Does Kerry HAVE to win Florida?

[bushwakker]

I hate to start getting into the electoral college math so early but I decided to take a look today. Assuming support for neither candidate collapses how does JK get to 270? Even giving him states like WV, NM, MI, NH, WI, IA which are all very close I still get only 269 - at which point the GOP steals it somehow right? So much of AWOL Country is really impregnable (the upper plains, deep south) and JK's margin of error is non-existent. Clinton was able to pick off some southern states LA, AL, GA, AK but I don't know if JK can. It seems the best chances are in Ariz, Nev and maybe No Car? Personally I just don't see Ohio going Dem. I hate to be negative but this is a tough road and it may lead through Florida once again.

[JI7]

1. not in the way he HAS to win California and New York

it depends on whether he gets ohio, new hampshire, west virginia etc.

[olddem43]

2. NO he doesn't . He can win if

he only wins one other state that Gore didn't.

[JI7]

assuming he wins all the state gore won

remember some of the states gore won , he only won by a very small amount so it should not be considered easily in kerry's column. we will have to fight hard for some of those states just as we fight hard for ones we lost in 2000.

[Wabbajack]

23. What's the most vulnerable Gore state?

Wisconsin? Minnesota?

[bushwakker]

26. WI, MN and IA are all real close

JK can't lose any of these.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. not quite....

Gore 00 states + NH leaves u short of 270

[bushwakker]

I think that some Gore states have lost elec votes

because of census the #'s have changed. I'm giving him NH and WV (two Gore lost) and I still get 269?

[yardwork]

54. That's true. The northeast and midwest lost electoral votes

and the south gained, so Kerry has to do better than Gore.

I still think that Kerry will win Ohio, though.

[LiberalFighter]

57. There is a difference of about 10/11 electoral votes from 2000 to 2004

[lancdem]

3. He has a very good shot at Missouri, too

which went for Bush in 2000. And he's very close in Tenn. and Arkansas. He also will likely win Nevada.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I Think Kerry Has To Win FL or OH

Of course there are all kinds of combinations where he can win without those states but it becomes more problematic....

If he holds all the Gore states plus WV and NH I believe he gets to 270 and I believe most unbiased onservers would say OH and FL are more within reach than NC which hasn't gone Dem since 1976*



*yeah, I know a native son is on the ticket....

[noahmijo]

8. I just have to pipe in had Gore won Arizona (10 electoral votes)

Even with * stealing Florida, Gore would've won with no argument.

Arizona will go for Kerry this year mark my words it will.

[bushwakker]

14. You promise?

You wouldn't bullshit me now would you?

[noahmijo]

21. I don't bullshit my friend

No I am not up to any crooked ideas, it will be done fair and square, we're working hard out here to promote Kerry, and as evidenced by our election of a very liberal governor (Napalitano) the key is to get every liberal in Tucson to vote for Kerry, and in Phoenix (which leans conservative but not by much these days) get every liberal to put up a good fight to the conservative base which rules it.

With Phoenix's Democrats holding strong, and Tucson's Dems getting the vote out Kerry could narrowly take Arizona away.

[NMDemDist2]

42. and we'll make Zomby Woof drive all the Dems in Flag to the polls

we'll have it in the bag :)

[tedoll78]

9. Nope..

Gore + NH + WV gets him to 269EVs; he'd need one more state.

[yardwork]

55. I live in NC and grew up in OH and I agree with your assessment

If Kerry wins NC it will be as part of an electoral college landslide where he wins almost every other state as well. There are pockets of liberals in NC, and I know that Bush is not going to do as well here as he expects with the military vote, but overall I think the state is still red.

It's a lighter shade of red but red nonetheless. I hope I'm wrong!

[NMDemDist2]

5. if he loses OH he needs FL IMO n/t

[bushwakker]

24. Can Kerry win Arizona?

I was reading how population shifts have changed the demographics of AZ and it's now much less of a GOP state.

[NMDemDist2]

40. we're working our hearts out, AZ went for BigDawg in '96 so it's

a real possibility

[tedoll78]

6. No.

If he wins the Gore states, plus West Virginia and Nevada, he wins it all. Both WV and NV have recent polls showing Kerry pulling ahead. In fact, if I were running Kerry's campaign, I'd take Nevada and West Virginia almost as seriously as Ohio and Florida.. as a good backup plan.

