Interesting opinion on the "convention bounce theory"

[jmparks02]

I forget who it was, but this morning on the Sunday talk shows, I think Chris Matthews was questioning why Kerry did not get more of a bounce from the convention?

Well, one of his analysts points out that unlike many prior elections, many Americans have already made up their mind on who they are going to vote for. Therefore, there are not that many people that are going to move one way or the other based on what they heard at the convention.

I suppose that this theory will really be put to test after Bush speaks at the Republican convention.

Also, on Bill Maher's show the other night, Michael Moore made a great observation when he said that this election would not be close. He said that right now, polls show the two candidates running very close, however polling data is taken from people who voted in the previous election. Moore believes that the Democratic Party has put together a tremendous grassroots effort that will bring a lot of people who did not vote in 2000 to the polls in 2004.

Thoughts?

[Randi_Listener]

1. I hope Moore is right.

The phrase "likely voters" is what throws me. What is a likely voter?

[salonghorn70]

5. Likely Voter

Most polls which try to poll likely voters have a standard by which "likely" voter is defined. Most frequently it is based upon having voter in past elections. Consequently, a voter who votes in every Presidential election is a likely voter. A voter who is registered but has not voted on a consistant basis or at all is not a likely voter.

[POed_Ex_Repub]

2. I think I agree somewhat

I also think the Primary is a good indication of this... Look how much more turnout we had this primary season compared to 2000.

The polls are interesting, but I don't think they tell the whole story. My guess is that turnout is going to be the key in this election.

[POed_Ex_Repub]

3. Oh.. and I almost forgot

Welcome to DU jmparks02! :hi:

[lancdem]

4. Also, Kerry was in the best position any challenger

has been in going into his convention in years.

[Bucky]

6. correct. The people who would comprise the bounce have already "bounced"

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