Is Kerry pursuing "swing voters" for strategic reasons? Is that wise?

[BurtWorm]

Is pursuit of swing voters a concession to Republicans that the turf to fight over--i.e., the total number of participating voters in the electorate--is set (or shrinking)? Would it be a better strategy to aggressively pursue potential voters who have been sitting out elections, to increase the rolls to counter Republican efforts to shrink them? Shouldn't Kerry be pursuing young voters, for example, and women voters, and minority voters, and senior voters?

Or is Kerry pursuing swing voters for philosophical reasons--i.e., because he really is as conservative as such a strategy requires him to appear?

[David Dunham]

1. Swing voters decide elections. Non-voters just keep not voting.

[CTLawGuy]

2. of course it's wise

What, are you a Bush supporter?


How dare you question the perfect nature of John F. Kerry.









(/sarcasm)

[WI_DEM]

3. swing voters are important but so is the base

Frankly, I don't see Kerry paying much attention to the base. I don't see much enthusiasm for him in the African American community for instance. Clinton was wildly popular with AA and so was Gore, infact, the reason Gore won the popular vote in 2000 was due to a strong turnout in the AA community. I don't see that kind of enthusiasm for Kerry (as yet). Not that he won't probably get 90% of the AA vote but will the turnout levels be as good as they were for Clinton or Gore is the question.

[BurtWorm]

5. I've heard that Kerry is a late bloomer in all his campaigns.

I can only hope it's true. If I were religious, I'd pray! ;)

PS: Can Mass. Kerry watchers confirm whether or not he ever pays attention to minority voters, for example?

[lancdem]

8. That's a good question

A lot of African Americans are pissed at what happened in Florida in 2000 and they can't stand Bush. Eventually I believe they'll warm to Kerry. That might be one of ways Clinton helps him - by energizing AA voters.

[wtmusic]

4. Unless liberals have another option

he'll go as far right as is practically possible, AND try to get everyone else to the polls.

Don't believe he'll lose many "potential" votes from going right (within reason).

[BurtWorm]

7. Isn't the danger that he'll turn off liberals?

How right can he go before he endangers himself? He's really taking for granted that ABB is a silver bullet. It may be, but then again, he might be really surprised.

[leyton]

6. There's a simple mathematical reason...

Every time Kerry convinces one swing voter, he's gained one vote and Bush has lost one. Every time he convinces one new voter, Kerry gains one vote but Bush doesn't lose any. Furthermore, the 'potential voters' haven't voted before, so why rely on them now if they're aren't prone to voting anyway?

Last, what makes you think that women voters and senior voters aren't swing voters?

[bullimiami]

9. I dont know

For me.

Im very liberal, reg dem so I can vote in the primaries but my leanings are far further left than anything Ive seen of kerry. At least as far left as Dennis K.

and....

There is no way I wouldnt vote for Kerry in this election.

So from my perspective Kerry doesnt have to "win" my vote and I dont expect there is anything he is likely to do to lose it.
He could get me more excited but Im perfectly willing to accept him as the best choice.

[BurtWorm]

11. It would seem to me that this is the year to get people excited to

throw the bastards out. I personally don't understand Kerry's aversion to excitement.

[JI7]

25. there is no aversion to excitement

he did get most people to vote for him. many people like myself are excited about him and doing what we can for him. you might not like him. but the majority of those who voted in the primary do like him and are very happy with him.

[BurtWorm]

26. I'm curious: What excites you about Kerry?

I hope you won't regard this as a hostile question and refuse to answer. I'm honestly interested to know if Kerry-qua-Kerry induces passion in someone and how he does it.

[JI7]

27. many things

he has a good understanding of people and things even though it doesn't personally affect him or he hasn't had much experience in dealing with it himself. he doesn't come from a place where many people do but he goes to them and listens to their stories and problems and offers solutions to help them. i liked how he worked hard to earn the votes he got and seeing him with the people. he came to los angeles and met with workers on strike and they told me how he didn't just say he will do this and that but he listened and his answers to them showed he really understood them.

long before he ran for president he went to places most politicians don't go to help those who most needed help but werne't getting it. he helped set up programs for kids who needed a place to go after school. he saw the affects of thingslike environmental racism . he attended international conferences on environment and specifically global warming for decades.

and kerry doesn't try to be something he isn't as bush does by putting on a fake "common working man" act. he understands that he had priveledges that allowed him opportunities that most don't have and he used that to do good.

[BurtWorm]

10. I guess I was trying to suggest that women and seniors can be fired up

to go in masses to the polls in a way swing voters cannot. Swing voters will go to the polls, because they're nice responsible citizens who feel enfranchised and who have the luxury of casually deciding whom to pull the lever for. And of course that describes many individual women and seniors.

However, Kerry could choose to get angry on behalf of seniors, for example, that Republicans did what they did with prescription drugs and Medicare and compel them to throng to the polls to throw out the bastards who did it to them. In which case, Bush might still be picking up some marginal voters and shaving others off the roles, but Kerry would be growing the electorate, making what Bush picks up or shaves off in the margins even more marginal.

