Kentucky SurveyUSA: Hillary: 63, Obama: 27

[NJSecularist]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=26808902-2e9b-462b-86bf-a023fae70b92

No Change in Democratic Presidential Contest in Kentucky -- Clinton Still 2:1 Atop Obama: In a Democratic Primary in Kentucky today, 04/29/08, three weeks until votes are counted, Hillary Clinton decisively defeats Barack Obama, 63% to 27%. In three SurveyUSA tracking polls over the past 30 days, there is no movement in the contest. Obama gains a little bit of ground in Greater Louisville, but loses an equivalent amount in other portions of the state.

Can Hillary hit 70%?

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[jsamuel]

1. she may win the popular vote if this polling trend continues

[Pawel K]

7. she won't

unless you cheat and count FL and MI. Otherwise no way in hell is she winning the popular vote.

[indimuse]

214. Obama should lose FL..He held a press conference and

ran ads!! Completely AGAINST the rules...The ones they DID sign! look it up!

[TheWraith]

15. Nope. She could win Kentucky with 100% of the vote and still not even come close.

Not to mention you forget that Survey USA always runs Obama lower than he actually is.

[PBS Poll-435]

89. Say that to SUSA Ohio....

DEAD ON BALLS accurate! (It's an industry term...)


:rofl::rofl:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

103. DEAD ON BALLS loser

is also an industry term.

One I believe in.

[Texas Hill Country]

206. that is some pretty bad tankin right there

[PoliticalAmazon]

71. Not if the GOP "vets" her for claims that she is lesbian. n/t

[PBS Poll-435]

90. ?

Huh?

?

Who?

[rodeodance]

185. What's the Difference between the L. progressive & RW smears? Nothing-you both

sound the same.

[Name removed]

187. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Bake]

209. It's pretty disgusting to hear that kind of crap coming from so-called "progressives"

It does make one wonder about their commitment to equal rights for ALL people ...

Bake

[Deep13]

216. Awright! That's pretty progressive, right?

:rofl:

[tekisui]

98. Once again, it's about delegates.

Many Caucuses don't count in the Popular Vote Count, and you cannot count FL and MI.

Silly argument.

[Texas Hill Country]

2. DAMN! wow... that is not good for obama

[Windy]

9. Damn wow...its KY... and its a bastian of bigotry! I'm originally from Cincy OH

I have a lot of very prejudice relatives who live in KY. He was NEVER going to win KY.

[Secret_Society]

24. So I guess we shouldn't count it

HRC would never have won Mississippi...so what?

[CherokeeDem]

39. I live in Lexington KY ...but I have lots of prejudiced relatives

that live in OH...no state has a market on bigots. That said, Bill Clinton has always been popular in KY and therefore, Hillary is as well. This is a conservative state that at one time voted Democratic on the state level and did some swinging in the national elections. Obama has very strong support in the urban areas but the rural areas are a lot like OH and IN...they will go for Hillary. Thank goodness both of our US Reps have or will be endorsing Obama.

[Imagine My Surprise]

41. Cincinnati --ahem -- isn't noted for its great treatment of blacks n/t

[CherokeeDem]

51. That's the truth....

many blacks I know in Northern KY wouldn't go into Cincy...too dangerous. Talk about an ULTRA conservative town.

[Windy]

145. I agree...and I grew up there. I'm surprised that Obama did as well as he did in Cincinnati. n/t

[VolcanoJen]

173. Enough with the Cincinnnati-bashing

Name me a county in Ohio that didn't go bigger for Obama than Hamilton County in Ohio.

We worked our asses off here to show that Cincinnati was moving in a progressive direction. If you grew up here... it's time you took another look. I'm so proud of our Cincy efforts, and dedication, and we're making huge inroads into Northern Kentucky.

Uphill battle for sure, but anyone with those notions of Olde Cincinnati would be pleasantly surprised to return here. :-)

[Windy]

215. Actually, I would LOVE to return there. I live in the armpit of the US...DEtroit!

My family and my son live in Cincy.. I do miss it.

[Bake]

111. Of course! Any state that doesn't vote Obama MUST BE racist, by definition!

You crack me up!! I lived in Louisville for 17 years, and 9 years in N. Ky. Contrast that to Mississippi, where I now reside. While Mississippi has made considerable progress in race relations since the 1960s, it is light years behind Kentucky. D I know racists in KY? Sure. I know racists in MS, OH, IN and a few other states as well. That doesn't mean the whole state is racist, and you ought to be ashamed of yourself for suggesting that.

What you should have said is that Kentucky doesn't have as sizeable an AA vote as some other states, therefore Obama doesn't have the automatic base of support from which to start.

Racism has nothing to do with it.

Bake

[Tesha]

48. That's right! Of the ten Democrats in Kentucky, seven are voting against the black guy.

Kentucky will *NEVER* vote for the Democrat in the
General ELection so it's pretty hard to get excited
about who they vote for in the Primary nor should
they be given much weight.

Tesha

[Hoof Hearted]

Yes, we should only count red states when OBAMA wins them!

BO-polar disorder:

1) when suddenly things which just last week were unspeakably awful are now the BEST THING EVER, cause Obama said so. Like Ronald Reagan, and healthcare plans that leave people uninsured.

2) when things/accomplishments that are BRILLIANT, wonderful, relevant or meaningful for Obama are, at the same time, irrelevant, dumb or meaningless for Clinton.

[Tesha]

142. There are "red" states and there are *RED* states.

Kentucky is probably one of those *RED* states and I
don't think we need, as a party, to worry a whole lot
about who they think our nominee should be.

Tesha

[ronnykmarshall]

147. Um, yeah!

That's The Rules, remember?

Obama win - Good people vote

Clinton win - Evil Hope Stoppers Vote!

[Hoof Hearted]

155. Don't forget the bumpkins and those pesky old ladies.

them too.

[CRH]

101. I respectfully disagree, your statement is not backed by past elections, ...

As a Southern state, Kentucky in the past has actually been a swing state of sorts. In the general elections since 1960, Kentucky has voted for all the eventual presidents, Kennedy (D) in 1960 being the only exception. In the general elections, Kentucky's electoral votes have been cast for; Johnson (D) 1964, Carter (D) 1976, Clinton (D) twice in 1992 and 1996. -- NOTE -- Every democrat elected since Kennedy has had the support of Kentucky.

