Huge Pew Poll: Bush Over Kerry 46-42 (Iraq/Favorability/Women Up For Bush)

[TheStateChief]

The survey shows that President Bush has improved his political standing over the past month. His overall approval rating increased slightly, from 44% in May to 48%. Notably, all of Bush's gains occurred after Reagan's death on June 5. Prior to that, Bush's approval rating was the same as in May (48% disapprove/44% approve). But during the remainder of the polling period (June 6-13), Bush's approval rating increased to 50%.

Bush also has gained ground in the presidential race. He currently is in a dead heat with Sen. John Kerry (48% Bush/46% Kerry) in a two-person contest; last month, Bush trailed Kerry by five points. When Ralph Nader is included, Bush leads by a slight margin (46%-42%).

The campaign continues to be dominated by feelings about Bush, but anti-Bush sentiment has subsided slightly. Just over a quarter of voters (27%) say they support Kerry based on their opposition to the president, down from 32% last month. Over the same period, Kerry's overall horse race support has fallen from 50% to 46%.

Favorable views of Kerry have slipped since his successful run through the Democratic primaries, as opinions of the presumptive Democratic nominee have grown more partisan. Currently, 50% have a positive impression of the Massachusetts Democrat – down from 58% in February – while negative opinions have increased sharply, from 28% to 41%.

---------

Reading this survey shows that while Bush is still struggling to reach 50% in a number of important areas he is trending up. He has made up 7 points on Kerry in the last month in Pew poll. Bush's overall favorability in the Battleground states is higher than the national average. Kerry is viewed less favorably by Democrats (by -3%) by Republicans (by -14%) and by independents (by -10) from just a month ago. Nobody likes Nader. A majority think Bush will be re-elected. 57% now think the war in Iraq is going very or fairly well (that's a +11 point gain in just a month). A similar number now think the war in Iraq was the right decision.

On the bright side more people are paying attention to the skyrocketing gas prices and are more worried about terrorism (although most seem to think that benefits Bush - although you would think it would hurt him).

[JI7]

1. so he did gain about 5 points from reagan's death

i always said that if he gains it will most likely happen after the eulogy and we would have to wait about a week to see if he gained and it seems he has. but not much. it was all reagan all the time for a bit over a whole week.

[amlouden]

3. it won't last

n/t

[Guaranteed]

2. Okay, again, don't freak out.

There's your Reagan bump. It'll go away.

[OneBlueSky]

10. I won't freak out, but Kerry is running a lackluster campaign at best . .

yeah, I know all about not interrupting your opponent when he's self-destructing, but at some point Kerry is going to have to get the electorate excited about voting for HIM, not just against Bush . . . instead of tacitly approving of the fact that we're in Iraq, he has to come out foursquare against it, call it the huge fraud that it is, and pledge to extract us ASAP . . . anything less is just Bush lite, and for the great unwashed, that's no reason to switch . . .

[JI7]

14. read the news

he is out there campaigning and telling why people should vote for him. the big media isn't reporting it. but that's why he is going directly to the people and getting good crowds and good reviews. just because the big media doesn't report it doesn't mean it's not happening. this is what happened in iowa. they didn't report on kerry but he was still out there campaigning and doing great and it showed when people went to vote.

[Doug Decker]

4. Has a president ever won an election with an approval...

lower than 50%? Check pollkatz.com for:

[tritsofme]

6. But he hasn't crossed the point of no return....yet

Carter and poppy had both found themselves in the 30% range some time in the month of June, most polls don't even have him in the low 40s.

That means that it could still go either way, and no one should rest assured that we have the election rapped up.

I posted this a few weeks ago:

Bush is not in the range that Clinton, Reagan, or Nixon were at when they went on to win reelection handily, but he has neither slid down to the level where Carter and Bush41 were at when they lost big. However, his approval does slightly mirror Ford in 1976, where the race in the popular vote went on to be very close. I say this election will stay true to the conventional wisdom, and be a nail biter.

These are the May/ early June approval ratings and horse race numbers for the last 6 presidential elections involving incumbents.

(all info from the Gallup Organization)

June 3-6 2004
Bush Approval: 49%
Kerry 50% Bush 44%

May 28-29 1996
Clinton Approval: 53%
Clinton 47% Dole 30% Perot 16%

June 6-8 1992
Bush Approval: 36%
Perot 35% Bush 30% Clinton 22%

June 1-3 1984
Reagan Approval: 52%
Reagan 50% Mondale 42%

June 10 1980
Carter Approval 32%
Carter 33% Reagan 30% Anderson 21%

June 8 1976
Ford Approval: 45%
Carter 55% Ford 34%


June 13 1972
Nixon Approval: 59%
Nixon 42% McGovern 31% Wallace 19%

[Doug Decker]

7. I'd never advocate not working as hard as we can...

to win this election and make sure every vote is counted.

But I think you answered my question, when an incumbent is lower than 50% approval at this level, he is not historically been re-(s)elected.

Do I think * will cheat and steal to do the same thing he did in 2000?. Of course, but even turd blossum must realize that the boy king is not in very good shape.

Now F9/11 is coming out and so is the Clinton book, the Plame investigation and the Delay ethics complaint. Iraq is heading for a hot, difficult summer. The economy sputters along and Greenspan is floating interest rate increases on the horizon. And gas prices are causing big headaches.

[Leilani]

38. Carter & Poppy did not have a loyal base, like Shrub

Face it, with all the problems with this admin, his approval ratings have never gone as low as we would expect.

The country is more polarized now; Shrub could go on a murder spree, & his ratings will stay in the 40 something range.

And no matter what Kerry says or does, his ratings will stay at 40 something.

