There's a landslide brewing, folks. Here's the latest 15 poll details.

[TruthIsAll]

LATEST NATIONAL POLLING, FORECAST AND WIN PROBABILITIES

Kerry is ahead in 13, tied in one(CNN) and behind in one (NBC)
		

Includes the new IBD, AP polls.			
						
48.53%	 Average (mean) of most recent 15 national polls
								
4.85%	+ Kerry 70% allocation of undecided/other vote								
53.39%	 = Projected Kerry vote								
									
98.41%	Kerry probability of at least 50% of popular
vote								
									
______				Kerry%	Kerry% undecided/other 				
______	Date	Kerry	Bush	vs.Bush	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%

									
TIME	722	50	45	52.6	52.5	53.0	53.5	54.0	54.5
FOX	804	46	42	52.3	52.0	53.2	54.4	55.6	56.8
CNN/GAL	801	48	48	50.0	50.0	50.4	50.8	51.2	51.6
LAT	721	48	46	51.1	51.0	51.6	52.2	52.8	53.4
PEW	718	46	44	51.1	51.0	52.0	53.0	54.0	55.0
									
IBD	807	49	43	53.3	53.0	53.8	54.6	55.4	56.2
CBS	730	49	43	53.3	53.0	53.8	54.6	55.4	56.2
DEMC	713	52	45	53.6	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7
ABC/WP	802	52	45	53.6	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7
NWK	730	52	44	54.2	54.0	54.4	54.8	55.2	55.6
									
ZOGBY	729	48	43	52.7	52.5	53.4	54.3	55.2	56.1
AP	807	48	45	51.6	51.5	52.2	52.9	53.6	54.3
NBC/WSJ	721	45	47	48.9	49.0	49.8	50.6	51.4	52.2
ARG	801	49	45	52.1	52.0	52.6	53.2	53.8	54.4
QPAC	722	46	43	51.7	51.5	52.6	53.7	54.8	55.9
									
Mean	______	48.53	44.53	52.15	52.00	52.69	53.39	54.08	54.77
Prob	______	______	______	91.31	89.72	95.60	98.41	99.52	99.88

[Dogmudgeon]

1. Let's not get too confident!

There's still three whole months to go before the actual Election, and Team Bush is nothing if not clever.

We can all relax after November 2nd (which I assume is Election Day). Relax, or hide in bed, as the case may be.

--bkl

[David Dunham]

2. We can win but we will have to work very, very hard.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

3. That's funny because I was just about to

post the question "I wonder how long before someone posts not to get overconfident"

[Dogmudgeon]

8. 30 minutes

Overconfidence is a killer. When the wind is at your back, it's impossible to hear that advice too much.

--bkl

[TruthIsAll]

11. Why is it someone always has to warn about "overconfidence"?

I'm just showing some interesting stats. That's all.

No one is "overconfident".

[Feanorcurufinwe]

13. It could be one of two things.

1. an obsession with dousing objects that are not on fire with water.
2. an attempt to dampen enthusiasm

[Dogmudgeon]

15. Why, you ask?

Overconfidence IS a real killer of victory.

The key is to find a level of high confidence that also keeps one's skills and perceptions sharp. Democrats are notorious for slacking off in the final stretch.

This is the Big One. We can do it ... but it's going to take everything we've got.

--bkl

[Name removed]

22. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Dogmudgeon]

33. WTF?

1. The subject header was a rhetorical question.

2. Dishonesty or obtuseness? I'm always cautious and wary about overconfidence.

3. I wasn't making any kind of personal attack on you; please refrain from attacking me.

--bkl

[Name removed]

36. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[athena]

26. Kerry performs best under pressure

The article on p. 67 of the July/August issue of the Atlantic Monthly points out that Kerry performs best in speeches and debates when he's under pressure. The opposite is true of Bush. (More specifically, Kerry does well and Bush does badly when caught unprepared.) So it's important to maintain the pressure on Kerry, while continuing to scare Bush.

One other warning: whenever Bush wins an election, he wins because his rivals get overconfident and underestimate him. It's very important not to underestimate this guy.

