Kerry Campaign Isn't Banking on a 'Bounce'

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Kerry Campaign Isn't Banking on a 'Bounce'
Observers on both sides predict a tight contest that will not be decided until late in the game.
By Doyle McManus
Times Staff Writer

July 31, 2004

BOSTON — Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry can expect at least a modest bounce in popularity following his star-studded convention, where the most serious hitch was a balky balloon drop. But now he faces an important question: Can he keep his momentum going until November?<snip>

"We never expected great movement in the horse race" to result from the convention, Kerry strategist Tad Devine said. "We just expected to build here, not to end the race."

Neutral analysts said that Kerry largely succeeded at the tasks he set for himself at the convention: introducing himself to millions of voters who had not tuned into the presidential race before and conveying a message that a Kerry administration would be strong on defense in the struggle against terrorism.

"I think Kerry comes out having unified his Democratic base," said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of a nonpartisan political newsletter. "Maybe he didn't close the deal, but he moved the ball down the field. I still expect a close race," he said. "Kerry should get a two- to four-point bounce and then, unless the Republicans mess up, they'll get a two- to four-point bounce from their convention" in early September.<snip>