Clinton over McCain 291-237

[Toucano]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/Apr27.html

McCain over Obama 269-243

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Apr27.html

I think it is very interesting that Obama brings Indiana and North Carolina to a tie. Indiana hasn't gone to a Dem in 18 of the last elections.

Either way, it looks closer than it should.

[bowens43]

1. not this shit again.

no electoral votes exist. this is hypothetical nonsense.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. I Missed It

Was there a constitutional amendment to abandon the Electoral College?

[Hippo_Tron]

2. April polls are unreliable

As it gets closer to November blue states get bluer, red states get redder, swing states get closer. I love Obama but he won't be competitive in Texas.

[NJSecularist]

3. Indiana and North Carolina won't go to Obama.

Which means Obama is looking at losing the electorate college 295 to 217. And this is at his high point, before he has been vetted.

[kid a]

4. idiotic clusterfuck - please wait until Hillary is out before we project GE

[NJSecularist]

5. Hillary is more electable even when there are two Dem candidates in the race.

When Obama drops out, her electoral college numbers will get even higher. There may even be an electoral blowout if Hillary is the nominee. She has nowhere to go but up.

[DJ13]

7. When Obama drops out.........

Get over it, she has lost.

[NJSecularist]

9. She has lost nothing yet.

Obama has not reached the 2024 delegate threshold.

[DJ13]

22. She HAS lost

She has not only lost all hope of surpassing Obama, she has lost a large part of her reputation by acting like a Republican in a Democratic contest.

[kid a]

30. that is THE botton line. thanks dj13 for some sense

[SOS]

43. Clinton electoral blowout?

I get McCain crushing Clinton 356-182

Create your own scenario here:

www.270towin.com

(to be fair, I can't figure an EV map where Obama wins either)

[gmudem]

48. Nonsense

This is a nice site but it's hardly perfect. Hillary has miniscule leads in Florida, Ohio, Washington, Oregon, Iowa, Missouri, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Hawaii. You're pretending like those states are all automatically going to be won by Hillary. That is a gigantic and faulty assumption to make. Meanwhile she's getting trounced in Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, South Carolina, Nevada, North Dakota, Nebraska, and Alaska. Those are all states that Obama is neck and neck with McCain in right now.

Oh and I thought she was supposed to be doing better than Obama in Michigan?

And while Obama is going on the offensive in all of these red states, Hillary would be busy spending money she doesn't have defending herself in Connecticut, Michigan, Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Jersey while hoping and praying that she can pull out Missouri, West Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania.

Obama changes the electoral map. Hillary makes Arkansas and Kentucky a little more competitive while having a horrible affect for Democrats on down-ticket races throughout the country.

[ruggerson]

6. This doesn't matter to a lot of Obama supporters here

if given the choice, they would rather lose with Obama at the head of the ticket than win with Clinton there.

[MercutioATC]

8. Actually, it doesn't matter because GE polls during primary season don't tell us a lot.

One of the main reasons I support Obama is that I believe he can beat McCain in the GE, while I don't that Clinton can.

[ruggerson]

13. I've seen posts from Obama supporters

saying they'd rather lose with him than win with her.

[azmouse]

18. The Dems will win with either candidate.

But Obama is the presumptive nominee. He can and will win in Nov.

[ruggerson]

28. "presumptive nominee" is a term reserved for those who have reached a numeric threshold

he may be the nominee in the future, but he has not garnered a majority of the delegates, so, factually, he is not the presumptive nominee.

Getting back on point, it's interesting that some of his supporters would rather lose with Barack than win with Hillary. If I felt that Hillary was going to lose the election, I would back Obama. I'm not one for going down in a blaze of partisan glory.

[azmouse]

32. I, for one, feel perfectly confident that Obama will win in Nov.

I detest Hillary. I don't make any bones about that but she would beat McBush too.

[SoCalDem]

37. The sad truth is that not all voters are motivated

and a high percentage of the new fired up voters that have flocked to the dem party are there because of HIM... if he gets bamboozled out of something he rightfullt should have gotten, can you really blame the newbies for getting pissed of and just sitting the whole thing out?

It;s happened before ('68) and when it does, we end up with decades of republican rule..

[MercutioATC]

23. ...and I've seen similar posts from Clinton supporters.

There are extreme positions on both sides. That doesn't mean they represent the majority...or even a statistically significant group.

[SOS]

44. 25% of Clinton voters in PA said they will vote McCain

another 18% said they will not vote.
That's 43% gone.

Obama can't win without PA and neither can Clinton.

[Sparkly]

10. I don't understand the data...

Hovering over a state, there are percentages from past races. Are those polls as they stood at this time in those years? Or are they margins within primaries? They aren't the end results.

Are these all polls asking about head-to-head matchups, Clinton v. McCain and Obama v. McCain?

Even so, the general campaign hasn't yet begun. Hopefully, we can get either one to beat McCain!

Have to say it seems silly that their main page uses brown for Obama and pink for Clinton, but maybe that's just me.

[Toucano]

14. As I understand it, the data is based on the most recent poll conducted

for each state in the head to head matchup.

Previous election data is given for reference.

For example, Clinton picks up 5 states Bush won in 2004 and Obama picks up 2.

[Sparkly]

19. But the data isn't accurate for the previous elections.

:shrug:

[Toucano]

26. Which ones specifically.

I have no relationship with the site, but it seems above board to me. If there's an error, I bet they'd appreciate pointing it out.

[azmouse]

11. Hillary can't win in Nov 'cause she's not the nominee.

Give it up.