The facts do not accept your reasoning.

[xmas74]

150. thank you.

I only went back to 1976 to support my claim while you went back further.

What I said was the KY tends to go with the rest of the country. That doesn't make it "racist", as some posters here claim.

[xmas74]

149. Not necessarily.

In 2006 57% of registered voters were Dems, compared to 36% Repubs.

Also, KY voted for Carter in 1976 and Clinton in 1992 and 1996.

Sounds to me like they tend to vote with the trend-just like most of the US.

[terrell9584]

172. Clinton won it, Carter won it, almost won it in 80

Humphrey would have won it in 68 if Wallace hadn't have taken away a lot of his votes, and it is one of the few states that voted for Adlai Stevenson in either of his runs

since the 1940s. it is a state that has had only one Republican governor. The Democrats control statewide offices and one of the houses of the legislature (I don't know why they don't control both, redistricting could be in order). The county in Kentucky that went the heaviest for the gay marriage ban (not a value statement, but a statistical fact) also voted for Kerry by a 40 point margin.

Kentucky is a winnable state, but you have to have the common man touch to do it.

[Tesha]

184. Do you think part of the reason why Carter and Bill Clinton won it was...

...their claim to being Southerners? I'm certain this
won't work for Barack and I'm pretty sure it won't work
for Hillary, no matter how she puts a faux-twang into
her speech.

(Serious question here -- I'm not trying to beat anybody
up just for the beating.)

Tesha

[terrell9584]

197. Clinton probably could do it

If just cause she does know how to relate to the culture, given that her entire professional life has been associated with Arkansas. Her accent is a problem, but she at least knows the culture. Obama is a up a creek on this one, but there is a way to relate. He hasn't found it yet (because I have yet to be inspired by the man and I suspect a lot of it is cultural)

There is a way for him to relate but it will require him to do things that are honestly going to anger the more affete base he has. he'll have to explicitly go after class warfare and as idiotic as it may sound on its face, one black man who is very popular in southern white culture is Charley Pride. Making a connection between himself and Pride might not be a bad idea. It would be pandering, it would be selling yourself to the common denominator, but, this is politics, which has a habit of chewing up anyone who is too princpaled, and because such a gimmick might help stop the bleeding in WV, which as the most unionized state in the country, should be voting for a Democrat in the fall.

[Pawel K]

3. But when Obama was winning by these numbers those states didn't matter

Congratulations to Hillary, not that this changes anything.

But I love how you guys don't see your own hypocrisy in this.

[rocktivity]

205. DING DING DING! Pawel K, you're our grand prize winner!

Congratulations to Hillary, not that this changes anything...

Congratulation to to Pawel K--you're not allowing your support to blind you to reality!

:party:
rocknation

[wowimthere]

4. isn't kentucky the place where they have the most ignorant right wingers?

It also has the highest teen pregnancy rate while they bash liberals for not having family values. I guess you will take what you can get.

[wowimthere]

8. she won't win the popular vote... Kentucky was always a big win like Arkansas.

[invictus]

38. n/t

[iwearshoesinky]

49. Actually, Indiana has always been more of a bastion of the Klan

It was the epicenter of the 1920's resurgence.

[CherokeeDem]

45. Why don't you come here and say that...

Apparently right-wingers have not cornered the market on ignorance.

[provis99]

97. no way. Oklahoma is the king of right wing fundamentalist idiocy

Kentucky doesn't even come close.

[iwearshoesinky]

109. They stole shitty land that the Federal Government forced the Native Americans to live on.....

[Bake]

113. No, I think MS takes the prize for highest teen pregnancy rate.

You could've looked it up. But feel free to continue spouting ignorance.

Bake

[rodeodance]

186. OP is talking about Democrats in that poll

[aquart]

188. Always be sure to insult a state whose votes you need.

Go for it, duckies.

[jasmine621]

212. This is what I mean about Obama supporters. If he is hurt any more

it will be by his own rabid supporters.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

5. if she can't win in a Limbaugh state, she can't win anywhere

oh thats right...

[book_worm]

6. Enjoy it while you can

Obama will be the nominee.

[galaxy21]

12. To be honest, it's amazing he's even getting that much

Kentucky is the one place that is full of people who will not vote for a black man under any circumstances. There's only so much you can do with voters like that.

ps I know not everyone in ketucky is a racist, as shown by the fact he's getting almost 1/3 of the vote.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

10. I don't want to hear any crap about Obama's red-state victories.

If you're bragging about Hillary's possible victory in an ultra-conservative state like KY that we will never win, you lose all rights to mock Obama for the same.

[NJSecularist]

16. Bill won Kentucky in 1992 and 1996.

So it's not out of the realm of possibility that Hillary wins it if she is the nominee.

[TheWraith]

18. Yes it is. Completely.

Hillary is not Bill.

[NJSecularist]

25. Winning Kentucky is more likely than winning North Carolina, Indiana and Virginia.

The red states that the Obamites have listed as claims of Obama's electability.

[onenote]

37. kerry lost KY 60/40

You're dreaming if you think HRC can beat McCain in KY.

[PBS Poll-435]

87. I think she can.

I am not going to get sappy about it, but there is a real comfort about secret balloting.

[TheWraith]

42. You're lying to yourself and everybody else.

NC and VA are, in fact, competitive with good turnout. KY is not. Period. Ask any credible political strategist and they'll tell you the same.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

44. No, Virginia is certainly more doable than Kentucky.

[NJSecularist]

56. False. The last time Virginia went blue as in 1964 in LBJ's blowout.

The last time Kentucky went blue was 1996.

Kentucky is more likely to go blue if Hillary is the nominee than Virginia is with Obama as the nominee.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

65. It's also the state Obama won among white men, correct?

[NJSecularist]

69. Winning a primary is a lot diferent than winning in the general election.

Remember, Republicans vote in the Virginia general election too. And the state is still predominately Republican. It has not went to a Democrat since LBJ in 1964.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

79. You just contradicted your OP.

Republicans vote in the KY general election, too, and KY's only gone blue 30% of the time in the last ten cycles -- not good odds.

[Pawel K]

85. lol. did a Hillary supporter really just say that?

So I guess you think Hillary is a liar when she claims otherwise?