[sandnsea]

29. Democrats are lazy voters

That's why. If Democrats start thinking this is a slam dunk, they may just think they don't need to cast their vote. I'd actually rather be down a point or two and have every Democrat know their vote was critical. On the other hand, I'm feeling a "let's landslide this thing" taking hold and that could offset any laziness. And we actually only have 2 months to register voters in most states. TWO months. We've got work to do!

[glitch]

16. Not even then - don't relax until they are out of our White House

and back in Texas. Then we give Texas back to Mexico and close the borders. Ok, just kidding about that last bit.

[drumwolf]

17. actually, we shouldn't relax too much even after Kerry is in

Even after Kerry is sworn in, the Right isn't going to be done. I'm sure they will continue to attempt to bring him down the same way they inflicted heavy damage on the Clinton administration.

[glitch]

18. Yea you're right - I was telling my mom before that we could never relax

again. And for that we should actually be grateful to *co.

They woke us up, and we really needed waking. Time is very short for us on this rare and beautiful planet.

[sandraj]

34. true

on a related note... PNAC was something like 10 years in the making.

Even when Bush is out of office it will be important that the others fade into obscurity and never serve in an official capacity again. Many of those guys were from the Nixon era, and they've served presidents since then. Term limits should apply to more than the president - it should include the "advisors" as well.

Bush on his own would have been fairly harmless I think (in fact, I doubt he would've made it into office). It's the guys around him who are the bigger problem.

[TexasSissy]

32. True. It's looking good, but we're in the "bounce" phase. I'll

feel more confident if we're ahead in the polls at the end of September, after the * bounce after Repub Convention has a chance to subside.

They are going to be ruthless and underhanded in their schemes to win. Let's hope Kerry is made of the same stuff (I think he is).

[TruthIsAll]

37. Kick for Mike Malloy

Mike,

YOU ARE THE BEST!

[jackstraw45]

4. Bush WILL get a convention bounce...it's not over folks...

Things are positive right now but we can't rest for a MOMENT thinking a landslide is ahead.

Bush WILL get a 3-6% bounce and things will be tight!

Florida is probably rigged.

I'm excited about these polls too..shows things going in the right direction for Kerry/Edwards.

But this is the BFEE we're dealing with along with the corporate media, Diebold, & international terrorism used as a political tool.

We've got a LONG way to go.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I Don't Want To Get In A Pissing Match With The Original Poster

but a terrorist attack can change the entire equation....


It's just common sense....


Too many things can happen between now and November to get cocky....

[Feanorcurufinwe]

10. Of course

no one is ever well advised to be cocky or overconfident. But I challenge the idea that a terrorist attack or some other 'October Surprise' will automatically help Bush. People are rejecting Bush precisely because they don't trust him.

[cidliz2004]

25. If No Bushit happens between now and election

IT WILL BE A KERRY WIN BY A COMFORTABLE MARGIN.

That I understand is a big IF. I have a bet with a co worker that if Kerry wins/I win, if Bush wins he wins - I tried to qualify the bet with saying "unless there is a terrorist attack, Osamma is found...all the possible scenerios and he wouldn't buy it. It had to be now exceptions, Bush/Kerry Period, so I took it.

If GOD FORBID, he wins, it will be because some ugly trick was played or some horrific event happened.

I am not a gambling person, but I wouldn't walk away because he wouldn't accept the exception of extraordinary events that could affect the outcome of the election.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

14. Bush needs a 10-15% bounce to maintain the pretense of viability

otherwise it will begin to be undeniable that he is headed for defeat.

[DeepModem Mom]

6. kick

[pa28]

7. It's great but . . .

We'll need a "landslide" just to squeeze in. Think Supreme Court, timid media, apparatus of government in RW hands, BBV, plus this: http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/pipermail/lbo-talk/Week-of-Mon-20040802/017230.html and you have a situation where only a decisive win will restore the republic.

[TruthIsAll]

9. Kick for Wolf Blitzer

Get over it Wolf. Your guy is going down.

[carpetbagger]

12. So Kerry's got a four point lead.

That can vanish in a day, no matter how many zeros follow it.

