Does Bush have any chance in NJ?

[fujiyama]

I'm curious because polls have shown this state too close for comfort.

It's strange because Gore won the state by 16 points. How realistic is it that Bush could win it? I know that Lautenburg won after the Toricelli mess in '02 but wasn't he a senator already years ago?

If Kerry were to lose this state (which I doubt would happen), then there's absolutely no chance of winning the election.

[NJGeek]

1. Proximity to NY, WTC, now Newark threat ...

... gives Bush a fear quotient in NJ. I don't think he has an honest chance here, but you can't forget that the Democratic governor here (McGreevy) is extremely unpopular.

[soupkitchen]

2. NJ is considered close partly because Nader is polling at 6%

As a NJite I really find it hard to believe that Bush could win here, but I have been worried also by the polls.

[elperromagico]

5. How's Nader doing with ballot access there? n/t

[vi5]

3. Several things at play here.....

1)Lots of NJites were very affected by 9/11 and the scars still linger.
2)Lots of areas are HEAVILY republican. Some of the more heavily populated areas have lots of $$$$ and lean repug and others are rural and due to guns and stuff lean repug.

On the other hand the state is by and large liberal enough so that someone with even the slightest of pro-life or socially conservative hint to them lose even against unpopular opponents. Nobody really adored McGreevey prior to the election, but Schundler was heavily pro life and pro gun. Nobody really loved Lautenberg or the fact that he stepped in under shady circumstances, but his opponent was pro-life and pro-gun.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I Don't Buy The Proximity To New York Argument....

Kerry is beating Bush by over 20% in NY and NY was the city that was hit...


McGreevey's unpopularity will hurt the Dems a bit but not nearly enough to give the state to Bush...

Bank on it.....

[elperromagico]

8. Remember the negative effect Gray Davis was supposed to have

on the Democratic nominee in California? I have yet to see evidence of it. I'm not sure that voters in a state necessarily blame the entire party just because one member is very unpopular.

[TreasonousBastard]

6. Anyting can happen, but...

I doubt Shrub will come close to winning here.

We have our supply of solidly Republican counties and wingnuts, but generally NJ won't go for assholes or wingnuts on either side. The more they see of Kerry as the campaign goes on, I think the more they will go for him.

Just my impression, but Democrats seem to be far more organized and energized here, and the voter turnout might be much higher in Democratic areas.

And, don't forget that Christie Whitman is the ranking Republican, and chairs the Bush re-election attempt. I'm sure she's really got her heart in it. (hehehe)

[JI7]

7. NJ may be one state we can win based on "wedge issues" like abortion

rights.

[elperromagico]

9. I've only seen one poll where Kerry didn't have a comfortable lead.

Are there others? If not, then I'd say we would be wise to wait until another poll comes out before we start thinking that NJ is in danger of going to Bush.