Federal Review Election Simulation: 70.8% Probability of Kerry Win

[phillybri]

http://www.federalreview.com/evsim.htm

PROBABILITY KERRY WILL WIN ELECTION
I've updated my Election Simulation. I'll explain in more detail when I get a chance how I've created it, but basically, using my composite results by state and the standard deviation in polling by state (to represent how each state has swung around in its opinion since March of this year), I construct probabilities for each state, then run a monte carlo simulation of 20,000 elections.

With the latest state polling, showing Kerry increasing his lead in several states, the current probability of him winning enough electoral votes to seal the deal is 70.8%.

Thus, out of 20,000 trial elections, Kerry wins 14,165 of them. Bush win 5,593 and there are 242 ties.

:-)

[Zuni]

1. very interesting

But states Bush won in 2000 have increased their percentage of the EC, while Blue states have lost some votes

I hope you are right

Kerry still has been leading in most polls by several points