Hot New Fox Poll

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Kerry has a nice little lead....


www.pollingreport.com


I followed the Fox poll in 00... It seemed true...

[West Coast Democrat]

1. Yet another poll that disagrees with the CNN/Gallup BS

I'm not surprised

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. The Fox Poll Plays It Straight

perhaps their 2000 polls are archived so you can se....

[LittleApple81]

2. That is why they are terrorizing us NOW!!!!

[quaoar]

4. I don't get the Fox poll

From that link.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Click On My Link Then Click On White House 2004

NT

[West Coast Democrat]

8. Here it is

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. TY

NT

[Mojambo]

5. Man, Bush is getting slaughtered on health care and education

As expected.
But his numbers on taxes suck too. Maybe people are finally getting how screwed up his tax policy is.

Encouraging to say the least.

[displacedtexan]

14. Yeah. And JK is damned close on Terrorism numbers!

I'm quoting the ABC/WaPo poll numbers.

[Worst Username Ever]

6. I don't buy it.

I think they are trying to prove they are fair and balanced.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. I Think They Are Putting The Death Blow To CNN

People have learned that CNN is a conservative news network masquerading as a liberal one....

[realcountrymusic]

31. Interesting Fox Observation

Tortured myself last night by watching a few minutes of "Cavuto on Business" in the late-night re-run. It was guest hosted by some Brit I don't know. But the feature story was all the corporate leaders who support Kerry. They actually interviewed the Chief Operating Officer OF NEWS CORP (Fox's parent co,), who laid out a strong case for why Kerry is good for business! He demurred when asked about Murdoch's support for the rethugs, saying "that's what makes us a fair and balanced company," or something like that. They then interviewed a smart and attractive panel of chief executives, all of whom gave articulate and *conservative* reasons for supporting Kerry -- education, health care, global citizenship, defecit/debt concerns, etc., basically saying America had to act like a grown-up again. They did then interview an administration official (John Snow) for a rebuttal, but the overwhelming thrust of the piece seemed to me to be pro-Kerry for a conservative but intelligent business viewer. I was amazed.

Or maybe they are just starting to suck up to our next President!

RCM

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. Dems Are Better For The Economy...

The equities markets perform much better under Democratic administrations....

[West Coast Democrat]

10. Also, I wanted to point out how high Kerry's favorability is...

even from the crappy Gallup Poll. Kerry has 57% Favorability and Edwards 59%

Meanwhile, * is at 52%

http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=12625

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. He's Not A t 52% In Anyone Else's Polls

All the other polls have Bush in the mid to high 40's...


I like our chances in November.... I'd say we are a 4-3 favorite....

A pickem with a slight edge....

[West Coast Democrat]

This is Favorability, Not Job Approval

[Burma Jones]

12. Who's a Hot New Fox

I do so try to keep up with the newest hot models....

[NoBorders]

15. poll goes thru 8/4

so I'm encouraged, b/c this includes all the terra warning crap. Hopefully they are not as effective as I had feared.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

We Got A Decent Shot This November...

but I would put nothing past the junta in Washington...

[NoBorders]

25. oh, I know: the blatant terrorist arrest extravaganzaa is proof

that they will do about anything. Not that arresting terroristis bad, just the timing.

[West Coast Democrat]

16. Did you notice *'s approval rating dropped to 44%...

in the new Fox Poll?

http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm

[Supply Side Jesus]

30. funny how we dont hear about it

but when he got a slight bounce after raygun's death the media was more than happy to report about it.

[Zynx]

17. It was pretty good in 2000, but had an odd number at one point this year.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. It Showed A Close Race In 00

unlike the Gallup Poll which had violent swings both ways....

[Zynx]

20. Gallup is a POS poll.

It shows swings that are far too large.

Here is the Gallup chart from 2000:



Here is the Zogby chart from 2000:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Wow- It Picked Up The Gore Strong Close

Alot of pollsters missed it...


Also, the "stoopid" Gallup poll showed a swing of almost thirty points in the final months of Election 2000....

[West Coast Democrat]

23. Notice also how EVERYONE predicted far more support for....

Nader than he actually received in the voting booth.

http://pollingreport.com/wh2genT.htm

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. I Remember Going To Drudge's Site On Election Day 2000

before the polls were closed and he "had" exit data showing how Nader's support had collapsed and how this was bad for Bush...


I predict Nader will poll less than 1% on election day....

[flpoljunkie]

18. Bush's job approval also down to 44%!

http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Wonder If It Will Go To The Thirties....

NT

[adamrsilva]

22. Never thought I'd see the day where the FOX News poll

was more accurate than CNN's.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. BAWAWAWA

Over at lucianne.com they are in denial over the poll....


If I laughed any harder I'd pee in my pants....


One poster said it's a poll of registered voters not likely voters. WRONG....


