New Time poll Kerry 48-43 (More new national polls all show Kerry winning)

[59millionmorons]

There is no doubt that if the election was held today Kerry would win. All the polls can't lie. Unless your gallup. Looks like the no bounce meme was a little pre-mature.

Times (no link) Kerry 48-43
Fox (no link) Kerry 47-43

Ap-ipsos Kerry 48-45
http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=273560&category=&BCCode=&newsdate=8/6/2004

Economist poll Kerry 48-43
http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/YouGovE.pdf

Investors business daily Kerry 45-42
http://www.investors.com/editorial/general01.asp?v=8/6

Democracy corps Kerry 49-44
http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/surveys/Democracy_Corps_August_2004_Survey.pdf

[Zynx]

1. Bush is consistently between 43 and 45.

[napi21]

2. Don't get overconfident!

Remember the Pug convention is yet to come, and even that is several weeks away.

I hope Kerry stays on top, but not by very much. If his #'s stay too much above the shrub, Dems won't bother to vote because they'll feel they don't need to.

[RodneyCK2]

6. I read a report that said the Repugs do not expect..

any bounce in the polls after their convention for the same reasons Kerry did not get big bounce. Most voters are locked in, leaving little room for movement.

It will be interesting, but currently, I am bathing in Kerry's poll numbers. Who took the scrub brush,hum?

[movonne]

3. I will only feel comfortable when he is in the low, low 30's better

yet 20's.

[virgdem]

4. All of these polls in Kerry's favor belie the statements in the media...

that Kerry got "no bounce" out of the Convention. But then again, when did the main stream press ever tell the truth?

[TruthIsAll]

5. I have just updated the 15-poll model to include the latest Time poll.

KERRY NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE FORECAST/WIN PROBABILITIES 						
						
48.40%	 Average (mean) of most recent 15 national polls
								
5.04%	+ Kerry 70% allocation of undecided/other								
53.44%	 = Projected Kerry vote								
									
98.54%	Kerry probability of at least 50% of popular
vote								
									
______				Kerry%	Kerry% undecided/other 				
______	Date	Kerry	Bush	vs.Bush	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%
									
TIME	807	48	43	52.7	52.5	53.4	54.3	55.2	56.1
FOX	804	46	42	52.3	52.0	53.2	54.4	55.6	56.8
CNN/GAL	801	48	48	50.0	50.0	50.4	50.8	51.2	51.6
LAT	721	48	46	51.1	51.0	51.6	52.2	52.8	53.4
PEW	718	46	44	51.1	51.0	52.0	53.0	54.0	55.0
									
IBD	806	49	43	53.3	53.0	53.8	54.6	55.4	56.2
CBS	730	49	43	53.3	53.0	53.8	54.6	55.4	56.2
DEMC	713	52	45	53.6	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7
ABC/WP	802	52	45	53.6	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7
NWK	730	52	44	54.2	54.0	54.4	54.8	55.2	55.6
									
ZOGBY	729	48	43	52.7	52.5	53.4	54.3	55.2	56.1
AP	806	48	45	51.6	51.5	52.2	52.9	53.6	54.3
NBC/WSJ	721	45	47	48.9	49.0	49.8	50.6	51.4	52.2
ARG	801	49	45	52.1	52.0	52.6	53.2	53.8	54.4
QPAC	722	46	43	51.7	51.5	52.6	53.7	54.8	55.9
									
Mean	______	48.40	44.40	52.16	52.00	52.72	53.44	54.16	54.88
Prob	______	______	______	91.38	89.72	95.75	98.54	99.59	99.90