It will be the undecideds, Indies, & a small group that will decide this election.

Also, turnout is crucial. Whoever gets his people to the polls will probably win.

[LabMonkey]

11. How many sitting Senators have been elected Pres. in the last 100 years?

[tritsofme]

12. John F. Kennedy

and that's about it.

[MoonRiver]

21. How many have run?

[LabMonkey]

24. Dole, Dukakis.

[LabMonkey]

25. correction, Dukakis was a Governor from Mass.

[tritsofme]

29. Kennedy Goldwater McGovern Dole

I think thats about it...

[PROGRESSIVE1]

5. The Reagan bump shouldn't last past this month!

[beyurslf]

8. Reagan bump.... When the flags go back up next month, the polls for Bush

start going down.

[I thought so.]

9. How about a link?

I hope it isn't so HUGE as to damage my computer.

[incapsulated]

13. Why are Kerry's negatives going up?

That has nothing to do with a "Reagan bump".

This concerns me, although it's only one poll.

Link, please?

[Still_Loves_John]

34. It says that they've gone up since the end of the primaries

which should be expected. Now that more people know who he is, more people are gonna not like him. They've only gone up because people who aren't political but vote Republican now know not to like Kerry.

[incapsulated]

35. Wait a minute...

I don't remember the specific polls, but after he started running his national commercials, after the Bush onslaught, his positives went up. So this, if true, would be a reversal of a trend, not a continuation.

[Still_Loves_John]

36. Yes, but

negatives don't correspond perfectly with positives. The positives went up because undecideds started leaning towards him, but there will still be negative numbers.

This article mentions that Kerry's negatives have gone up right after it talks about Bush's positives recently going up, so you might get confused and think that Kerry's negatives went up because of Reagan too, but the article says that the negatives have gone up since the primaries, during which they were artificially low because no one knew who he is. Kerry's negatives have not recently gone up.

[incapsulated]

37. Yeah, you are probably right

I didn't think of it that way.

[zulchzulu]

15. Women for Bush...until they figure out his "Pro-Life" stance

Then they are way outta there. Unless they are...yunno.



..hopeless.

[radfringe]

16. Iraq-terrorism

http://www.pollingreport.com/

[deminflorida]

17. If Kerry adds Dick Gephardt to his ticket right now you can hang

it up until 2008, and I guess we'll all just jump on the Hillary BandWagon...then...or become so un-interested while trying to survive in a Fascist State that we split in different directions and cease to exist as a National Party...

Just like the Freepers have predicted.

Clark or Edwards....could possibly change the direction of these poll numbers before it's too late...

Personally I'd take Clark...

Edwards can talk One America and Economy but chances are numbers in employment (even though lower paying), consumer confidence, and possibly other economic indicators will still continue to rise.

Clark can talk about what has gone wrong in Iraq while Bush says what's right about it....the only difference is that the background noise will be bombs continuing to go off in the streets of Baghdad.

[BootinUp]

18. hang in there deminflorida

It ain't over till the fat lady sings. As the incumbent GW is bound to gain back some in the polls this far from the election. I also think he's had a free ride for the last couple weeks or more, and Kerry will pick up the attack again in a big way. VP announcement, convention, and then start pouring it on. This thing has a long way to go.

:)

[GOPBasher]

19. "Nobody likes Nader."

That was funny. LOL

[dusty64]

20. This "poll" is

a reeking pantload of crap. I don't believe a word of it and see it more as a desperate last stand to "boost" chimpy's numbers, lets see if these results are shown in other polls.

[leyton]

27. I refuse to believe any poll showing Bush ahead...

because such a thing obviously means the poll is defective. I trust all polls showing Kerry ahead and none of those showing Bush ahead. Somebody get me a gun so I can shoot the messenger.

[Donny247]

22. Huge????

First of all, this poll is no more "huge" than the LA Times and Gallup polls done last week which show the exact opposite. Secondly, this poll always shows Bush doing better than the other polls. Finally, if the Reagan "bounce" can't even get Bush above 50% in a Bush-leaning poll, then he is in serious trouble.

[Beetwasher]

23. My Sentiments Exactly...Huge? Hardly...

N/T

[TheStateChief]

26. I was referring to the amount of info it contained

It covered a lot of bases.

[tritsofme]

30. Pew is quite unbiased, and I don't think they swing toward *

The LA Times poll had some structural problems and the Gallup poll is outdated.

[spooky3]

32. Not according to Pollkatz's data: Pew favors Bush.

http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/bushindexprobushtable.htm

[West Coast Democrat]

28. Haven't seen you around for a while, Chief!

A lot of polls came out before Reagan died.

[Larkspur]

31. Looks like Bush's ads have had an effect on Kerry's lackluster image

Kerry's positive impression dropped 8 pts and his negatives rose 13 pts.

Of course, this could be a strategy by Kerry to do what he claims he likes to do, win from behind. :eyes:

[spooky3]

33. Link? Your summary didn't include the data for women.

[DaveSZ]

40. Yep

If Kerry picks Gep he's through.

I hope he's not that foolish.

Let's hope Moore's movie damages shrub more.

[West Coast Democrat]

39. Bush's Iraq Handling Disapproval goes up!!

51% disapprove (42% approve) of Bush's handling of Iraq, versus 48% and 44% in the last poll

Also, 44% believe Iraq has hurt the War on Terrorism, up 7% from the last poll.

These are very poor numbers for Bushie--Reagan can't help him here

http://www.pollingreport.com/iraq.htm

[neverforget]

41. So Bush benefits from the deaths of others...AGAIN! And who are

these people that suddenly like Bush because Reagan died? What a bunch non-thinking, shallow people!