Gallup, May 17, 2008

[mystieus]

[K Gardner]

1. Oh NOES !! More numbers !!

[tekisui]

2. 51% Very Good!

[GarbagemanLB]

3. It's the MAP, not the MATH.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[dchill]

21. But stay on your toes, 'cause tomorrow...

it may be the MATH, not the MAP! Depending. Bill's still working that "Florida - it's all Obama's fault" angle.
:shrug:

[highplainsdem]

62. Look at Gallup's national data: Clinton over McCain, McCain over Obama

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107326/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Opens-51-42-Lead.aspx

It's the paragraph beginning "Meanwhile...." That little bit of data showing who'll do better in the GE, Which is what this is all about.

And that data should have been included in the OP, since it is relevant.

[Zachstar]

4. Good!

[WillyT]

5. Nice Trend Lines !!!

:woohoo:

[flpoljunkie]

6. After a strong showing in Gallup's Friday night interviewing!

Obama's current nine percentage point lead is based on a strong showing for the Illinois senator in Gallup's Friday night interviewing. For the past few days, news coverage of Election 2008 has been dominated by the back and forth between Obama and the presumptive Republican nominee John McCain regarding various comments and positions on dealing with Iran and Hamas in the Middle East, and attempts by Obama to underscore the link between McCain and President Bush.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107326/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Opens-51-42-Lead.aspx

[rurallib]

7. I will probably be flamed for this but

didn't Hillary start out in a field of 7 or 8 with a 42% support? Now here we are about 15 months later and she still has 42%. That sure shows some fierce loyalty on one hand and some fierce resistance on the other. I wonder if any other candidate has ever endured such a flat trend?

[tekisui]

8. She's not gotten above 49% since Feb, 6.

It is amazing how she holds. She doesn't really build or bring any new support, but she loses little.

That is why she is not the one for the GE. She would come in with her support, her high negatives and not build.

[anonymous171]

10. Correct. People just do not like her to the point of irrationality.

[wileedog]

13. Apparently some people like her to the point of irrationality too

Hence this Campaign of the Living Dead

[roseBudd]

9. Hillary's unfavorables are so high she has a ceiling, ambivalence is a good place to start from....

dislike and distrust is something very difficult to overcome.

[aaaaaa5a]

15. Good Post!

I've noticed this too.

It's even true among voting in Primaries and Caucuses.

With the exception of West Virginia and Arkansas, she really doesn't blow anyone out!

In states "tailor made for her" like Pennsylvania, she only ended up being victorious by about 9!

And I've read that even Ohio only ended up being a Clinton Victory by 8 or 9 and not the double digit win widely reported.

Heck, in her home state of New York she only took about 57% of the vote.


With Hillary's polarizing nature and high negatives, she is a 42-48% National candidate and regardless of what happens (good or bad) that number is never going to change.

[redstate_democrat]

11. I like those numbers!

[PM7nj]

12. Bush moved the numbers!!!!

:eyes:

:crazy:

[Zachstar]

17. Indeed!

[K Gardner]

22. ROFL !

[PBS Poll-435]

14. LOL You Missed These!!!

[anonymous171]

16. Dead Heat.

[PBS Poll-435]

19. You don't see the corrolation?

Obama takes a huge 51-42% lead among Democrats. This represents about 1/3 of the GE matchup sample.

And then, in the GE matchup polls, Obama loses to McCain while Clinton wins.

Clinton has been at 48-49% against McCain for 8 days and McCain has been at 44-45% for 11.

[jenmito]

23. Awwww...if it makes you feel better...

OH NO!!! We better nominate HILLARY! :rofl:

[dchill]

20. I'm starting to actually feel pretty bad for you.

See, TODAY it's 51-42 Obama. TODAY.

:shrug:

[PBS Poll-435]

26. Thanks for the help!

[dchill]

30. Glad to be of assistance.

I like your style!

[PBS Poll-435]

32. Good. I am glad that you caught it.

And I am NOT bitter about being called out on it.

:D

[movonne]

39. If you can find something bad to post about Obama you right there

Johnnie at the rat hole...why don't you start being a little more positive...it's good for the mind..

[PBS Poll-435]

42. Polls beget Polls, I guess.

Even when they are from the same pollster!

