Prediction: The Vice-Presidential nominee is........

[Padraig18]

One of the most interesting aspects surrounding the speculation about likely Vice-Presidential has been the abundance of detail put forward by those who marshal facts in favor of their favored choice(s). Rather than finding this to be annoying, I have in fact found it incredibly comforting and reassuring: we Democrats have a wealth of talented individuals who are quite capable of distinguishing themselves in the second-highest office in our Republic.

That said, I must also note that this same process resembles in many respects the ancient Roman augurs studying pigeon entrails in an attempt to divine an omen that indicates just who it is the gods favor. *grin* Is it someone with extensive foreign-policy experience? Someone with a strong domestic message? Someone with great appeal to independents and disaffected, moderate Republicans? An experienced legislative leader? Perhaps someone with excellent organizational skills and a large, grassroots following? *picks among the 'entrails'*... ;) I won't keep you in suspense any longer; THIS is the person Sen. Kerry will choose:

The person Sen. Kerry will choose ( or has likely already chosen ) will be, first and foremost, someone he can TRUST implicitly, someone who will always 'have his back'. Anyone who thinks this isn't important hasn't been paying close attention to Sen. Kerry. Personal loyalty, coupled with the savvy to understand what truly is and is not a threat to Kerry, will be the MINIMUM requirement to serve as John Kerry's VP. Sen. Kerry's VP will not simply be a partner, but a true friend, colleague and ally.

The person will also be someone who demonstrates the political skills necessary to 'reach across the aisle' and effectively engage members of the opposition. Why? Because I firmly believe that Sen. Kerry intends to put an end to the decade-long political 'war' started by Newt Gingrich and the radical-right wing of the Republican party. Sen. Kerry has seen and understands that the American people are thoroughly sick and tired of the 'politics of personal destruction'. Sen. Kerry has clearly signaled this intention by publicly meeting with Sen. McCain, and allowing speculation about a Kerry/McCain ticket to go forth, until squelched by Sen. McCain himself.

The 'chosen one' will also be someone who fundamentally agrees with Sen. Kerry on the broad issues facing our nation; he/she need not agree in every detail to the 'nth degree', but shares views that are largely convergent with Kerry's own. 'Domestic tranquility' within the Executive Branch will be needed and assured a priori.

The VP nominee will be someone who complements but does not 'upstage' Sen. Kerry himself. His/her talents will 'dovetail' with Sen. Kerry's own formidable ones, without overshadowing them. He will 'backfill' in areas in which the Senator is rightly or wrongfully perceived as being 'weak'. He will be the 'plebeian' to Kerry's 'patrician', and will bring warmth, cordiality and genuine bonhomie to Kerry's perceived 'aloofness' and reserve.

Finally, the person chosen as Kerry's running mate will demonstrate a minimum level of competence regarding both domestic- and foreign-policy issues; the running mate may well not be the person with the MOST experience in a given area or areas, but he will have demonstrated both minimum skills and a general 'upward learning curve', overall. The person Kerry chooses to run with him will be someone Sen. Kerry himself can envision as occupying the Oval Office in his own right without having heart failure.

So, to answer the question about who it's going to be, my answer is...









































Beats the hell outta me; I don't know any more than anyone else does, but I'd bet my last nickle that it's someone who fits ALL of the criteria I laid out.

Cheers! ;)

[Catch22Dem]

1. That was a very good post

well thoght out and well written. The pigeon entrails was the best part though. I have no idea who he will pick either, but if you need me, I'll be hanging out by the overpass looking for some pigeons.

[Padraig18]

2. Thanks!

I have some corn to use as bait, if you need any. ;)

[Catch22Dem]

3. HAHA

I'll have to try that. I already have some tea leaves and some chicken bones.

BTW, I just finished reading the Chris Heinz thread. You did a good job. I had no idea what I'd be missing when I arbitrarily decided to take a DU break last night. That's my luck!

[Padraig18]

4. Chris isn't a prolific poster, but he's well worth reading when he does.

Thanks for the compliment!

:hi:

[Skwmom]

5. Is this a joke?

"Finally, the person chosen as Kerry's running mate will demonstrate a minimum level of competence regarding both domestic- and foreign-policy issues; the running mate may well not be the person with the MOST experience in a given area or areas, but he will have demonstrated both minimum skills and a general 'upward learning curve', overall."

So what your telling me is Kerry will select someone who can't immediately step into the roll of commander in chief to be a heart beat away from the presidency during these extremely difficult times because he doesn't want to be overshadowed? That really feels me with confidence about the Democratic ticket.

[Padraig18]

6. That's not what I said at all.

I made it clear that a minimum level of competence in all areas will be required from ALL potential VP nominees; that said, I don't neccessarily believe that any ONE factor will outweigh any other, but that ALL factors will be weighed in sum. I also said this, which you may have overlooked:

"...The person Kerry chooses to run with him will be someone Sen. Kerry himself can envision as occupying the Oval Office in his own right without having heart failure...."