[powergirl]

19. Thank you for compiling this

My husband is an engineer type and he loves charts and stats. I'm a lawyer type and I like to yell and scream at the Fox News Channel. We look forward to these summaries. You are providing a valuable service. :)

[quaker bill]

20. Bush deserves nothing so much as to lose by a landslide

We just need to stick with it to make it happen. I don't just want him beaten, he needs to be beaten soundly. I want him beaten so soundly that no party will ever consider putting such a jerk at the head of their ticket again.

[drumwolf]

28. that's EXACTLY how i feel too.

I voted for Nader and the Greens in '96 and '00, and my home state of California is solidly blue enough that I'd have the luxury of voting for Nader or Cobb again if I wanted to. However, I'm voting for Kerry anyway because even though my vote will have very little direct effect on the election outcome, I want to use my vote as a clear statement against Bush. I would vote for Kerry regardless of whether my home state was solidly red, a swing state, or overwhelmingly Republican.

[quaker bill]

31. My state is in play

But that hardly matters to me. The republicans deserve all of the punishment that they can be given for this. If they lose the Whitehouse, Senate, and the House, the message might begin to sink in.

[Endangered Specie]

21. Can someone translate into English how they came up with all this.

I don't speak statistician.

[Bucky]

27. Telephone surveyors call folks. Call enough & you get statistical sampling

According to the laws of probability, you need to call 1000 people to get a statistical sampling of a population of people with a 3.1% margin of error. There's a very simple "Margin of Error Calculator" at the ARG website. You can see from there that if you lower the number of people you call, you increase the margin of error.

Strangely enough, it doesn't matter whether you calculate your 1000 interviews as representing 290,000,000 Americans or just the 110,000,000 likely voters for 2004. The size of the population the survey is supposed to represent doesn't change the probability of getting 1000 interview respondents who represent the whole population within a 3.1% margin of error.

There are some caveats on this, however. First, you must do a truly random sampling. If you call at a time of day when mostly retirees or stay at home moms are by the phone, or if you draw your list of phone numbers from a list of recent new car customers (as Gallup did in 1948 when Dewey was supposed to beat Truman), then you will "skew" the results away from a truly representative sampling.

The "3.1% margin of error" is often misunderstood. If Kerry is at 48% and Bush is at 45%, then the results are within the margin of error. But if Kerry is at 50% and Bush is at 45%, you can't both add the MoE to Bush (yielding 48.1%) and subtract the MoE from Kerry (yielding 46.9%) and conclude that the race is still a toss up. You can only adjust for the MoE once.

Finally, all polls come with a disclaimer called a "confidence level". The industry standard is to claim a "95% confidence level." Since you're dealing with probabilites, there's always the chance that you just lucked out and got a bad sampling. So the "95%" means means that there's a 95% chance that if you did the survey again using the same sampling method, you'd get results within that 3.1% margin of error.

In other words, there is a one in 20 chance that your numbers are all pharked up. That's why Truth is all is using multiple surveys--to show that the numbers aren't in that 5% fluke range.

[digno dave]

23. Meaningless

[opihimoimoi]

24. Thank you TIA, you always give me hope.....and I am the cynical one here.

Bush is under intense pressure to give a whooper of a Convention Speech.

Sorry, he won't pull it off. Like the Unity speech 2 days ago, he will meltdown into ooze.

[radfringe]

30. just some scuttlebutt

I don't have any hard figures...but....

in addition to former bush* voters that are now declaring their support for Kerry -- there are many who can't support Kerry or bush* and are declaring for Nader

If this is a trend and not isolated declarations - Nader could be the spoiler for bush* this time around...

[Myrina]

35. oh blah blah

... that horse has been beaten to death already. :eyes:

Nader's not even qualifying to get on the ballot in 75% of the states ! If he gets 10,000 votes nationwide I'll be surprised. Ralph is fast becoming a joke.

If any one/party is gonna be a spoiler, it's gonna be the Libertarians who are going to pull votes from Bush because he's strayed too far into fundie land for the 'true Republicans'.