[Kahuna]

66. Yawn. Just some P'Od hillbots claiming they will vote for McCain..

because their widdle feewings are hurt. :cry:

[me b zola]

18. K&R

[lojasmo]

24. Gallup should follow Rasmussen's lead.

Stop polling this sham of a race. It's over.

[PBS Poll-435]

27. Nah

Why IGNORE the race?

[jenmito]

28. WHAT race?

:rofl:

[PBS Poll-435]

29. At least until Tuesday.

:-)

[jenmito]

31. It's unofficially over. It's on to the GE!

:) I'll welcome you when you start rallying behind OUR nominee.

[PBS Poll-435]

34. Yeah it is about 75/25 as far as Obama's chances right now, but

We don't have a nominee or even a presumptive nominee.

Just a likely nominee.

[jenmito]

36. That's a rosy scenario for Hillary. It's more like 99/1.

He IS the presumptive nominee.

[PBS Poll-435]

40. At least EVEN YOU admit Hillary has a shot!

:rofl:

[jenmito]

44. Yes. A 1% shot which leaves room for some catastrophic event.

:hi:

[totodeinhere]

63. I guess it's theoretically possible that they could nominate me for that matter.

[phrigndumass]

25. In further news ...

I like Gallup's poll tracking, but ...



:D

[Zachstar]

46. Nice!

[rug]

33. Meanwhile...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/kentucky/kentucky_democratic_primary

[jenmito]

35. Got anything more recent than May 6th?

[rug]

38. May 20 will be more definitive.

[PBS Poll-435]

37. Don't forget this one....More Recent

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/polls/Kentucky-May-2008.html

[rug]

41. Thank you. It's now 65-29, jen.

[jenmito]

48. I saw. That's great for Hillary. She'll go out on a high note!

:hi:

[jenmito]

43. That's the ARG poll which was WAY off re: NC which had HILLARY up by 4 IIRC.

[PBS Poll-435]

45. You don't 'Recall Correctly.'

That was ONE Insider Advantage poll

[jenmito]

47. OK, then I didn't RC.

So sue me. :)

[PBS Poll-435]

49. It's Saturday!

:rofl:

[jenmito]

50. What does that have to do with anything?

[PBS Poll-435]

51. I will have to wait until Monday to file that lawsuit!

:hide:

[jenmito]

52. I don't get it.

[PBS Poll-435]

53. You said "So sue me!"

I said I will have to wait until Monday.

:-)

[jenmito]

54. Damn. I'm slow today...

but ONLY today. So sue me. (Good one.) :)

[msallied]

55. Does any Hillary fan ever notice that the woman hasn't reached or broken 50 percent

ONCE since April? Egads, man... if that dark green line doesn't represent a downward trend, there isn't much that does.

[rug]

56. if you don't count West Virginia. Oh wait, that wasn't a poll, it was an election.

[msallied]

57. Yeah, NO ONE predicted that victory months ago...

:sarcasm:

[rug]

59. Looks lie Kentucky will be a real nail-biter.

[gristy]

58. A 5 point shift in his lead in just one day is pretty amazing

when you consider that each point on the graph is an average of that day's result and the two days prior.

The Democratic nomination results are based on combined data from May 14-16, 2008. For results based on this sample of 1,237 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107326/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Opens-51-42-Lead.aspx

[AtomicKitten]

60. Very nice.

:thumbsup:

[highplainsdem]

61. Gallup's new NATIONAL election data: Clinton ahead of MCCain, McCain ahead of Obama

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107326/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Opens-51-42-Lead.aspx

Meanwhile, the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking data on the national election, from May 12-16, finds McCain remaining slightly ahead of Obama, 47% to 44%, among registered voters, while Clinton -- despite the widespread assumption that she will not be the Democratic nominee -- is doing better than Obama against McCain, with a slight 2-point advantage over the Arizona senator, 47% to 45%.

This was included in the message about the new Gallup polls by someone who posted about Gallup in the topic about the Rasmussen poll.

Interesting that it wasn't mentioned in the OP here.

[totodeinhere]

64. You forgot to mention that both of those polls are within the statistical margin of error.

However, Obama's lead over Clinton is outside the margin of error.

[mystieus]

65. I think Obama's counter-punch worked.

[Zachstar]

67. I agree

[grantcart]

68. 42 which is where she started in January

4 points and still at the same place

what a flatline