Behind The Numbers: A Hidden Bounce For Kerry

[Feanorcurufinwe]

Undecided voters seem more impressed than ever with Kerry

such interpretations miss the significance of an electorate where most voters have made up their minds. With just 7% still undecided, according to a July 30-Aug. 1 ABC News/Washington Post poll, tectonic shifts aren't likely. "There's a lot of ice in the river, and it's hard to get much movement," says ABC polling director Gary Langer. That means when the President decamps from New York City on Sept. 2 after the GOP convention, he may not move the dial much, either.

A better way to assess Kerry's performance is to look past the horse-race numbers and dig down into the public's answers. By that standard, he helped himself. In an ABC/Washington Post post-convention poll released on Aug. 2, Kerry holds a 49% to 47% edge among likely voters, a 6-point swing from a month earlier. The Democratic candidate fared much better on personal qualities, where he had suffered in comparison with Bush. On the crucial question of leadership, Kerry cut Bush's pre-convention lead of 19 points to just 6. On the question of which man would keep America more secure, he sliced a 16-point Bush margin to only 3.

How about "values," a word that kept ricocheting inside the FleetCenter? While Bush had a 6-point advantage before the Democratic gathering, Kerry now leads the President by 6. "The convention allowed voters to deepen their understanding of John Kerry's background, values, and plans for the nation," contends campaign pollster Mark Mellman. "From that point of view, it was completely successful."

<snip>

Republican strategists have a much harder time explaining why swing voters are more smitten than ever with Kerry. And while national polls appear little changed by the convention, the extravaganza may have solidified the Democrat's edge in the only count that matters: the state-by-state battle for the Electoral College. According to a Zogby International poll released on Aug. 3, Kerry holds a clear electoral vote lead over Bush, 291 to 215. That's 21 more votes than needed to win, with some 32 electoral votes left in states too close to call.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5622989

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. The intangibles certainly feel better

From the crowds greeting Kerry to the number of bumperstickers, buttons, and signs being seen- it feels really good.

[Beetwasher]

2. The Article Merely Grazes the Real Reason There Was No Bouncew

"But such interpretations miss the significance of an electorate where most voters have made up their minds. With just 7% still undecided, according to a July 30-Aug. 1 ABC News/Washington Post poll, tectonic shifts aren't likely. "There's a lot of ice in the river, and it's hard to get much movement," says ABC polling director Gary Langer. That means when the President decamps from New York City on Sept. 2 after the GOP convention, he may not move the dial much, either."

The reason there was no bounce was that no bounce was really possible.

[fizzana]

3. From working voter registration tables those intangibles

are actually very real.

Admittidly this is in Los Angeles and in a particularly strong Democratic area but I spoke to someone working tables in a suburban area north of LA which is much more conservative and she said the response has been incredible. 10% of people registering are changing their party of choice from Republican to Democrat.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. Cool! eom

[WI_DEM]

5. I think various state polls have been more indicative of a bounce

For instance in NH, ARG reported that Kerry moved from a 2-point edge to a 7-point lead.

In Florida, ARG reported Kerry moving from 3-points up to 7-points up.

In New Mexico Rasmussen reported Kerry up by 7.

In NJ, Quinnipiac reported Kerry moving from from +6 to +13.

[Inland]

6. Getting credibility and seems its translating into support--slowly

Finally the intangibles may be bringing the intent to vote for Kerry.

[Nicholas_J]

7. Been saying this

since the day after Kerry selected Edwards for running mate.
There are simply not enough endecided left to give a large bounce, and the lines are drawn, No one is going to switch camps, Thise who have decided on Bush have decided and are not likely to switch, those who support Kerry are even less likely to switch for two reasons, rather than the one Republicans have. There are those who support Kerry because they support Kerry, and there are those who absolutely will vote for anyone to get Bush out of office and are totally unlikely to switch over at all. I see this as being the results of the extreme division in the nation, but even more on the front loading of the primaries. Very early on the candidates who would be running were fixed, and it created the time for the democrats to solidly decide who they would be voting for and decide this firmly.