[Skwmom]

7. Wow a "minimum" level of competence.

That makes me feel better. Our country is in a crisis. We are standing on the brink of something that will make the great depression pale in comparison (and most of our former allies would probably secretly cheer if it occurs). And this is the type of ticket the Democrats plan to offer up? I'm stunned because I really thought the Democrats were better than this. Clinton/Gore was a very qualified ticket on both ends (and really told me something about Clinton the man despite all the muck the Republicans threw at him).

[Padraig18]

8. I'm not understanding the objection, it seems.

Absolutely no one thought to be under serious consideration for the job is the most competent in every area of foreign and domestic policy, so having at least a minimum level of competence in every area, coupled with the demonstrated ability to learn quickly that which one knows less well seems to me to be a positive thing. What am I not understanding, or failing to elucidate?

:shrug:

[wjsander]

10. You have to be careful around the Clarkies

If it's not raining praise, some might question it without any sense of humor whatsoever.

[MontecitoDem]

12. Many of us "Clarkies"

got and appreciated Padraig's post. here's one of them!

Thanks Padraig - you are right and I STILL have no idea who it is going to be.

[juajen]

19. Kudos to this post, also from a Clarkie

N/T

[Padraig18]

23. Thanks!

We just got to trust Sen. Kerry to do the right thing, and I'm sure he will.:)

[armymom]

9. Kerry/Clark 04 is my prediction!

A couple of major points: As campaigns have merged, no doubt there are Edwards supporters who want their guy to be VP. Cohen is a republican and has given NO sign of supporting Kerry, and has been non-committal about Iraq and everything else. Neither he nor Shelton are on Kerry's Military Advisory Group OR on the foreign policy "pooh-bahs" team. The Edwardians may circulate the Shelton/Cohen crap behind the scenes, but obviously their opinions don't count, because General Clark is part of the Military Advisory Group AND the foreign policy "pooh-bahs." Edwards is not on either advisory group.

I choose to believe what I have seen the Kerry campaign actually do, not what unnamed sources or anonymous people claim. Sen Kerry has Clark and Edwards both out raising money, BUT since Edwards BOMBED on Imus 6-8 weeks ago, I haven't seen him on any tv or radio program for the Kerry campaign. Not only is the General on tv, radio, and writing substantive articles for the campaign, Kerry has placed the General on both the foreign policy AND military advisory boards. He doesn't let Edwards do anything substantive, just preach to the faithful and pass the bucket. The Kerrys and the Clarks have much in common - both couples are well-traveled, culturally aware, speak multiple languages. It just seems a better fit.

Kerry's Senior Military Advisory Group consists of prominent retired admirals and general officers who are advising his campaign on defense and national security issues. "I am honored to have such a distinguished group of experienced military leaders and professionals working with me on the vital security challenges facing our nation," said Kerry. (The full list is below.)

Kerry has said his national security policy will be guided by four imperatives: building and leading new alliances; modernizing the military; deploying all that is in America's arsenal - the power of our economy, our diplomacy, our intelligence capabilities and our values and ideas; and freeing America from its dangerous dependence on Mideast oil.

Kerry's Military Advisor Committee, formed two weeks ago:

Admiral William Crowe (USN, Ret.)
Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

General John Shalikashvili (USA, Ret.)
Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

General Tony McPeak (USAF, Ret.)
Former US Air Force Chief of Staff

Admiral Stansfield Turner, (USN, Ret.)
Former Director, Central Intelligence Agency

General Joseph Hoar (USMC, Ret)
Former Commander-in-Chief, US Central Command

General Wesley Clark (USA, Ret.)
Former Supreme Allied Commander Europe

General Johnnie Wilson, (USA, Ret.)
Former Commander, US Army Material Command
(CAMPAIGNED EXTENSIVELY WITH THE GENERAL AND GERT)

LTG Daniel Christman (USA, Ret.)
Former Superintendent US Military Academy

LTG General Kennedy (USA, Ret.)
Former Deputy Army Chief of Staff for Intelligence

Vice Admiral Lee Gunn (USN, Ret.)
Former Inspector General, US Navy

Major General Harry Jenkins (USMC, Ret.)
Former Chief Legislative Liaison US Marine Corps

http://www.johnkerry.com/pressroom/releases/pr_2004_0603.html

NOTICE - NO SHELTON, NO COHEN, NO "INTELLIGENCE EXPERT" EDWARDS on the military panel - 'NUFF SAID

**Kerry's Foreign Policy Team, or as he calls them, The Pooh-bahs:**
Foreign Policy Team Takes Center Stage
World Events Help Change Focus of Kerry Campaign
By Robin Wright
Washington Post Staff Writer - Sunday, May 30, 2004
....
Since Kerry wrapped up the presidential nomination in March, however, many of the Democratic Party all-stars have signed on and are injecting new energy. Now in the midst of an 11-day blitz on foreign policy, Kerry is also being advised by former secretary of state Madeleine K. Albright, former U.N. ambassadors Richard C. Holbrooke and Bill Richardson, former defense secretary William J. Perry, former Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Gen. John M. Shalikashvili, former NATO commander Gen. Wesley K. Clark, and Sen. Joseph R. Biden (Del.), ranking Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee.
....
Kerry's staff jokingly calls the inner circle the Pooh-bahs, from the 1885 Gilbert and Sullivan opera "The Mikado." The word originally meant "Lord-High-Everything-Else" and has come to signify a person of great influence or high position...