[bushwakker]

12. AZ - WV - NH - NV could be the real game - not OH & FL

Call me a pessimist - I just can't see FL or OH in the Dem column.

[shawmut]

27. self delete

[MoonRiver]

45. How can you people actually consider FL to be a possible Kerry win???

With Jeb in charge, I might add.

On a happier note, its great to hear that AZ is in play!!

[bluestateguy]

10. Either Florida or Ohio

Anything less than a 50,000 vote plurality for Kerry in Florida and the Bush people WILL steal it.

The other option for Kerry would be to lose Ohio and Florida, but win AZ along with either NV or NH.

[bringbackfdr]

44. If they let everyone vote and count them all ...

Kerry could win Florida going away. I can't believe that the anger over 2000 isn't going to inspire the mother of all get-out-the-vote efforts among all the communities, ethnic and otherwise, who were disenfranchised. Of course, Jeb will do all he can to make sure voters don't vote and votes don't get counted.
When they talk about Daley stealing Chicago in 1960, Jeb makes Daley look like a boy scout.

[Worthless Teen]

11. The way I see it

If Kerry can win either FL or OH, he wins the election.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Bush Definitely Has To Win OH and FL Though

NT

[bushwakker]

18. That's a glass half full way of looking at it

Ohio is just a real tuff nut to crack and JebWorld ain't much better.

[shawmut]

15. Kerry could lose both Florida and Ohio and still win

IF he wins NH, WV and NV. And if Kerry wins MO without OH and FL he would win.


With that said, we really need Florida or Ohio to come through for us. We need some breathing room.




on edit: MO has more electoral votes than I thought. He would only have to win MO and not need any other those smaller states to win.

[bushwakker]

30. Basically I'm trying to put together 270 without FL or OH

I don't think he'll win either. So then you start looking at NH, WV, AZ, NV - which would do it. Of course you'd have to hold all of the Gore 2000 states. It's pretty hard to do and there's no margin for error.

[shawmut]

36. Well, you have 260 electoral votes if Kerry holds the Gore states

So that means you need 10.

AZ has 10 electoral votes. NH has 4. NV and WV have 5.


and, btw, MO has 11.

[olddem43]

16. We were discussing the Ohio and Fla. races today -

With these two states there are four possible outcomes:

1. Kerry wins both
2. Kerry wins Fla. but not Ohio
3 Kerry wins Ohio but not Fla. (unlikely)
4. Bush wins both

For outcomes 1,2,& 3, Kerry will win the election for sure. For outcome # 4, Kerry can still win and all he has to do is win a state that Gore didn't such as W.VA, Tenn, or Ark. This assumes that he holds all the Gore states. Still, not a bad prognosis.
\

[tritsofme]

34. Not quite

Bush can loose either WV NH or NV and still win.

If NH and NV or NH and WV both go to Kerry and the 2000 map stays the same its 269-269 tie, it gets decided in the House and Bush wins.

If he looses a Tenn or an Arkansas Kerry wins.

[bushwakker]

43. I believe the 2000 census changed some of the elec votes

Giving JK Gore plus NH and WV still leaves him at 269.

[WilliamPitt]

17. No

Ohio.

[bushwakker]

19. I think OH is tougher to win than Florida

I'm almost conceding OH to AWOL at this point. Latest polls from FL have been very good and I've yet to see one from OH with JK ahead of AWOL.

[olddem43]

22. That's right. Ohio always goes Repug except in a landslide.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Carter Carried Ohio In 1976....

And the 76 election was a squeaker...

[bushwakker]

31. I think Clinton lost it twice?

seems to be trending GOP these days. I'm basically thinking that JK needs to find a way to 270 without either FL or OH.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. Clinton Carried Ohio In 92 And 96

NT

[bushwakker]

39. God my memory is geeting bad

that's a pretty hopeful sign.

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

48. Dont forget Perot was a real factor in those elections.

could have skewed it to Clinton.

[ButterflyBlood]

63. Ohio's a big labor state

it's very protectionist. Opposition to NAFTA and protectionism was one of Perot's big issues. Don't buy that most of his votes came from Poppy, at least not in Ohio.

[freetobegay]

20. Kerry loses Florida, he loses the election.

[olddem43]

25. Not necessarily true -

Check this out and do the math, http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. How So?

