Mr. Kerry is also performing well in Blue states, among Young voters and among Single voters.
In the Blue states, Mr. Kerry is winning 50% to 38%, while in the Red States, Mr. Bush is only winning 48% to 46%. Among
Single voters, Mr. Kerry is winning huge by a total of
69% to 19%. And among
young voters – 18-29 year olds – a group Al Gore only won by 2 points in 2000, Kerry is winning in a landslide,
53% to 33%. There are
three factors contributing to Senator Kerry’s lead in the electorate; first is
President Bush’s eroding base, second is his failure in outreach to swing groups and base Democratic constituencies, and third is Mr. Kerry’s strengthening of his base. Mr. Kerry also has the potential to open a bigger lead in two areas. First, among the undecided voters, if Mr. Kerry can sell himself as a viable alternative to Mr. Bush, he stands to make large gains amongst the small, but significant chuck of undecideds. Second is in the turnout arena,
Mr. Kerry’s large leads amongst Hispanics – who will potentially make up a great portion of the electorate than they did in 2000 – and young voters – who numerous non-partisan groups like Rock the Vote and MTV are targeting – will stand to boost his total share of the vote with every point their turnout increases. Mr. Kerry is showing a
2-to-1 lead (50% to 25%) amongst voters who didn’t vote in 2000, while winning three-quarters
(75%) of Ralph Nader’s voters and
stealing twice as many (8% to 4%) of Mr. Bush voters in 2000 than Bush is stealing of Gore voters in 2000.
The Senator’s
lead among Catholics is similar to the Clinton margins of the 1990s.
Mr. Bush has also shown
weakness in what is considered to be his
best region, the South. While Kerry’s choice of Senator John Edwards gives him his biggest boost, his economic populism and courting of veterans are also key in his eroding of Mr. Bush’s support. Not only has Kerry now come to a
tie with Bush in favorability in the South (55% for both), the Kerry-Edwards ticket has
pulled ahead, 48% to 46% in the South. PresidentBush’s job performance is down to only 44% in the South, and only
43% of Southerners think the country is headed in the
right direction.http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849