[Phillycat]

78. Hang on...

Actually VA will go blue within the next 10 years. It has to do with the DC suburban demographic in Northern VA. But I don't think it will happen this election cycle for either of these candidates.

[NJSecularist]

91. NOVA is now a democratic stronghold and it continues to grow.

But that is still not enough. Virginia may go blue within the next few elections, but certainly not this election.

[VolcanoJen]

174. Microtrends

Your boy Mark Penn is the king of them.

Virginia has been trending blue this decade. Webb is the best example, and Warner has Senate coattails that make any watcher believe VA is an honest swing state in 2008.

Kentucky, though? I live a stone's throw from there. You're on crack if you think KY will go blue in November.

[MidwestTransplant]

58. Kentucky is less likely than Virginia for sure...North Carolina too. Probably equal to IN

unless Bayh is VP.

[jackson_dem]

70. Not with Clinton. Bill Clinton won it twice. VA hasn't went Dem since 64'

NC hasn't voted Dem since 1976 (southerner Carter).

[MidwestTransplant]

81. Kentucky is simply not voting for Hillary. She has a SKY HIGH negative rating and nearly 50% of

Americans report that they simply won't vote for her under any circumstances. Kentucky is NOT going for her.

[Phillycat]

82. She's within 4 points of McCain. She's polling very well there.

Just because you can't believe it doesn't mean it isn't true.

[jackson_dem]

86. Yeah, and she is also viewed as competent. The fact is KY polling has her competitve with McSame

Thankfully the netroots don't represent the real world!

[aquart]

191. After 8 years of Bush, there are no red states.

Stop thinking in the past. The primary turnouts show that the losing Democrat still culled more than the total of all votes for the Republican candidatesin state after state. They hate their ticket. McCain wasn't even a contender until they saw with horror the rest of their choices. Nobody worth spit is running Republican this year because they KNOW it's going to be a Democratic blowout. $4 a gallon for gas? Who are you kidding?

[PaDem]

211. Virginia is MUCH more winnable than Kentucky in November.........

hard to believe this is even being debated here.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

20. Winning the lottery isn't out of the realm of possibility, either.

[Phillycat]

She's behind McCain by less than 4 points in current polls in KY.

As the economy goes further into the crapper and gas prices continue to rise, that gap will close. She could easily win KY. Obama, however, never could.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

31. It's seven months before the election.

A lot can happen between now and then.

[Phillycat]

35. Exactly right, and if the economist geeks are right, all in Hillary's favor.

They just said this morning the bottom has NOT been reached on the foreclosure problem. Gas prices are going to continue to rise by all experts' estimations. The war is certainly not going to improve. All the measures by which Kentuckians are going to vote look to worsen for McCain and improve for Hillary.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

110. People vote against their interests all the time.

I imagine if it was Hillary vs. McCain, it would be framed as fake sniper fire versus the war hero -- some fake outrage that overshadows the real issues.

Obviously, Obama could be framed in a number of ways against McCain, but a crappy economy won't guarantee a Hillary win if she did get the nomination.

[aquart]

192. $4 a gallon for gas. Nobody is voting Republican.

And the war is not the issue you think it is.

[Hoof Hearted]

62. Awesome little fact that I'm sure many would prefer to forget.

[jackson_dem]

68. The latest KY GE poll has McSame at 48, Clinton at 46

Obama gets trounced. He doesn't even reach the 30's against McSame in Kentucky...i believe this was from SUSA.

[Name removed]

19. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

26. Wow, that was rude.

I don't remember you with this attitude before.

But Bill is not Hillary and this isn't the '90s, no matter how much Hillary thinks it's true.

[Phillycat]

32. Maybe I phrased it rudely.

For that I apologize. Let me say it more politely - you need to do some research before you write off Kentucky. She's polling just fine there.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

36. Apology accepted.

But I stand by my statement that she can't win there.

Obama was polling within the MOE against McCain in North Dakota recently, but I'm not holding out any hope for that state.

[Phillycat]

47. Not an apt analogy.

North Dakota hasn't gone blue in a long time, as far as I can make out. I am happy to be corrected, but I can't find a record of a Democratic result in the past 10 presidential election cycles.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

60. Aside from Bill's wins, KY went Dem in 1976 only.

http://www.270towin.com/states/Kentucky

Maybe ND was a weak analogy, but it's the only red state off the top of my head that Obama polled close to McCain in.

A lot of the traditionally red states, if they went blue at all, only did so a couple of times in the last 10 elections.

[TheWraith]

46. And how does she poll against McCain in Kentucky, eh?

Hint: the people who won't vote for Obama won't vote for Clinton either. Kentucky is a loss.

And yet, the Clinton supporters will keep spinning that somehow THIS one is winnable, but all the actual swing states Obama won should be ignored.

[Phillycat]

54. She's within 4, as I said above.

Hardly unwinnable, especially with the economic direction of the country.

[TheWraith]

57. Uh huh. How about any credible polls?

Kerry lost KY by 20 points, and to be blunt, he had a better chance of it than she does.

[Phillycat]

74. Uh, you asked for poll results, I gave them to you, now you're complaining

they're not credible. :shrug: Them's the results, man!

[TheDoorbellRang]

11. I'd guess the results here will be similar to the results in Tennessee

Also West Virginia. Obama doesn't do well in Appalachia. Luckily for Obama, there's only 79 pledged delegates available in both those states combined.

[iwearshoesinky]

95. It's kind of sad...

Sen. Obama stands on the right side of mountain top removal but sadly the regions affected by it are so economically disadvantaged that the people there support it despite the harm it does to long term growth. I see it all the time when we go to lobby Frankfort to end the practice.

[haymakeragain]

13. She needs 70%. Darn.

In KY and all the rest.

[SeaLyons]

14. 70% - Yes She Will

Go Hillary!!

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[galaxy21]

22. You're happy Hillary is the benefitor of out and out racism?

[NJSecularist]

30. Are you happy that Obama was the benefactor of out and out racism in GA and Alabama?

He won those states on the back of a large racist black vote.

Or wait, let me guess. Whites can be racist but blacks can't? :crazy:

[galaxy21]

34. It's not a red state thing, Kentucky is just an incredibly racist place

Alabama and GA are not racist, to that extent.

check out some of the interviews daily kos did with kentuckians, the people there are very open about their unwillingness to vote for a black man. Even the educated ones.


