He's been there since Feb and is at his low of 44% right now,
based on the average of these nine polls:
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME
Kerry has broken through his 48% barrier to 49.6%.
That means there are 6% other/undecided. Give Kerry at least
4%.
That should put him right near 54% on Nov 2.
And that's being conservative, cause Bush may never get to 45%
the way he's going. He's sinking and McCain is loving every
minute of it.
Contrary to those who think he will get a convention bounce or
that he will LIHOP or raise the terra alert or the economy
will turn around or that the Plame indictments won't come down
or that his AWOL records will never go anywhere or that things
will improve in Iraq or that F9/11 has shot it's load or that
the military will vote for Bush or that Diebold will steal it
for him anyway..
No, I don't think so.
Bush is truly...
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Avg Poll Trend Projection
2004 Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff
Jan 44.0 49.4 -5.4 46.4 53.6 -7.1
Feb 48.0 45.4 2.6 52.6 47.4 5.2
Mar 48.6 44.0 4.6 53.8 46.2 7.5
Apr 47.4 44.9 2.5 52.8 47.2 5.6
May 47.8 44.0 3.8 53.5 46.5 7.1
June 47.1 44.7 2.4 52.8 47.2 5.7
July 48.1 45.0 3.1 52.9 47.1 5.9
Aug 49.6 44.0 5.6 54.1 45.9 8.2