The Ronald Reagan Effect? (new Harris poll has it Bush 51%, Kerry 41%)

[Timahoe]

Are people really this stupid? Ronnie wasn't my cup of tea, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to tell you that Junior is no Ronald Reagan. Junior makes Reagan look like Einstein. Reagan also knew how to cut losses when he fucked up, like when he pulled out of Lebanon.

Why would people support Bush because of Ronnie dying??????

I have lost all faith in my fellow citizens.



http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040618/nyf080_1.html

The Ronald Reagan Effect?

Friday June 18, 7:00 pm ET

President Bush's lead over Kerry widens and Cabinet members' ratings also rise

ROCHESTER, N.Y., June 18 /PRNewswire/ -- Is it the effect of the nation's memories of Ronald Reagan or the expanding economy? Whatever the cause, the latest Harris Poll has a lot of good news for President Bush and the Republicans. The good news includes:

* A very modest improvement in President Bush's job ratings (which is within the possible margin of sampling error) to 50% positive, 49% negative.

* Significantly improved job ratings for Vice President Dick Cheney (from 36% positive to 42% positive), Secretary of State Colin Powell (from 63% positive to 67% positive), and Attorney General John Ashcroft (from 40% positive to 43% positive).

* Improved ratings for the Republicans in Congress (from 35% to 39% positive), House Speaker Dennis Hastert (from 25% to 29% positive), and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (from 26% to 30% positive).

However, the most startling change in the new Harris Poll compared to a comparable survey in April, is that President Bush has widened his lead over Senator John Kerry, from three points among likely voters then to 10 points now.

-snip-

[emulatorloo]

1. Job Ratings are NOT GOOD. . .

He is still in trouble.

[coloradodem2005]

2. That's funny.

Other polls either have them in a dead heat or have Kerry ahead.

[olddem43]

3. Horrible, if true

but RR's death will be very old news by Nov.

[lancdem]

4. It's the Reagan effect, just like that Pew poll

It should be gone by next week.

[BootinUp]

5. Oh dear

I'll be glad when this frightening stage passes.

[bigwillq]

6. Let's see these numbers again in a week or two

Some of these numbers are still awful. I wouldn't worry too much.

[Trajan]

7. Blah Blah Blah ....

Bush's ass is cooked ...

These silly aberrations are laughable ....

[fearnobush]

8. This is a feel good bounce, it is not based in reality.

However, it could very well if we just suck up and take it. Right now, it's real important to step up the heat and call the media on their bushit.

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[liberalpragmatist]

9. Probably an outlier BUT...

Bush may well be a couple pts ahead at this point. Part of that is the Reagan effect, part of that is an apathetic turn towards Iraq - voters may be getting, at least for the time being, desensitized to it, and the good economic numbers are probably buoying him up.

To be honest, I think we'll go into a period where Bush will be slightly ahead for the next few weeks. It'll take the VP pick (Edwards! Edwards! lol, j/k) and the convention to produce a good bounce for us.

Bush will probably regain the lead after the Repub convention, so Kerry will have to fight doubly hard over the following weeks, then hit him hard during the debates (without being condescending).

Just talking about likely trends.

[lancdem]

13. We'll have to see

but I suspect it's pretty much a Reagan bounce. That story wiped away everything else, including bad news from Iraq, which is why Bush's ratings on Iraq and overall went up.

[DuckFan4ever]

10. I wouldn't put a lot of stock in it.

That was to be expected. There will probably be lots of ebbs and flows in the polls as certain events, like the conventions and selection of VP candidates occur. The question is can any of the momentum be maintained? George Bush is certainly no "teflon don". He's liable to have something negative happen that makes the whole country notice.

It's too early for polls. But not too early for :beer:

[FlashHarry]

11. Yes, people are that stupid.

Sadly.

[still_one]

12. bullshit

every other poll in the country rates them even...

[DuckFan4ever]

14. Kerry is ahead in electoral votes.

If the election were today, he would take home more electoral votes than Bush. Popular vote isn't as important, as we saw in 2000.:evilfrown:

[stepnw1f]

15. What's For Sale???

.... nevermind.

[Gloria]

16. I wonder if McCain's lovefest with Bush, coming after all the

crap games playing about Kerry's dance with him, will also have an effect???

I just feel that we've wasted so much time somehow...I can't put a finger on it...Bush has got his entire phalanx at work...and Kerry just seems to be a lone figure, without a real team... I think this VP delay was too long...and I wish he'd name a couple of potential Cabinet positions so there is some weight added to his campaign.....

[bitchkitty]

17. Pretty simple -

there are, unfortunately, many stupid people in the electorate. There are idiots on the Democratic side, but the Republicans have a far larger percentage of the stupid vote.

They think that Ronald Reagan was a Great Leader because they base their political opinion on soundbytes. I doubt some of them could even name Reagan's VP! ;)

I'm not worried about this bump. This will pass.

[camby]

18. WHO are these flip-floppers?

If you look at a chart of Bush's approval ratings over the past few months, they seem to range from 42 to 48% - I don't know who these 6% of the people are who keep changing their minds, but I'd like to meet one and ask them: WHAT ARE YOU THINKING???:shrug:

[robbedvoter]

19. Dead cat bounce + Diebold prep

The "it's close" meme needs to be implanted so any outcome can be accepted.