She probably might still win if it was a more open mided place. But these huge margins indicate Hillary is only the lesser of two evils to many of them. Rather than winning on her own merits it will be because she's white.

[NJSecularist]

40. It's different when the racism is happening to Obama.

When racist blacks were voting for Obama in Georgia and Mississippi, it was just fine. :crazy:

[galaxy21]

52. identity poltics is not racism

Catholics went for Kennedy, Mormons went for romney, women went for Hillary.

There's a difference between voting FOR someone because you indentify with them, and voting AGAINST someone because they're different to you(sexism, racism)

Simply put, a black person voting for Obama is voting FOR him, not AGAINST Hillary. However, many of the people in Kentucky will be voting AGAINST him, rather than FOR Hillary.

[jackson_dem]

76. Women aren't voting 80-90% for Clinton like all the other groups you mentioned

I admire your mind reading abilities. Obama gets 90% of the black vote and none of that is due to racism. :crazy:

[July]

146. Any white Democrat can count on high percentages from black voters.

Check out the last couple of presidential elections. Blacks deliver votes to Democrats, even when the party doesn't reward them for doing so. As another poster noted, voting FOR someone with whom one identifies does not make one a racist.

[jackson_dem]

168. Sure but we don't have mind reading machines to divine why people vote a particular way

Is racism not a factor in Louis Farrakhan's support of Obama? According to the mind readers here it isn't.

[aquart]

189. Blacks voting 90% for the black man is NOT racism?

On what planet, sweetie pie?

[jackson_dem]

75. When Obama gets 90% of the black vote race has nothing to do with it

When Clinton gets 51% of the white vote against Obama it is because of racism. When Richardson lost the white vote and black vote it was because he had limited appeal. Get it?

[galaxy21]

93. First of all, Clinton started off with 60-70% of the black vote

and she blew it.

Second of all, I'm not saying every place where white voters go more to Hillary is due to racism (although she seems to be doing everything she can to ensure that). However, in a place like Kentucky, which is known for being one of , if not the, most racist state in America, then yes, her overwhleming support (her largest so far) is likely due, in part, to racism.

Black voters are not being anti white. They've voted overwhelming for the (white) democrat candidates for decades. How do you explain that, if they're so racist?

However, now they have someone who they feel they relate to and who will address issues concerning them. And that is part of it. The clinton's basic disregard for AA's havn't helped ( in fact it was Bill who triggered this overwhelming support amongst blacks). So, Hillary has no one to blaime but herself.





Get it?

[jackson_dem]

99. That is a myth. As soon as Obama won Iowa he shot up to the 70's with blacks

Go back and check the polling right after Iowa. http://www.pollster.com/08-US-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

Yeah, yeah, 90% and none of it has to do with race. Clinton gets 60% of whites and it is racism. To believe this theory you must believe a very large share of whites are racist and that a statistically insignificant number of blacks are racist.

Blacks are doing what Mormons did with Romney, Catholics with JFK and Smith. It isn't racism, although certainly part of it is. I would estimate 15% of voters are racist. The rest is due to identity voting among blacks.

Why does Obama lose Latinos 2:1? Why did Obama loses Asians in California 3:1? Racism? Or maybe he is a weak candidate who can't win outside his ethnic group? He is similar to Jesse Jackson: winning 90% of blacks and losing everyone else. The difference is Obama has gotten to about 40% of whites nationally while Jackson was stuck at 25%.

In Louisiana Obama got 30% white support. He did about as bad in Massachusetts (40%). They are the only two states who have elected a minority governor. Why couldn't the greatest politician ever match what mere mortals Jindal and Patrick did?
Even in Illinois, a state with a certain black senator, he got only 59% of the white vote. It isn't race. It is Obama. Blaming racism for him losing is as idiotic as blaming Richardson losing on racism.

[galaxy21]

105. Jessie Jackson? Is that you Bill?

For what it's worth out of the whitest states in America, Obama has won most of them.


As for Iowa: Barack was in the lead with blacks after that, and he was expected to win SC. However, he ended up winning HUGE. Bigger than most predicted. Which was likely, due to Bill. I think after Iowa Clinton could have improved and shared the black vote, but Bill ensured she could never recover from that.


Also, the difference in whose voters are racist and who aren't, is likely how each candidate has appealled to voters. Obama has appealled to blacks on his own merits, and not villified whites, Clinton has been throwing the kitched sink, and yes, playing the race card at every oppertunity. Michelle Obama never labelled Hillary's win in NH as down to racism, however Bill did exactly that in SC. And then Hillary belittled his victories in louisianna and Mississip as due to blacks (I don't recall Obama claiming Hillary won Ohio and Penn because of all the white people)


So to answer your questions: her earlier wins in new York and california were down to her own merits. But when she started playing the race card in March, it becomes more difficult to say. But it's her own fault that people are now wondering if it was because of racism, or on her own mertis.

[NJSecularist]

112. Obama has won predominately white caucuses with low turnout.

He won Wyoming with a 9,000 turnout. Nebraska with a 20,000 turnout.

Whoop de doo.

Hopefully you don't expect the same in the general election.

[galaxy21]

116. The Missouri primary?

[jackson_dem]

118. He got 39% of the white vote in MO, even with rethugs bloc voting for him (75-21)

Fortunately for Obama he won 84% of the black vote in MO.

[galaxy21]

122. He still won enough to win which is the main thing,

I don't think he'll get the majority of white votes in the GE, democratics don't anyway (Clinton never did) but he needs to keep his votes high enough that it doesn't disquality him (combine that with overwhelming black supports, and Hispanics who tend to lean towards the democrats)and he's got a good shot.

[jackson_dem]

126. I agree but keep in mind Kerry won 41% of whites. If he won 43% he would be president today

Clinton lost them but he won the white working class twice and he lost whites overall only 43-46 in 1996. The bottom line is, as Kerry showed, Obama would need at least 43% of the white vote to win. Does anyone think he can get more white support than Kerry did? Kerry wasn't losing the white vote in 4 out of 5 primaries.

I am glad you mentioned Latinos. He would need big Latino numbers. However, he would have trouble getting that against McSame, who has popularity with latinos. I would expect him to win Latinos but narrowly like Kerry did (53-44), not big like Clinton and Gore did.