One poster said Clinton's approval was at the same point as Chimpys at this time in 96... WRONG... He was in the mid to high fifties....


Another poster said Newscorp, the parent of FOX is backing Kerry... Maybe Rupert Murdoch as a prudent businessman is hedging his bets....
He contributed to Gore in 00....

[realcountrymusic]

32. Maybe not the company, but the COO is

See my post above. Last night on "Cavuto on Business," the Chief Operating Officer -- the #1 guy in the day to day running of the company -- came out strongly for Kerry, with a series of pro-business, conservative arguments. Murdoch may be a Kool-Aid drinker, but the guy who has to make the company run apparently is not.

RCM

[Tarheelhombre]

28. The more negative the Repubs get.....

The lower their polls numbers get. Keep it up!!!

[demosincebirth]

29. Now we like Fox

[West Coast Democrat]

33. It's just interesting that this poll also disagrees w/ Gallup....

as does every other major poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. I Like Fox Better Than CNN

At least FOX doesn't hide it's conservative bias....

[LabMonkey]

36. No challenger in history has won with a meager bounce.

No challenger has won the white house in history without a *signifigant* bounce. Kerry just didnt get that. Its just not there.

No "Senator" has won in over 40 years, and even then it was very close.
They have tried. Gov. Dukakis from Mass. was up on Bush 17 points only to lose in a landslide.

No Democrat has won in recent history unless they were a Governor from the south.

We have a challenger, from Massachusetts, a Senator, with no convention bounce.

What me worry?

Getting cocky (read stupid) from a poll is how you lose.
You live by the polls, you die by the polls.

Its going to be uphill the whole way.

There is another convention and then debates. Debates seldom change the dynamic. Gore was supposed to clean the floor with Bush. I dont see anything that tells me Kerry is any better then Gore debating. Debates seldom change the dynamics.

The only hope I see is for Bush to have a bounceless convention.

Thats what history shows. History isnt always right is it? But you have to appreciate the gravity of it or you will suffer the same fate. Kerry is it now. I didnt want him, because I knew what history has shown. Water under the bridge now.

The only thing we got going is Bush approval is lower then re-elected Presidents usually have. But he is above those who were removed. It is untested territory. The pollsters want desperatly to know where the bottom is on that.

These are the things to look at in the next 8 weeks.

Bush bump at RNC, if it is minimal like Kerrys. we have a chance.

Bush Gallup approval numbers. If below 45%, we have a chance.

You dont need to know much more then that to know who is going to win now.

I predicted that Kerry would be a longshot if he got the nomination.
That was before all this vietnam stuff, I didnt know he admitted atrocities at the time. Now unfortunatly that is coming home to roost. True or not makes no difference. Joe and Jane Sixpack have been deciding our elections a long time.

Bad news from Iraq, nasty economic reports, scandals. Those are the wildcards now. But counting on that is not exactly making me feel any better.

[DaveinMD]

37. of course

the small bounce is a myth. In fact, when you combine the Edwards bounce with the convention bounce he got the normal movement.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. Hmmm

There are now six or seven post convention polls with the exception of Gallup that shows Kerry with a modest lead.


When was the last time an incumbent president was in this position and went on to win?


Bush's approval ratings are in the mid to high 40's .

When was the last time an incumbent president with these approval ratings went on to win?


Bush won the Electoral College Vote but lost the popular vote.


When was the last time a president in that situation went on to win?


I'll await your answers but I'm not holding my breath....


P.S. I refuse to worship at the altar of Gallup.... They got the 76 election wrong.... They got the 92 election wrong.... They got the 2000 election wrong after being all over the place....

[LabMonkey]

45. Think what you want...........

>There are now six or seven post convention polls with the exception >of Gallup that shows Kerry with a modest lead.

And Bush was ahead at one time too, likely will be again. It is a fools paradise to think that a poll today months ahead of time means anything! "Approval numbers" are about all thats useful.
IF Bush approval was at 39% this converaation would not be taking place. Kerry would win.
Dukakis was up 17. Polls are going to be all over the place. It does me no comfort a slight lead when I look at history.

>When was the last time an incumbent president was in this position >and went on to win?

When was the last time a President won the electoral and not the popular? we are in uncharted waters there.

The polling trendlines show elections are extremely dynamic at times. This far before an election is NO indication of final outcome.
That is fact.

http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=1210

Bush was in the lead earlier. They have not even had the convention yet. Its been back and forth for both of them. A meager bounce does not bode well at all. Kerry got a meager bounce. Probably one of the smallest in history. Again if Kerry had a double digit bounce, this conversation would not be taking place. Kerry would win.


>Bush's approval ratings are in the mid to high 40's .
>When was the last time an incumbent president with these approval >ratings went on to win?

