Zogby polling done during convention very encouraging; bodes well for JK

[flpoljunkie]

Mr. Kerry is also performing well in Blue states, among Young voters and among Single voters.  In the Blue states, Mr. Kerry is winning 50% to 38%, while in the Red States, Mr. Bush is only winning 48% to 46%.  Among Single voters, Mr. Kerry is winning huge by a total of 69% to 19%.  And among young voters – 18-29 year olds – a group Al Gore only won by 2 points in 2000, Kerry is winning in a landslide, 53% to 33%.


There are three factors contributing to Senator Kerry’s lead in the electorate; first is President Bush’s eroding base, second is his failure in outreach to swing groups and base Democratic constituencies, and third is Mr. Kerry’s strengthening of his base.  Mr. Kerry also has the potential to open a bigger lead in two areas.  First, among the undecided voters, if Mr. Kerry can sell himself as a viable alternative to Mr. Bush, he stands to make large gains amongst the small, but significant chuck of undecideds. Second is in the turnout arena, Mr. Kerry’s large leads amongst Hispanics – who will potentially make up a great portion of the electorate than they did in 2000 – and young voters – who numerous non-partisan groups like Rock the Vote and MTV are targeting – will stand to boost his total share of the vote with every point their turnout increases.  Mr. Kerry is showing a 2-to-1 lead (50% to 25%) amongst voters who didn’t vote in 2000, while winning three-quarters (75%) of Ralph Nader’s voters and stealing twice as many (8% to 4%) of Mr. Bush voters in 2000 than Bush is stealing of Gore voters in 2000.

The Senator’s lead among Catholics is similar to the Clinton margins of the 1990s.


Mr. Bush has also shown weakness in what is considered to be his best region, the South.  While Kerry’s choice of Senator John Edwards gives him his biggest boost, his economic populism and courting of veterans are also key in his eroding of Mr. Bush’s support.  Not only has Kerry now come to a tie with Bush in favorability in the South (55% for both), the Kerry-Edwards ticket has pulled ahead, 48% to 46% in the South.  PresidentBush’s job performance is down to only 44% in the South, and only 43% of Southerners think the country is headed in the right direction.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849

[prodigal_green]

1. the single voter is BIG this year

I've heard the largest block of non-voters are single women aged 18 to 34 (shame on you ladies!!). If they are inspired to vote, then it is in the bag.

[wish_I_could_vote]

2. Very welcome news. And a needed boost. Thanks

[cally]

3. GOTV

This election hinges on getting out the vote. Whoever gets voters to the the polls will win. This poll is great news. Bush is losing his base and Kerry is expanding his. :bounce: