Why Do Folks Worship At The Altar Of The Gallup Poll?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

I don't get it....


They were all over the place in 2000.....


They picked Ford to beat Carter......


I could go on and on....


Is Gallup more credible just because they have been polling for sixty, seventy years?


Cadillac has been building cars longer than Acura, Lexus, and Infiniti combined and they can't beat any of their cars in independent tests.....

[bluestateguy]

1. Because they are the oldest

Not that their quality is best, but because they are the oldest. Also, many political scientists prefer Gallup because their polls allow them to do more logitudinal studies with public opinion data. The accuracy of the polls is kind of taken for granted, when perhaps it shouldn't be.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Yes... They Are Good At Attitudinal Studies

but their election record is at best mixed...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Exhibit A

Look at lil Gall(0)p all by itself......


Gall(o)p reminds me of the out step Marine in the marching band who thinks everybody else marching has missed a step....


http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[wuushew]

4. Zogby is God

n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Zogby Nailed 96 and 00

he's had his share of mistakes but nothing like Gallup's wild swings during election 00....

[Lexingtonian]

6. I don't either

They have a systematic error of 5-8% in favor of Republicans in national polling this year- they've gotten worse relative to reality each of the past three years.

It probably pays better by keeping them the outfit that the WSJ and the like prefer to hire (because, in turn, their readers prefer biased information of the kind). So they don't correct their modelling- in fact, they probably tweak it the other way. As Bush becomes increasingly unelectable but the media outlets supporting him have to pretend that he's still- always- within reach, they can run up prices a bit.

So it's about making money, not about providing a public service.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. They Had Bush Leading Gore 52% -39% On 11-27-2000

They know exactly what they are doing...

If some folks think their candidate is a loser they won't bother to vote or contribute time or money....