New polls have Bush gaining

[DaveSZ]

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

[Syrinx]

1. Why?

[shraby]

2. They are lying.

[tritsofme]

4. Fluctuations in a very long campaign

Kerry will get a bounce from his VP pick, and then again from the Convention, however I doubt it will be very large either time as a vast majority of voters have their minds made up.

But we will continue to see small fluctuations in the polling data until November 2 when we get the actual results.

[dusty64]

13. Who knows, I can not

think of ONE reason why he would suddenly rebound. Not one.

[Don_G]

3. I Prefer This One

[Syrinx]

5. I like that picture

Off to prison they go... :)

[DaveSZ]

7. Let's hope the trend on that graph continues

:)

[patriotvoice]

8. I relish the fact that his upswings are getting exponentially smaller.

EOM

[JCMach1]

6. This site is BS... It gives Wisconsin as leaning Dem.

- currently Bush leads.


and

Gives Florida as leaning Bush

-currently it is leaning Kerry


This site is utter rubbish.

[shockingelk]

11. the author's arbitrary method explained:

http://www.electionprojection.com/formula.html

So, here's the formula for the national polling adjustment

((JobApproval * 7) + (HeadtoHead * 5) + (RightTrack * 2)) / 14

The result is used in conjunction with the state polling adjustment to determine each state's projected result.

Here's an example using Iowa:

2000 national election result:  Bush 47.87%
Baseline Adjustment: 1.215% (added to Bush's 47.87% 2000 total to bring him to 49.085% in 2004)
2000 Iowa election result:  Bush 48.22%, Gore 48.54%, Nader 2.23%
After Nader vote allocation:  Bush 48.67%, Kerry 49.66%
Hypothetical job approval:  54%
Head-to-head:  48-42%
Right track / wrong direction:  45-52%
National Polling Adjustment:  +2.57%
State Poll (new poll):  47-45%
State Polling Adjustment:  +2.0%
State Polling weight: 0.5
Total Adjustment = Baseline Adjustment + (National Polling Adjustment + State Polling Adjustment/2)/1.5 = 3.60%
Projected 2004 national result:  Bush 51.47%, Dem 46.71%
Projected 2004 Iowa result:  Bush wins by 4.67%

(Emphasis added)

I can't follow what he's doing past understanding he made up the figure 54% as the most weighted factor in his formula.

[Journeyman]

9. Why don't you read the sites first, Dave? . . .

From the site administrator's bio (The Blogging Caesar):

As you would probably guess by now, my politics are conservative, especially socially.  Even though I would like President Bush to be more fiscally conservative, I believe he is as good as it gets for America's top job among this imperfect species we call our own.  This country needs him to be president until 2008, and he needs our prayers daily.

Less than a minute to verify the slant, that's all it took.


(Edited to be more civil.)

[Dookus]

10. No they don't

he takes a variety of data and runs it through a formula of his own creation to come up with these numbers.

They don't reflect a recent change in polls.

[NMDemDist2]

12. this is a better site for polls

http://www.electoral-vote.com/