[galaxy21]

141. At least Obama can still win over whites

Hillary has blown it with black voters. Permanently. Mccain realises this and is now reaching out to blacks in case she does get the nomination.

Now a democrat may not need overwhelming white support, but they do need overwhelming black support (to carry counties in swing states like Ohio).

The main difference is that Obama hasn't alienated whites, Hillary has alienated blacks, who she needs if she gets the nomination. Although in all her race baiting she mayhave forgotten this.

[NJSecularist]

120. He won around 38% of the white vote in Missouri

He won it on the back of larger than average black turnout in St. Louis.

[jackson_dem]

129. Yup, winning 1.9%-5% turnout caucuses prove nothing

They are comprised of affluent voters, a key Obama constituency, and caucuses reward organizations. These reasons are why Ron Paul did a million times better in caucuses than in primaries.

[jackson_dem]

117. It wasn't due to Bill

The polls were misleading in SC. Go back and look at them. http://www.pollster.com/08-SC-Dem-Pres-Primary.php There was a "reverse" Bradley Effect and we have seen this consistently. Far more blacks actually vote for Obama than say they will in polls. Edwards' surge also cut into Clinton's margin since his surge came from whites because he got only 2% of the black vote.

Obama has won caucuses. There are no caucuses in the GE. In primaries he has never gotten more than 60% of the white vote (Vermont). His next best performances are (throwing out home states), 55% in Utah and New Mexico, 54% in Wisconsin, and 52% in Virginia. He has lost whites everywhere else. For the 11 states we have exit poll data on Latinos Obama has won them only once with 54% in Virginia. Notice something about timing? He peaked in February. Voters knew he was black then and they know it know. His decline is not due to racism because non-black racists were not voting for him from day 1. His decline is coming from folks who are good and simply have increasing concerns about him as they get to know him.

Obama hasn't played the race card? :rofl: Did Bill Clinton say "white America will wake up (and start voting 80% for Hillary)?"

Obama can't win outside his ethnic group. In order to believe racism is due to this you have to believe Latinos are so racist they will vote 2:1 for Clinton. Latinos are a good gauge of who is the better candidate because they are not influenced by white or black identity.

You ignored Louisiana and Massachusetts. Jindal and Patrick won the governorship of each state in landslides among whites. Jindal actually lost the minority vote (he is a rethug). Why couldn't Obama do better than 30% and 40% respectively in these two states? Racism? Only two states have minority governors that they elected and there have been a grand total of only five minority governors since reconstruction (VA, LA, MA, FL, and NY. The last was via succession). Obama lost whites in four of these five states and only won them 52-48 in Virginia. Is Obama a worse candidate than Wilder, Jindal, Martinez, and Patrick? I thought he was the greatest politician ever? :shrugs:

[galaxy21]

138. So, Bill did nothing to turn off SC blacks? Seriously?

'Obama hasn't played the race card? Did Bill Clinton say "white America will wake up (and start voting 80% for Hillary)?"


Again, that's identity poltics. Bill would never say 'whites will wake up....' he would have said 'women will wake up...' and while many may have questioned it, it wouldn't have been an overtly contraversial statements..


'Obama has won caucuses. There are no caucuses in the GE. In primaries he has never gotten more than 60% of the white vote (Vermont). His next best performances are (throwing out home states), 55% in Utah and New Mexico, 54% in Wisconsin, and 52% in Virginia. He has lost whites everywhere else. For the 11 states we have exit poll data on Latinos Obama has won them only once with 54% in Virginia. Notice something about timing? He peaked in February. Voters knew he was black then and they know it know. His decline is not due to racism because non-black racists were not voting for him from day 1. His decline is coming from folks who are good and simply have increasing concerns about him as they get to know him.'


Cauuses? Why they're only activists, the people that care the most!

As for him peaking, he won overwhelming with whites in Wyoming. Supposedly, after everone 'saw' through him. Like I said, racism likely had nothing to do with it in the earlier states, but it probably has factored in the last few contests. Ans whose fault is that? Hillary's.



'You ignored Louisiana and Massachusetts. Jindal and Patrick won the governorship of each state in landslides among whites. Jindal actually lost the minority vote (he is a rethug). Why couldn't Obama do better than 30% and 40% respectively in these two states? Racism? Only two states have minority governors that they elected and there have been a grand total of only five minority governors since reconstruction (VA, LA, MA, FL, and NY. The last was via succession). Obama lost whites in four of these five states and only won them 52-48 in Virginia. Is Obama a worse candidate than Wilder, Jindal, Martinez, and Patrick? I thought he was the greatest politician ever? :shrugs:'

You really think Massachusettes will go red, ever?

No his loss in Maddachusettes was nothing to do will race. People just liked Hillary better. Maybe they still do. But come Novemever, they'll fall in line. Because they have no reason to dislike Obama (unlike Obama fans who would be seriously pissed if Hillary got the nomination in a way seen to be unfair)

[aquart]

190. I sure do.

[onenote]

43. let me see if I understand your concept of racism

African American voters, who prefer Obama to Clinton, but in earlier years did not support AFrican American candidates such as Al SHarpton, are racist.

But white Kentuckians who wouldn't vote for an African American no matter who it is, are not.

Okay.

[jackson_dem]

123. "Wouldn't vote for a minority, no matter who it is"

Just like those racists in Louisiana and Massachusetts who voted overwhelmingly for minority governors but overwhelmingly against Obaam, the alleged greatest politician ever! How about senators? He lost whites in Florida and New Jersey too. They have minority senators. Is the new argument that Obama is a weaker politician than Patrick, Jindal, Martinez, and Menendez?

We simply don't know why they are voting against Obama. What we do know is in LA, MA, FL, and NJ the people have proven they would vote for a minority for high office (add Ohio to the mix too since they had a black Secretary of State recently) but voted against Obama. It is obvious in these states race isn't the problem...

[galaxy21]

140. There's a big diference between kentucky and massachusettes

call me when Kentucky elect a Muslim senator.


So, while race is obviously not a factor in Mass, it proably is Kentucky. Unless you're seriously arguing there's no difference in race relations between Kentucy and Massachusettes.