NOTICE AGAIN - NO SHELTON, NO COHEN, NO "INTELLIGENCE EXPERT" EDWARDS ON THE FOREIGN POLICY PANEL- 'NUFF SAID

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A1438-2004May29.html

[Qutzupalotl]

15. Welcome to DU, armymom.

I hope your prediction is right. :)

[newyawker99]

16. Hi armymom!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Celtic Mama]

11. Kerry/Clark

Wes Clark has all the attributes that Kerry needs.

[newyawker99]

17. Hi Celtic Mama!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Darkamber]

13. bases on your excellent post...it screams...Gephardt....

He basically everything that you lay out.

Kerry trust him and sees him as someone who will always have his back and is a true friend and ally.

He has the ability to cross across lines and make things happen. He's done it during the Clinton age. He's fought against great odds and made things happen.

On issues...I think they both agree on everything. They have known each other forever.

The next one is questionable in terms of bring warmth to Kerry, but Gephardt does come from a humble working man background and he wouldn't upstage Kerry. He is well liked though.

And finally he has competence in both Domestic and Foreign issues. For anyone who wants to question that just look at his congress web site which lists his background. It might blow you away if you bothered to look.

Even after all this and I think that Gephardt has very good odds at being the one...I'll add just some personal notes.

In the Primary Race, I wanted to support Gephardt when I didn't know any of the candidates. Long before Clark came into the picture. I have always respected and him and he's more of a moderate like myself. I heard Edwards on the radio and was amazed by him and his proposals because it was like listening to someone who knew exactly my concerns and proposed plans just like I would want. But I still kept my eye on Gephardt.

Debates came and I was almost embarrassed by Gephardt. I felt like he was living in the past. He kept saying over and over again, "When Clinton was President, I did this" "Or we faced this when Clinton was President". I didn't want to go back, I wanted to go forward. I wanted something fresh and new. Then there was his famous "Miserable failure" line. I could see the Swing Repubs...running as quick as they could to Bush and slamming the door behind them. Add to that his proposal to remove all of the Bush tax cuts and I cringed..it was like the kiss of death.

All that said...based on what is proposed by Padraig18 as what Kerry is looking for I would have to say Gephardt is the one he will pick. And I am a Edwards supporter, but I'm trying to be objective and realistic here.

[katusha]

14. nice analysis

and a pleasure to read. thanks for this in a storm of "it's geppy" "it's edwards" "it's clark" it's nice to see an analysis of traits not personalities.

[Padraig18]

18. We have to trust Sen. Kerry on this one.

Like almost everyone here, I have contenders that I like better than others, but I will support anyone Sen. Kerry picks; his judgment has been quite sound, so far, and I have no reason to believe that it will be an less so in regards to this vitally-important matter.

[katusha]

22. no argument here

hey i voted for lieberman as VP in 2000 so unless kerry picks bush as his running mate i should have noproblem voting for him.

[mzmolly]

20. LOL... Graham is who it will be...

:hi:

[JohnLocke]

21. Vilsack

[Still_Loves_John]

24. My guess is...

Edwards if it is one of the obvious, talked about people, Governor Warner if it's one of the more esoteric choices.

[Leilani]

25. Very nice post!

And I agree with you...

I am a rabid Clarkie, however I feel Sen Kerry will select Dick Gephardt.

He fits your profile perfectly, & Kerry feels most comfortable with him.

Kerry seems to be running a very careful race, marathon style vs sprint, & Gephardt also fits this scenario.

Gephardt will be safe; not exciting, but reliable, dependable, & mistake proof.

[bigwillq]

26. Hey, great post

Especially like the last of your points--

"The person Kerry chooses to run with him will be someone Sen. Kerry himself can envision as occupying the Oval Office in his own right without having heart failure."

That's great. Had me laughing out loud.

I agree that the person Kerry chooses should have all those qualities you mentioned. I don't think Shrub took any of this into consideration when he picked Mr. Dick.

edit: spell

[Spazito]

27. LOL! Excellent post!

As a Canadian, I am watching the debate over VP possibilites with fascination and have my own favorite, not that it matters, and I totally agree with your summary of the choice.