Obama narrowly leads 41-38 in IN (poll taken mostly before Hillary's big PA win)

[jackson_dem]

This poll was taken from 4/20-4/23 so only one day reflects her big win. Still this is the fourth poll in a row that shows Obama either ahead or well within striking distance. He won't be able to spend $2 million a week on ads here and use the "I was behind so even though I lost badly I still 'won'" card here.

Obama also outperforms Clinton against McSame here but both are competitive in this very red state. Don't expect that to hold through the summer.

-snip-

The poll showed that Obama — helped in particular by strong backing from black voters — is leading Clinton 41 percent to 38 percent among likely Democratic primary voters. But given the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, this race is either candidate’s to win or lose.

-snip-

The poll found that Obama, the son of a white woman from Kansas and a black father from Kenya, is winning the support of black voters 86 percent to 4 percent.

-snip-

Obama’s other strengths: If you’re young, urban, better educated and better paid, chances are you’re voting for him.

-snip-

Obama is winning urban and suburban voters, 47 percent to 33 percent, while Clinton wins the rural areas by more than 2-to-1: 55 percent to 20 percent.

Clinton is doing well among white women, who back her 48 percent to 29 percent. Among all women, though, Obama is slightly edging her out, 41 percent to 40 percent.

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080424/NEWS0502/80424082

In other words this is a replay of other states except that Clinton's margins among her coalition right now are not enough to offset Obama's 86-4 margin among blacks and his high margins with the affluent and young (this poll didn't break it down by age but another poll from yesterday had Obama up 66-33 among 18-29 year olds).

[Cant trust em]

1. May 6 will be a slight net gain in delegates for Obama

when you consider a possible win for Clinton by a few then NC by a lot for Obama.

[jackson_dem]

3. I agree

Although I think folks are overestimating how big he will win NC. Obama's strength, even in a place as white as Indiana as this poll shows, is the black vote. The black vote in the NC Dem primary will be about 1/3 of the vote. In places like MS, AL, GA, and SC it was about 50%. Given his struggles with whites--even in Indiana a neighboring state where he narrowly leads overall he is losing whites--he is kind of limited as to how big he can win. I think 55-45 is a realistic scenario for both states (assuming Clinton gets about as much white support in NC, 63%-64%, as she did in OH and PA and that Obama gets 90% black support in NC) and since NC is larger and the delegate scheme within states usually favorable to him he would net delegates

The real delegates gains for Clinton will have to come in WV and KY. She needs blowouts there and if she blows him out in WV it will put Obama's electability problems front and center for all to see. There will be no masking of it and the MSM will have to explain why their darling got crushed in WV. Fortunately WV is a stand alone state so for a week the discussion will be how he got clobbered once again among white working class voters, along with Latinos his Achille's heels.

[Cant trust em]

11. We seem to forget that he blew her out in Virginia as well

by 300,000 votes in a primary. Not sure what the percentage of the electorate was African-American there, but the general population is 1/5. I'm sure that not all of those people voted.

[jackson_dem]

13. That is one of the few primaries in which he won the white vote

And even there he did so by single digits. He also did well in WI. WI and VA are the two big wins Obama supporters point too where he built a broad coalition cutting across racial (he also won Latinos in VA, one of the few places he did that), class, and age lines. However, he has tanked with whites and Latinos (his black support if anything is slightly higher now) since the MSM began vetting him a bit. What concerns some superdelegates is whether he can do it again after pastorgate, NAFTAgate, Rezko hitting the news, bittergate, and now Ayrers is starting to get some press.

[cliffordu]

2. Won't make any difference. 10 point losses across the board

and she still cannot win.

FAIL

[shadowknows69]

4. Big PA win Bwa ha ha ha ha ha

[NJSecularist]

5. Hillary will win Indiana.

It's best for Obama to try to improve his margins in North Carolina.

[truebrit71]

7. She will lose both. One by a little, one by alot...

..and then she'll be cooked..

[NJSecularist]

8. Indiana is more like Kentucky than it is like Virginia or Wisconsin.

The majority of the electorate is white.

[truebrit71]

9. Regardless of your assurances about the racist tendencies of that state.....

...the polls currently have the black man leading the white woman in that white state...

[jackson_dem]

15. Saying it is like KY doesn't mean it is racist

If Obama loses why is it always attributed to racism?

One think supers will look at is the crosstabs. Obama has 91-7 black support in the new ARG poll and 86-4 in this one. If he loses even narrowly but loses whites by double digits that won't assuage their fears. Even if he wins but loses whites the fears will remain, although Clinton's candidacy will not.

[jackson_dem]

14. Yes but Obama is from next door IL and that gives him a shot

[book_worm]

6. It will be close but I think Obama will take Indiana narrowly while winning NC

by a large margin.

[bunnies]

10. Oh, NOW I get it...

Polls showing Obama ahead in anything "wont hold"
vs.
polls showing Clinton ahead in anything "bank on 'em SD's"

Funny stuff from you.

[jackson_dem]

12. No, I have consistently said he will win NC

It is just common sense that a big win results in a bounce. It has happened each time one of them has had a big win. It is also common sense that Obama's avalanche of ads will net him some points.