[Leopolds Ghost]

143. YES, those racists in Louisiana and Massachusetts--two states my family is intimately familiar with.

Any questions about just how profound racism is in those states, where one
black governor won in the face of the white racist Democrats in Boston
(the ones who rioted over school integration) and one Indian-born governor
won on a "law and order" platform after praising the actions of his own
Parish government in shooting at blacks attempting to leave the city and
memorializing the Wright-like figure of Jefferson Sheriff Harry Lee, an
Asian, who said that in his jurisdiction, more than two blacks together
was "a riot waiting to happen"? Where a highway is named after a man who
was EXCOMMUNICATED by the Catholic Church and shunned by the KKK, he was
so brutal towards black people? (a man who was forced to crawl 10 blocks
on his knees at age 90 to ask forgiveness of the first black bishop that
parish had ever seen?)

[PVnRT]

63. Racist blacks?

My word, you've gone over the deep end.

[yodermon]

88. It's Identity Politics vs. "I'll never vote for a _______".

Plenty of Black people in GA and AL have voted for *white* people before.

do try to keep up.

[jackson_dem]

131. Identity politics is better than racism. I am sure that is great consolation for John Edwards!

[aquart]

193. What were their other choices? Purple?

[July]

144. Why was it a "racist" black vote?

Blacks have reliably voted for the Democrat in the presidential elections, in larger percentages than any other group, over many election cycles. Each time they were voting for a white candidate.

You don't know any more than I do how blacks who voted for Obama decided to vote for him. I don't see it as racist to vote for someone of one's own race (nor sexist to vote for someone of one's own sex), and no-one levels charges of bias against white males when they vote for white males in contests where there are non-whites and females also running. And, as I mention, blacks have readily voted for people NOT of their own race. Just voting for the black candidate when one is black doesn't prove racism.

[NJSecularist]

156. So then how does white voters voting for a white candidate prove racism.

Which is what most of the Obamites are doing in this thread when talking about Kentucky.

[galaxy21]

158. You should read a few of the recent interviews from daily kos with kentucky voters

They were very honest about it.

[NJSecularist]

159. You can cherry pick quotes all you want.

[galaxy21]

161. It's not cherry picking when its backed up by facts

70% is one of the highest numbers Hillary has had so far. Even higher than her home state or Arkansas.

[oviedodem]

17. I was driving through Kentucky once, stopped at a gas station and literally

got my change tossed to me. I have never received so many dirty looks in all my life the 2 days I was there.

[CakeGrrl]

21. And yet, Obama STILL got a KY Superdelegate endorsement today. Go figure!

[iwearshoesinky]

59. Both of our Democratic Congressmen have endorsed him.

Yarmuth at least is a very progressive chap, in his tenure as editor in chief of Louisville's alternative actually supported the decriminalization of marijuana in one of his editorials. Despite the use of this and his many years of weekly editorials that definitely trended on the left of things, he unseated a 6 term Republican in 2006. He's voted against fifsa and whatnot, Kentucky is just weird and mildly schizophrenic.

[suston96]

23. Yeah, but...KY is a red state. They don't count.....nt

[jackson_dem]

77. Not with a Clinton heading the ticket

[PBS Poll-435]

:woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo:

[invictus]

28. Obama is far ahead in Oregon. But I guess in Hillary's spinzone OR doesn't count.. n/t

[Khaotic]

29. Expected

Kentucky is to Hillary as Hawaii was to Obama.

No doubt she'll get numbers that are close to what she received out of Arkansas.

Nothing new here.

Woot ... woot all you want.

Hillary has as much of a chance of carrying KY's EVs in the GE as Obama has of carrying MS's EVs in the GE.

It won't happen.

So put down your pom poms and have a tall glass of Lynchberg Lemonade.

[jackson_dem]

80. Hillary isn't from Kentucky. Hawaii is Obama's home state

No, Hillary has a better shot at winning Kentucky than Obama does in Colorado, a state that is often cited as the rare state Obama flips.

[Jersey Devil]

33. That would net Hillary 13 delegates -sorry, not enough

There simply are not enough delegates left for Hillary to catch Obama in pledged delegates. The only way for her to win would be if virtually all the supers come out for her despite Obama having the lead in pledged delegates.

[Hoof Hearted]

50. Woooo Hooooo! THREE CHEERS FOR THE ~LADY~

What a GREAT DAY!

[PVnRT]

53. Has Obama campaigned there yet?

His numbers go up in every state he does.

[emilyg]

72. His ads are running.

[rocktivity]

55. She needs 70%--and in ALL the remaining contests, not just KY and WV

The scenario being peddled about her making a "comeback" in based on "big wins" in those who states is malarkey!

:headbang:
rocknation

[Vinca]

61. Not to be nitpicky, but when I think of racism . . .

Kentucky is a state I wouldn't expect Obama to win.

[Bigleaf]

66. Yep, cue the banjo music. Deliverance anyone?

[iwearshoesinky]

94. Not to burst your bubble....

The banjo is an instrument of west african origin and bluegrass music as a whole comes from Appalachia. Although the culture of this region is mostly a preservation of Scotch-Irish tradition but it has also absorbed many Native American and African influences because of its remoteness and independent streak. Appalachia was never a region where slavery was commercially viable and Unionist sentiment was so great that Eastern Tennessee had to be kept under military occupation by the Confederates all through the Civil War. Banjos are fun instruments too and had great importance in performance music before electrical innovation allowed acoustic guitars to be heard live.

[Bigleaf]

121. No problem. Thanks for the history lesson.

[iwearshoesinky]

153. My major in it helps me accumulate random tidbits!

The history of racism and the south in general is more complex and usually rooted in division of poor whites and blacks by the powers to be who do not wish for the two to see their common economic plight.

[ShortnFiery]

64. No worries! As per past performance, in the least, Obama will PROFOUNDLY close the gap!

Go Obama! :patriot:

[jackson_dem]

170. Will losing by 20 be a "win" according to Axlerod?

[JackORoses]

67. something tells me you would be right at home in the backwoods of Kentucky

No uppity Blacks to put up with.
:sarcasm:

[backscatter712]

73. That's KKKentucky for you...

[jackson_dem]

83. Obama leads 71-15 among blacks in that poll, Clinton leads 67-23 among whites

Race has nothing to do with 71-15. Obama is just the bestest politician ever. As to whites:



Get in line or feel guilty!