[Toucano]

24. I've posted the same links when Obama comes out ahead.

And it probably will when a new poll comes out. It fluctuates a lot because it's early.

I just think it's interesting to view a broader picture than we often see.

I'm not advocating for either candidate.

[azmouse]

29. This is an interesting article breaking down the GE.

Analysis: Electoral map favors Democrats

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24334026/

[Toucano]

33. That is interesting. Thank you. n/t

[ProSense]

12. Kerry over Bush, Nov. 1 2004

Mathematical Model: Kerry 306 Bush 218

[DFW]

16. If you take away the fraud, that's probably the way it really went down.

[GarbagemanLB]

17. WELL....that just about ends this thread, lol.

[DFW]

15. It'll ALWAYS be closer than it should

That's because 45% of the Americans who vote will vote Republican even if their
ticket consists of Yogi Bear and Boo-Boo.

Even so, whether BHO or HRC, I still like our odds, the hell with the polls taken now.

The economy will NOT be roaring back by November.
We will NOT be out of Iraq by November.
The dollar will NOT regain parity with the Euro by November.
McCain will NOT get any younger by November.
The Clinton/Obama race for the nomination will NOT go on until November.
Bush will NOT be pronouncing "nuclear" correctly by November.

Even if Yogi McCain does NOT nominate Boo-Boo as his VP, I still like our odds.

[terrell9584]

20. The fact that D.C. still goes for Clinton by 90%

Proves the point that many people have been trying to make that black voters will stay home or switch if it is Hillary. If they were going to, a discreprancy would exist in the D.C. margin

[nomorenomore08]

27. Think "lesser of two evils." Even a lot of people who are pissed off at Hillary now

would probably vote for her if she somehow pulled out the nomination, because the alternative (4 more years of Republican misrule) is just too awful.

[TexasObserver]

21. Faulty premise. She loses big because she's alienated blacks.

We cannot win many states without heavy black turnouts, and we will lose that if Hillary is the nominee. Blacks are not getting out to vote for Hillary in November, and any model that fails to show that is patently wrong.

Hillary is the only chance republicans have of winning in November.

[leftofcool]

25. And you know this how?

According to the polls, 49% say they will vote for her in the GE if she is the nominee and that percentage will probably go up.

[GarbagemanLB]

31. If the narrative in the media is that she is handed the nomination despite losing the pledged

delegate race, you can be damned sure there will be a problem.

[leftofcool]

34. This is fear mongering

We live in a 90% Black community and we don't get that impression at all around here. Most of our neighbors are split between the candidates and the ones we have talked to said they didn't care as long as it wasn't McCain.

[TexasObserver]

36. "White superdelegates deny nomination to black man who won it."

If that statement is true, the Democratic party will suffer in November defeats up and down the ticket not seen since before the Great Depression.

[Toucano]

40. There are black super delgates who back Clinton.

I can think of three off the top of my head.

[TexasObserver]

50. Irrelevant. They aren't the people who would GIVE Hillary the nomination.

Even if you can remember four people like Sheila Jackson Lee.

Like I said, the headline will be about WHITE superdelegates stealing it.

[terrell9584]

38. no it is both delegates AND popular vote

Everyone acknowledges that she can't win the pledged delegate race. But I would suspect that there are a fair number of black Obama supporters who would accept the argument that a lot of those western caucus states aren't as germane as primary states, if just because many in the black community would have also been unable to turn out if it had been a caucus as opposed to a primary.

And speaking of which, I can name at least one Southern state where a caucus would have produced a different outcome than the primary, and if it had been a caucus, it would have been for Clinton. Just the discreprancy between the votes in states that had both would be a good argument.

If Clinton somehow wins the popular vote without FL and MI, and it is possible, though it depends on margins in PR, WV and KY, while making sure NC is at least close, and IN is close if a loss, and better if it is a large win. It's not over yet. Obama will have to spend money in states that he can't win if he is to keep her from winning the popular vote, and he will actually have to go to PR.

[ProSense]

46. "If Clinton somehow wins the popular vote without FL and MI, and it is possible..."

No, it's fantasy. Hillary is not going to make up a 611,520 vote deficit even if she wins KY, WV and PR by 30 pts.

It's over.

[SOS]

45. 49% would be a disaster

Gore won 94.0% of the Black Female vote.
Kerry won 90.0% of the Black Female vote (4.00% decline).

Gore won 87.6% of the Black Male vote.
Kerry won 86.9% of the Black Male vote (.76% decline).

[SoCalDem]

35. OH MY GOD. this is HUGH!..

Obama map
and maybe Montana with Testor's & the dem governor's help and Alaska , since they loathe Mccain and aren't too keen on the Murkowski/Stevens clans)... I added LA, because Landrieu's doing surprisingly well


Hillie's probable map

*without African American votes , she might lose Illinois..and i cannot see hawaiians all that happy with her for trashing their native son

[SOS]

47. On the Hillary map

you may be able to put MI into the McCain column.

Every single precinct in Detroit preferred "uncommitted" to Clinton.

[rocktivity]

39. Head-to-head comparsions aren't valid

as long as there are more than two heads.

GET THEE BEYOND THEE, POLLS!
UNCLEAN! UNCLEAN!!!!



x(
rocknation

[tritsofme]

41. Not a big fan of that website.

They just grab the most recent poll from a state and hold it up as the holy grail.

I prefer to judge either individual polling companies on their own or use RCP averages.

[SoCalDem]

49. make your own @

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/