Those who think Clinton will win big in Puerto Rico are in for a big suprise.

[Colobo]

As you all know, I'm Puerto Rican- born and raised there, with 75% of my family and friends there, and I keep myself informed of what's going on constantly.

For those of you that think Clinton is heading for a 70%-30% victory there or something, you are very mistaken. Clinton does have a lot of important supporters there, but Obama has a huge number of important politicians backing him right now, including about 85% of the members of the party in power right now (Popular Democratic Party) and I'd say about 35% of the members of the other big party (New Progressive Party).

You guys need to consider that in the last poll made by Puerto Rico's most important newspaper, El Nuevo Dia about a month ago, Hillary was leading 50% to 39%- and nobody had started campaigning there yet. Now Bill, Chelsea and Michelle are campaigning or have campaigned there, and Obama is putting a lot of money in radio and even TV ads down there. He also has the backing of the Governor, who regardless of what you might have heard about him, has the power to mobilize huge numbers of voters and he has been, along with other legendary figures from that party (former Senate majority leader Miguel Hernandez Agosto, Victoria Muñoz Mendoza, former governor Rafael Hernandez Colón), campaigning actively for Obama. Consider that the 2nd highest figure in the other party (the highest figure, Luis Fortuño, is a Republican) and current candidate for Resident Commissioner for that party, Pedro Pierluisi, is also backing Obama and campaigning for him.

I will try to give you guys a list of the big names that are backing each candidate... but I predict it will be a very close election down there, and Obama has about a 50% chance of winning it.

[datopbanana]

1. It's going to be completely discounted anyway

[ShortnFiery]

2. That's great news! Thanks for the information.

:hi:

[AllentownJake]

3. Can you get them to become a state

So we'll get two new democratic senators? Please...

[Colobo]

5. I wish I could! I'm pro-statehood!

[AllentownJake]

6. It would be a bunch of electoral votes too

Would totally change the map in a very good way.

Puerto Rico is bigger than alot of states and I think they'd be a fine addition to the union.

[woolldog]

21. ooooh, good point.

[Exultant Democracy]

17. shhhhhhh... let them stay cocky.

[SwampG8r]

18. i was there last june

what a great place
food was awesome
rum was FREE
diving was great
people were super nice

BUT.....terrible BBQ

[MonkeyFunk]

26. wait... back up

free rum?

Huh?

[Divernan]

27. Off topic, but could you please PM me

re which dive operation you used? We always connect to Tortola, BVI with an overnight at San Juan, but have not stayed long enough to dive.

Next time you're in Old Town, try Le Chaumiere restaurant - fantastic French food - call for reservations. You have to knock on the door to be admitted - not open to street traffic. We were the only tourists there - place was packed with locals.

[kentuck]

4. I like that news!

That's the best news I've heard tonight. I hope it holds up.

[writes3000]

7. Yay! Wonderful, wonderful news! n/t

[Anderson Perez]

8. By claiming that Hil supporters expect a 70-30% win, you are lowering the bar for Obama

Those of us who read polls are aware that her lead in PR is approx. 10%.

[anigbrowl]

10. Yeah, but to listen to some of her supporters, she's going to win by 95%

There has been some meme going around among her more fervent supporters that she's guaranteed a huge win in PR because no Latino will vote for Barack Obama or something. Not disagreeing with you, just pointing out that a few of her fanbase have been talking it up out of all proportion. I suspect these are the same people who forget about Democratic primaries being proportional and suchlike.

[Colobo]

11. Good point.

[AllentownJake]

9. She hasn't had her chance to break out

that she was actually raised in Puerto Rico. Give it time once her deep personal roots to the Island are unvieled it will be a 90-10 win :sarcasm:

[Dems to Win]

12. Thank you, Katzenkavalier

A few hours ago, I submitted this comment to the Obama website:


Obama campaign, please go to Puerto Rico! Send Bill Richardson plus all the rest of your Spanish-speaking surrogates.

Senator Obama needs a vigorous campaign for the PR primary. A big win for Clinton here could make her the winner (according to some calculations) of the popular vote. And that will mean a floor fight at the convention.

It is all coming down to the 2 million voters in Puerto Rico. Please make a big campaign effort in Puerto Rico!


**************

I'm glad to hear your report with real info from your friends and family. Thanks!

[Name removed]

13. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[FrenchieCat]

14. I should hope so.

Brown people not wanting to vote for Brown people (cause Puerto Ricans really are a mix race people, just like Obama) would be a real shame.......especially, if they were significantly important in determining some important stats. That would be very frightening!

[rufus dog]

15. I saw Terry McDoucheBag on MSNBC tonight

start to mention Puerto Rico after Kentucky as in the bag for Clinton but he stopped at Puer! (Very telling)

And for those of you I offended, I apologize, linking Terry to a Douche Bag is not fair to the latter.

[akbacchus_BC]

16. Hello Katz, am predicting that Obama will win Puerto Rico hands down, n/t

[Secret_Society]

19. Never thought she would win a HUGE victory in PR

But I do think she'll pull a 10% - 15% point win. That will add a large amount to her popular vote total.

[RiverStone]

20. Thanks for sharing --- please keep us posted!

:hi:

[David Zephyr]

22. Katzenkavalier, I have a hunch that you are spot on in your comments.

Hey, when I was a teenager (a million years ago) I spent several months in Puerto Rico. My favorite spot? Luquillo Beach and body surfing at La Pared! Great memories.

I think you are on to something in your observations. I think Senator Obama will do well there.

[Raine]

23. That's really good to hear

THANKS so much for letting us know. :hi:

[Hope And Change]

24. Michelle Obama to Visit Puerto Rico

Michelle Obama to Visit Puerto Rico


Tuesday, May 13th, 2008

The Illinois Senator’s wife will make stops in San Juan and Old San Juan Wednesday.

http://thepage.time.com/2008/05/13/michelle-obama-to-visit-puerto-rico/">Link

--------------------

The Political Schedule

*all times Eastern

Wednesday, May 14


1:00 pm
Michelle Obama attends an airport greet with the First Lady of Puerto Rico at the San Juan airport

2:00 pm
Michelle Obama attends a greeting with a steering committee in Old San Juan, Puerto Rico

3:45 pm
Michelle Obama attends a hospital visit and ribbon cutting ceremony in San Juan, Puerto Rico


http://thepage.time.com/">Link

[hogwyld]

25. Playing Devil's advocate here

But since Obama is in GE mode, and Hillary's going to put all of her resources into PR, she'll be in a position to romp. We all know that they're going to play up the hispanics won't vote for a black man meme, and how the Clintons are PR's best friends going all the way back to their coconut farm days...

[cali]

29. What resources? She's deeply in debt.

[bvar22]

28. Is there any reaction in Puerto Rico.....

...to the way the Hillary campaign attacked Bill Richardson after he endorsed Obama.

"Judas"

We don't need the Latino vote anymore....We already won California

[Quixote1818]

30. Do Puerto Ricans tend to vote differently than other Latino / Hispanic voters?

It seems like those from PR tend to have different issues than Hispanics from Mexico.

[BeyondGeography]

31. K&R for a first-rate update