It is ironic to see Obamites play the white guilt card since Obama has started to lose since the vetting process began. That is basically what Ferraro said Obama was benefiting from when she said "the country has got caught up in the whole idea".

[mckeown1128]

84. only 19% of likely voters consider themselves liberal...

yep you guys/gals should be proud of that.

[iwearshoesinky]

92. Obama supporter here in Kentucky chiming in to dispel falsehoods on all sides

Allow me to say off the bat that Kentucky is a very peculiar state. Although the majority of the electorate is registered as Democrats, there's been a lot more play in the elections with both parties trending towards the conservative. Despite Bill Clinton's wins here in 92' and 96', I would say that Sen. Clinton cannot depend on this state in the GE without strong efforts.

That being said, Kentucky is definitely transitioning. We're witnessing the death throes of reactionary politics here as the urban centers grow in population and education improves. Because of this, I would not discount Sen. Obama closing the gap by a tremendous amount. He has not actively campaigned here in person, but some groundwork is being laid by a strong student presence on my campus and in Louisville and Lexington. In fact, there was a stupendous turnout for the opening, DUer alfredo has some great pictures of that event here: http://web.mac.com/alfredo_tomato/Site/ObamaOpening.html

I think that this primary is still competitive once the campaign picks up and Kentuckians get to know Sen. Obama. I believe that much of the support for Sen. Clinton is simple name recognition as opposed to racism. A few Duers have made great points about how racism and misogyny go hand in hand and that no state truly owns a monopoly on bigotry.

Lastly, shame on my fellow Obama supporters who are crying racism. Sure my home state can be a little backwards at times, but what does this attitude earn us? What about Obama's sweeping of the Southern primaries? Would you say that those states are somehow less racist even though they share a similar history to Kentucky. We never even officially joined the Confederacy (although some would joke we did after the war). Hell, not to call out other states but what about Wyoming or Idaho where I doubt some people have even met people of other races? Ignorance and poverty are the mothers of bigotry and much of our country is suffering from them at the moment. Don't get discouraged by very early poll numbers. We can win this thing if we do not dismiss this news as being rooted in racism.

[spooky3]

102. thanks for an enlightening post

[AX10]

96. k/r

This is big for her!
It will help her in the popular vote!

[yellowcanine]

100. Cool, Now when Obama closes the gap to 20 % it is a win for him.

[iwearshoesinky]

106. Well...

There's already a very small number of delegates so by decreasing a very substantial lead he renders any delegate gain by Sen. Clinton effectively null. At least in this case.

[stevietheman]

104. I'm a Kentuckian -- our Democratic Party here is packed with racists.

And I'm not kidding. But just as well, if Obama campaigns here, his numbers will go up assuredly.

[iwearshoesinky]

107. The way things have been changing

I mean, I hate to see the state GOP grow but they've definitely begun absorbing some of the less desirable elements in our state party as of late.

[stevietheman]

137. this is true, to a large degree

Arguably, the Democratic Party in Kentucky used to be too big a tent. There were historical reasons for statewide hatred of the Republican Party, but that finally began to dissipate in the past generation.

[Zachstar]

108. I do not see why you are so happy with those results.

A close win is good but you KNOW what they will say if she wins by that much.

Anyway once he campaigns there it will be slightly better.

[jpalmer]

114. We are screwed people

If she is drawing 2:1 in a state like Kentucky, Obama is going to have problems in similar states. I'm getting worried that they're beating each other up too much. We have to hope something changes soon cause our party can not handle much more of this dirty fight. Have any of you heard about the "Denver Plan" people are talking about?

[uponit7771]

115. When is the KY primary? Thx

[Edgewater_Joe]

119. And Hillary Will Win KY In November - NOT

Reminder to HillBots: SHE HAS LOST.

Try to cope with it, will you all??

[NJSecularist]

124. Bill won Kentucky in 1992 and 1996.

Hillary has lost nothing yet. Has Obama reached 2024 delegates yet?

[Edgewater_Joe]

194. Yes She HAS Lost, HillBot

The only way she gets the nomination is if she STEALS it -- and if she does, McSameAsBush wins the White House.

So either just endorse McSameAsBush now or stop spamming these boards with your drivel

P.S.: No way in HELL Hillary wins KY in November - if she actually were the nominee. No. Way. In. HELL.

[Independent-Voter]

125. Again, that low-educated base coming out for Veruca like clockwork

[NJSecularist]

132. More unity from the hope and change crowd!

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

I thought you campaign was about unity? Or does anybody who does not vote for Obama deserves to be thrown under the bus?

[jackson_dem]

133. Class elitism from Obamites, just like their candidate

keep it up, it "helps" your hero. :thumbsup:

[stevietheman]

139. Well, at least we're not racists like many in your camp. n/t

n/t

[iwearshoesinky]

152. Obama has much of the grassroots support

Anyone who cares about mountain top removal and follows the issue can tell you that Obama has thoroughly denounced the practice where as Clinton has had committee hearings about mtr and has said, "You know, maybe there is a way to recover those mountaintops once they have been stripped of the coal."

[jackson_dem]

166. Yes, but 27% won't cut it

[iwearshoesinky]

180. It'll close though

name recognition is important this early on and the youth vote is underrepresented in polling.

[Egnever]

127. all 51 delegates wow ! if she gets 100% she is still a loser .

[Radical Activist]

128. So Obama should get 40% of the vote or more

based on the trends in every other state.

[my3boyz]

130. SHOCKING!!!!!! Hillary leading in one of the most racist states in the U.S.! WOW!!!!!! nt

[jackson_dem]

134. it is racism if Obama loses! He is so GREATEST POLYTISHIAN EVEREST! only racists vote against HIM!

[stevietheman]

136. That is actually true to some degree, but esp. on your part. n/t

n/t

[my3boyz]

135. Sorry I can't read your reply to my message you are on IGNORE! LOL nt

[ronnykmarshall]

148. Oh that was go witty!!

Oh stop! My sides are KILLING me!!!

[GetTheRightVote]

151. Obama is our nominee already, if you were a gambler you would definitely

put your money on Obama, think about it, mine is on him since he is our nominee already since the odds are with him, lol.

[slinkerwink]

154. Kentucky's not that important. Everyone knows it won't be a toss-up state.

[jackson_dem]

164. It would be with a Clinton on top of the ticket. They voted for Bill twice

Hill is in a statistical tie with McSame right now in Kentucky. Clinton can flip several states, including Florida and Ohio...