As I said. It is untested territory. Reagan, Clinton, were above 50%. Bush and Carter below 40%. It is **unknown** where the critical point is, and the election is NOT today.

>Bush won the Electoral College Vote but lost the popular vote.

The electoral college has changed since 2000. Bush won states are actually *worth more* electoral now.

>When was the last time a president in that situation went on to win?

"that situation" is unique to *this election*. It is one of the *unknowns*

My examples of the major challenges Kerry faces are *not*. They are based on similar historical "known" events. The *unknowns* are the only thing in Kerrys favor right now.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. We're Playing Games With Words

"My examples of the major challenges Kerry faces are*not*. They are based on similiar "known" events.



It is a historical fact that no president who lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College vote has been reelected....


It is a historical fact that no president with an approval rating where Bush's is now has ever been reelected...


It is a historical fact that Harry Truman is the only president in the modern era who was trailing at this time went on to win and Harry Truman was running against a do nothing opposition congress and George Bush ain't no Harry Truman....

[LabMonkey]

50. Little comfort.

Little comfort. Popular/electoral is so incredibly rare there are no modern examples to examine and compare with.

It is historical fact that no President with Bush approval numbers that he has now *has* or *has not* been re-elected. Its never been tested before. It is unknown where the limit is. That is fact.

Democrats lost ground shortly after 9-11. Registered Democrats and Republicans are in parity. Democrats enjoyed the majority for many years. This is the first Presidential election since parity between the parties.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

52. We Keep Massaging Words....

No president with an approval rating in the 40s has been reelected... Even in the Gallup poll which you want to elevate to the level of mathematical certainty Bush is at 48%..... This is not untested waters... This is an immutable fact... Of course Bush could go up and Bush could go down....


Due to demographic shifts if Bush gets the same percentage of women, Hispanic, and African American votes as he did in 2000 he loses by some 3,000,000 votes....


The parties have been at rough parity for some time with the Dems owning a slight edge and the independents holding the balance of power....

Gore and Nader won near 52% of the vote in 00... Bush and Buchanan won 48% of the vote in 00.... I see nothing to change that dynamic other than that Nader is polling at 1% or 2% not the 5% or 6% he was polling in August of 2000...


This election is a pickem as I stated earlier in the thread...

Or as Larry Sabato , professor of Government at the University of Virginia says" This (election) is CLOSE. Anyone who believes that the election could not go either way is too partisan to be helped."

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2004/president/electoratemap.php

Maybe a weaker Democrat would be demoralized but not a Democrat since birth....

Peace


Brian

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. Even If The States That Bush Won In 00 Have More EC Votes

Doesn't Change The Fact That He Lost The Popular Vote And No Popular Vote Loser In The History Of The Republic Has Been Reelected.


Senators have been elected... Governors have been elected.... Missouri haberdashers have been elected but a popular vote loser has never been reelected...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. The 1980 Debate Changed The Dynamic...

NT

[West Coast Democrat]

40. Yeah, and no loser of the popular vote has ever won....

when up for re-election. So there!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. I Posed Three Legitimate Questions...

You would think he would answer...


He implied I was cocky or stupid for reading too much into one poll when I was relying on several polls and current events...


Earlier in this thread I called the race a pickem with a slight edge to Kerry... I stand by it...


Gore , Nader and the center left got 51% of the vote in 00... Bush, Buchanan and the center right got 49% of the vote in 00....


I see nothing that has changed the dynamic in Bush's favor....


I see a race this year very similar to the 00 race...

[West Coast Democrat]

42. He brings up all of the right-wing talking points

I wonder why.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. I Was Going To Mention That

but I erred on the side of discretion....


A freeper would have to be awful smart to outwit a DUer....


note to mods- i am not referring to anyone in particular....

<wink>

[poliguru]

44. You misunderstand the appropriate use of "never"

See, if we always went with "well, it never happened before" nothing would ever happen for the first time. For example, my great-great-great-grandparents NEVER had TV. So, by your extrapolation, neither do I.

Regardless, I'd like to see the following from you: Define "significant bounce". Define "modest bounce". Also, find for us whether a sitting president EVER was behind in the polls to an as-yet-unknown Democratic challenger in Jan. Cause Dubya was.

[Pepperbelly]

48. I have never had much faith in Faux Snooze polls ...

they twist everything to their advantage in their quest for more tax breaks for Murdoch. And all of the talent.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. Their Polls Were Solid In 2000...

I'm willing to give the devil their due.....

[Pepperbelly]

51. so-so in my view but decide for yourself ... link...

http://www.pollingreport.com/2000.htm#LATEST

[DemocratSinceBirth]

53. They Were Spot On For Pollsters

Look at their last poll 43% 43% without allocating the undecideds....


Gore won by .05%.....


And if you look at the trend they did a nice job.....


Thanks for the link....