't asked jack,
His Hope, Change, Unity message was nice but there was no context.
No guts.

Then we get Wright, and it all explodes.
Worse, and the R's won't forget this... is he said nobody like Imus would be with him.
He'd be fired.

Time to get rid of a weak candidate.

[MattBaggins]

72. You want to destroy

the party don't you?

[Alter Ego]

26. Uh huh.

[LaurenG]

30. I don't think a republican will win this and

I totally disagree with this, totally.

[igor2008]

35. Bitter-gate is a distraction. There are still many MAJOR skeletons lurking

[LaurenG]

37. Well, spill it

what do you know that we don't?

[CK dexter]

36. All the evidence from the primaries suggests otherwise...

I personally think that both Hillary and Obama would have very similar odds against McCain. On the one hand, the democrats are better poised to win than they have been in a long time. On the other, both candidates' chances will be seriously hurt by the prejudices they'll have to overcome to win. Those prejudices are deep seated, and may very well outweigh the advantage the dems have.

Put another way: it is reasonable to worry that the dems won't win, but it is utterly foolish to suggest Hillary has a significantly better chance. I think the staggering amount of generalized hatred for Hillary (overwhelmingly the product of a vindictive, unfair republican hate campaign that began during Bill's first run, but aggravated by her embarrassing and shameful tactics in this campaign), very seriously hurts her chances of winning. So I'd give the edge to Obama. They sexism and racism hurdle is hard to quantify but I'd guess they're close if not equal, but she has the additional hurdle of a widespread (mostly irrational and sexist) hatred of her very person that hasn't mellowed in 15 years.

[Hepburn]

39. Your logic (for lack of better terms) is fucked up.

Clinton is losing to Obama, but will win against McCain.

Sure...and I gotta bridge I would just love to sell you. :eyes:

[Johnny Battleground]

41. Time for a little logic you may have missed while walking your Scottie

Obama got his lead before the Wright-bomb exploded.
If it happened earlier he would be long gone.

[Symarip]

43. Keep grasping at those straws (nt)

[SoxFan]

45. Who is saying this? let's take a look.

"Democratic lawmakers, veteran lobbyists, and campaign operatives"

In other words, the same tired, old political hacks who got us into our current predicament. The people who have a vested political and financial interest in a system driven by cronyism, logrolling, and character assasination.

We finally have a presumptive nominee who believes in transparency, change, and reform, and they immediately start in with a lot of sour bitching.

[Johnny Battleground]

48. Our current predicament is the result of bad vetting...

... and a candidate with toxic baggage.
The problem is his problems were not revealed fast enough.

Better now than letting him waltze his butt into the GE to have Wright revealed.
He's toast, but maybe he won't be the nominee.
That's my hope... because he can't win with Wright as a necklace.

[SoxFan]

49. He's the nominee

Get on board or take your Fox news talking points and go pound sand.

[Name removed]

51. Deleted message

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[Bensthename]

52. Yah we have a problem. Your candidate is taking Obama's words out of context.

Shame on you Hillary.. Enough with your lies, and GOP tactics..

[Name removed]

53. Deleted message

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[Name removed]

57. Deleted message

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[rodeodance]

58. That the media is hardly vetting him is KEY.

[bvar22]

62. Your "smash mouth politician (family) ...

Your "smash mouth politician (family) who knows how to fight and win" is losing badly to Obama.

What does that tell you?



Messianic Pathology

"She and Bill Clinton both devoutly believe that Obama’s likely victory is a disaster-in-waiting. Naive Democrats just don’t see it."

Thank You Jesus/Hillary for stepping in and saving us ignorant voters from our sins of supporting Obama. Only Hillary can save us from our "naive" selves.


This is actually a not so clever rationalization for the Republican-like gutter attacks on Obama. It is an excuse for crossing lines that should not be crossed (like endorsing McCain over Obama).
We have to sink to this level because Hillary ("Goddess of Peace") is saving the Democratic Party. Its not for us. Its for the little children. :puke:


Request:
If someone has that cartoon of Hillary nailing herself to the cross while her acolytes weep at her feet.....Please post it here.

[cooolandrew]

64. Hillary lost to a newcomer and Obama has survived several kithen sinks. He's vetted.

[Texas Hill Country]

65. k&r

[mrreowwr_kittty]

66. Then why are the Clintons losing to Obama? nt

[BlooInBloo]

67. Welcome to DU. You'll fit right in with your love of drudgico.

[endarkenment]

69. Thank you for this low post count crap fest.

What would a day in GDP be without posts like this?

[cliffordu]

70. Ghouls and goblins come callin'

not to worry, though, I have freepbegone!!

Minty Fresh!!!

:hi:

[billyoc]

71. Back to the mothership, dittohead. nt

[VotesForWomen]

74. yep; the O-ists won't know what hit them. nt

[NDambi]

75. Yeah Yeah...the black man will fail us all...once again. We know already thanks though

Yawwwwwwnnn!

[Vinca]

77. Well, maybe you're on to something. After all, who says we can't

win against Lewinsky/Jones/Flowers/Willy/the blue dress/Nafta lies/Bosnia lies, etc., with a candidate - Hillary Clinton - who will unify the Republican party like no other person on the planet can. Maybe I'm just naive - but, of course, you remind me of that on a daily basis.

[Lord Helmet]

78. Clinton's negatives rate her just above the clap.