[Auntie Bush]

157. Wow! Wouldn't 70% be great? That would send a real message to the SDs.

I wonder if that would be a record? I'm sure some Obama supporters would know and post.

[book_worm]

160. KY will be tough for Barack but if he can get 35% I will be happy

[jackson_dem]

165. You will. Will the superdelegates, especially since he will have a similarly weak performance in WV?

That is the real question. How will the supers react? We know what the Obama spin will be. "35% two weeks in a row was great. We are only the front runner and only outspend our rival 3:1 everywhere." Will the supers buy it?

[AllentownJake]

162. By the time

KY votes anything less than 66% would be a defeat for her in term of what she needs to win the delegate race. Last time I checked at the convention that is what is going to be voting.

[Aloha Spirit]

163. Interesting if flawed article on the voting patterns by georgraphy... Barone

In case you haven't read it...
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/4/2/reviewing-the-primary-results-academics-versus-jacksonians.html

I don't agree with the analysis, but still found it intriguing.
I only mention this because this thread seems to keep getting kicked.
Enjoy!

Here's the last paragraph
"Clinton's support from Jacksonians gives her, as I have argued, a chance to overtake Obama in the popular vote and an opportunity to argue to the superdelegates that she should be the Democratic nominee. They're a significant bloc of voters in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, West Virginia, and Kentucky (although I should note that this week's polls in Pennsylvania show her running behind my projections). The Democratic Party has seldom won a presidential election without their support: Jimmy Carter carried Jacksonian voters in 1976, and so did Bill Clinton in 1992 and, by a lesser margin, in 1996. If Al Gore had carried just West Virginia or Kentucky or Tennessee or Georgia or Arkansas—all states carried by Carter in 1976 and Clinton in 1992, all heavy with Jacksonians—he would have been elected president in 2000, and we wouldn't have spent 37 days arguing how to count the vote in Florida."

[Doctor_J]

179. Barone is a right-wing hack

Believe nothing, trust nothing

[kevinbgoode]

167. She has to hit at least 70 percent - and it ain't gonna happen

without the Limbaugh vote.

[jackson_dem]

171. Hannity is considering endorsing Obama to stop Clinton since he fears her electability

I hope he does so this fairy tale about rethugs stuffing the ballot box for Clinton is put to a rest. That is as bogus as "Democrats for Romney" in Michigan. Very few people actually participate in such things.

[kevinbgoode]

175. "Very few people" . .as in, you have numbers?

Look. . .Ms. Clinton, who thought this nomination was a shoo-in from the get-go, is in second place and lost 11 primaries in a row. Now why is that? Because she is the best candidate this party can produce?

[jackson_dem]

183. For all the hype about "Democrats for Romney" he lost Democrats in Michigan

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21228184/

McSame got 41, Romney 33, and Huckabee 14. He lost Democrats to McSame by 8. He lost indies to McSame by 6. The indie number is one that should be used to check crossover appeal. If "Democrats for Romney in Michigan" were a real force he would have gotten a lot more indie support than Democratic support. In case you are wondering how he still won Michigan it was because he won rethugs by 14 points.

[Condem]

176. Jackson- Do you really believe this?

[jackson_dem]

182. I wouldn't be surprised

[goodgd_yall]

169. That's no surprise

Kentucky seems to be very similar to the rural Ohio demographic. She won big in those areas of Ohio, particularly rural south Ohio.

[ccharles000]

177. Can Hillary hit 70%?

Yes she can!

[rocktivity]

207. Can Hillary hit 70% in ALL TEN of the remaining contests? If she can't

she won't get close enough to Obama to seal the deal with the superdelegates--especially since Obama has closed the superdelegate gap to with 20.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Doctor_J]

178. I guess the race-baiting and mud-slinging are working in SOME places

others, not so much.

[barack the house]

181. Kentucky was always out of play for Obama.

[Roland99]

195. Must not have polled anyone in Louisville then

I've seen all of 2 or 3 Hillary signs in cars all year.

See Obama '08 all over.

[Secret_Society]

204. Actually 30% of that poll was from Louisville....Clinton 49% Obama 41% in that region

I don't know shit about Kentucky...so if there is a big difference between Louisville as a city vs "region" let me know

[Roland99]

210. Louisville is much more liberal than the rest of the state. The city went for Kerry while...

the state went for Bush in 2004.

We've had a Dem mayor for, oh, my entire life? :-)

[barack the house]

196. KT was never in his column.We'll console ourselves with the winning margin overall.

[Tennessee Gal]

198. KT? Did you mean KY?

[Independent-Voter]

199. Kentucky and Arkansas - there's two real braintrusts for you!

[Tennessee Gal]

200. And where are you from?

[Independent-Voter]

201. Central NC, 43 and semi-retired. Thanks for asking!

[hayu_lol]

203. A question for Kentuckians...

Over the past 50/60 years, there has been pretty heavy migration from Kentucky into southern Indiana. Do any of you think that the situation in Kentucky will affect southern Indiana voters?

Sure, lots of Kentuckians moved into Ohio as well and for the same reason: jobs/services/schools.

And yeah, the banjo is a fun instrument, but put one in the hands of a master musician and look out. Used to be a really little guy named Eddie Peabody who could do things on banjo that were unbelieveable.

[Tennessee Gal]

217. I believe there is a plant in Kentucky building Corvettes and a

plant in Kentucky building Toyotas.

Why would Kentuckians want to go anywhere?

[Tennessee Gal]

208. What is the basis for your superior attitude?

I lived in NC for 7 years, btw.

[Roland99]

213. Yeah, we be so stoopid. Toyota, Ford, Yum! Brands, Humana, GM, GE...

Why wood them kumponies chose KY to bild plants and hedkwaters?

[rocktivity]

202. Hillary NEEDS to hit 68% of the vote in ALL TEN of the remaining contests

or she won't have a chance with the superdelegates. Kentucky looks like her best opportunity, but only one such victory WON'T "seal the deal":

41-point or more margin of victory = blowout

36 - 40 points = victory

30 - 35 points = good, but not good enough

11 – 29 points = a wash

5 - 10 points = useless

1 - 4 points = concession speech


:headbang:
rocknation