[CTLawGuy]

12. not quite

A "swing voter" is just as likely to not vote as a "non-voter". If a swing voter does not like either candidate, he will likely stay home, becoming a non-voter. If Kerry convinces a non-voter to vote for him, kerry gains, and bush loses a vote he could have gotten. Unless the swing voter is already in Bush's camp, he's not likely to get them. They know him, and if they liked him terribly, they'd probably support him. It's the power of incumbency; people don't want to change horses in midstream, to use a cliche. They won't look at Kerry unless they are dissatisfied. If they end up not liking kerry either, they'll probably just stay home.

In short, Kerry needs to motivate people to vote for him. Someone from the Electoral Graveyard is just as good as a swing voter. It's one vote. Also remember Bush has the exact same access to the non-voters as Kerry does.

[jpgray]

28. Betting on people who are defined by not voting is a silly strategy

Ralph Nader does it every election, for example--his candidacy is ostensibly about speaking for the non-voters who are supposedly waiting for a progressive miracle but never vote for it when it does appear (Kucinich, Nader, Dean if you want to include him). Perhaps his campaign does win over the non-voters in the sense that they continue to not vote for him.

[Classical_Liberal]

13. I think he wants them because he is conservative

philosophically. It isn't a strategy it actually reflect dlc beliefs.

[Monte Carlo]

14. Most voters don't make up their mind until just before election day.

... if not right there at the voting booth, and I do mean 'most'.

Kerry's not trying to win over die-hard Republican voters - that would waste a lot of time and energy for little gain. He's trying to sway those who normally aren't political, who normally don't identify with a political party. These make up the bulk of U.S. voters, and they spook easy.

Philisophical reasons? Come on, now, that's just silly.

[BurtWorm]

16. What are you basing that statement on?

It would surprise me if more than 10% didn't know whom they were voting for. It would actually surprise me if as *much* as 10% didn't know!

[Monte Carlo]

17. Something picked up in class.

This election might be somewhat different, but most voters are simply not politically active like here at DU. Some go back and forth between the candidates, some might just flip a coin on election day.

[BurtWorm]

18. Yet the electorate is notoriously divided

between the blue and red states, so they say. The polls have seemed to reflect this half and half polarization, which seems to have only further cemented since 2000.

It seems to me that the electorate is shaking down to the true believers, who will turn out and reliably vote Republican or Democratic, even among the Independents, who seem to divide between Libertarian leaners, who vote Republican when push comes to shove and Green leaners, who can be convinced to vote Democratic, given a sufficiently left of center candidate. Then there's everyone else, a majority, actually--60% in the last election--who feel too disenfranchised to vote.

[TexasSissy]

15. It's wise if we want to win, IMO.

My understanding is that 10% of the voters in the approx. 16 battleground states will be deciding this election. Those 10% are undecided. The true Dems and true Repubs have decided.

So these are swing voters/undecideds/moderates - whatever you want to call them.

I don't know this personally. Just what I've been reading for a year or so.

[JI7]

19. swing voters vote, unlike non voters

[BurtWorm]

21. So he should concede the shrunken democracy?

He should take the democracy as the Repubs have forged it?

[JI7]

22. nobody is preventing the non voters from voting

if they don't want to vote it's their choice. and there are some who never voted that will be voting for kerry for the first time. some will vote for bush. i know many who don't vote just because they don't care. and they aren't angry or feel none of the candidates speak to them. they just have no interest in politics. they are into things like american idol and vote in that. but they just aren't into politics.

i myself have already convinced a few to register and vote for kerry. this was done in the primary also. we got regular voters to vote for kerry, and we convinced some who never voted before to vote for kerry. some even disagree with kerry on a few issues. some disagree with him on abortion rights, but like his position on small business. some disagree with him on taxes but like his position on abortion.

2000 was the first presidential election i was old enough to vote in. i voted for gore of course but i wasn't as big a fan of him as i am of kerry. but i did learn a little bit during that campaign from people who worked in the campaign and just reading things. this allowed me to do a few things on my own to help get support for kerry.

[JI7]

23. nobody is preventing the non voters from voting

if they don't want to vote it's their choice. and there are some who never voted that will be voting for kerry for the first time. some will vote for bush. i know many who don't vote just because they don't care. and they aren't angry or feel none of the candidates speak to them. they just have no interest in politics. they are into things like american idol and vote in that. but they just aren't into politics.

i myself have already convinced a few to register and vote for kerry. this was done in the primary also. we got regular voters to vote for kerry, and we convinced some who never voted before to vote for kerry. some even disagree with kerry on a few issues. some disagree with him on abortion rights, but like his position on small business. some disagree with him on taxes but like his position on abortion.

2000 was the first presidential election i was old enough to vote in. i voted for gore of course but i wasn't as big a fan of him as i am of kerry. but i did learn a little bit during that campaign from people who worked in the campaign and just reading things. this allowed me to do a few things on my own to help get support for kerry.

[CWebster]

20. So would someone who would swing between

Nader and Kerry be considered a swing voter---nah, that is just someone to blame, right?

[goodhue]

24. indeed

those folks are apparently best belittled for their idiocy and then ignored as some sort of mass denial