NT

[BlueScreen]

32. No way-- check out these online resources

As nice as it would be to have Florida's 27 electoral votes in the blue, I think we would do well to almost consider Florida going to the other team. I am in the middle of the film Unprecedented, which describes in detail the various layers of fraud and disenfranchisement that occurred in 2000 which resulted in the state going to Bush. Given what we know about Jeb's political machine (when asked what he would do for Florida's African Americans if elected as governor in 1996, he replied "Probably nothing"), as well as the electronic voting fiasco taking shape, I am priming myself for Florida going red. If I'm wrong, I will be pleasantly surprised.

The fact is that the so-called Rust Belt of the Midwest is sizing up as one of the most important undecided block of states this year. Illinois is going to the Dems; Indiana, to the Republicans. But Ohio, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, and Kentucky are all undecideds-- and they together hold 83 electoral votes. Given how hard these communities have been hit by the economic downturn, Kerry has wisely decided to focus much of his campaigning in these battleground states.

Here is an online electoral calculator: http://www.latimes.com

Just go down to the 2004 Electoral Vote Tracker-- it's toward the bottom of the page under the heading Multimedia. The great thing about the pop-up interactive map is that you can assign each state to either candidate and see how different scenarios play out. As you move your mouse over each state, the latest polling results appear below, so you can make an informed guess as to which candidate you wish to assign it to.

Another great site that's on my daily must-reads is: www.swingstateproject.com. It's run by an avowed liberal, but he gathers his facts from numerous independent polls in key battleground states. His site gives you a one-stop shop for the latest polls in each swing state.

Please do not take my remarks about Florida the wrong way: were I living there, I would be actively making sure that every ballot counts. Since I am outside the state, I do not want to depend on it. If Kerry gets into a position where he can win even without Florida, then we should be in good shape.

Cheers,
Sagar

[DaveinMD]

33. Kerry

needs to win any one of MO, FL or OH. Don't count out CO either

[graywarrior]

37. You would not believe how hard we are working in FL

to get him elected and to get rid of Katherine. I never saw so many people volunteering their time to work an election. It's a beautiful thing.

[bushwakker]

41. thank you graywarrior

keep fighting

[DaveinMD]

66. thank you

for your work. We are all pulling for you and depending on you.

[Lancer]

38. Ohio

is almost like two states. The southern half is industrial/agricultural, and even though hard hit by job losses, seems to always go R.

The north is urban, full of good universities and professional enclaves and thus is Kerry friendly.

It will be close in OH, but if Bush wins it, as history has proven for the life of the Republican Party, it's game over.

[DaveinMD]

67. actually

history shows Republican must have Ohio to win. We can win without Ohio.

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

46. I agree with you about Ohio...heartbreaker elections...

..close, but the state is just really conservative and GOP. People are decieved by the Democratic strenght in the rustbelt areas, but the GOP just piles on the votes in SW Ohio, the rural western and central areas, and in the suburbs/exurbs.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. how did clinton win it twice and how did gore get 47% after

pulling out his campaign three weeks before the election to focus on florida

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

50. Perot skewed the resulst in '92 and '96

but the Gore election shows that Ohio is close, but tilts slightly to the GOP.

Dont set your stars on Ohio, especially given the big GOTV/voter registration drive the churches are doing here.

[yardwork]

56. True, but there are a huge number of vets in rural SE Ohio

which is where I'm from, and my family still there says the vets are hopping mad about Iraq. I don't think the Swift Boat ad is making Bush* any friends there right now either.

They're socially conservative and slow to anger, but if they feel that they have been lied to, rural Ohioans will vote their conscience with a vengeance. They are not tied to any one particular party. If I were Chimpy I would not be counting on them.

Of course he's doing all he can to get the Amish to vote for him.

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

64. Actually thats the only rural area that could go Dem...SE Ohio...

this part of the state has proven that it will elect Democrats, both to the statehouse and to Congress, and also these countys will go Dem for Presidential elections, too....

[usregimechange]

49. He doesn't need FL or OH but would be hard to win without 1 nt

[Zynx]

51. No because he'll win by such a wide margin, Florida will be irrelevant.

[featherman]

52. adding likely NH and WV to Gore states gives Kerry 269

Need any one of the following to win(in most probable order):
FL, NV, MO, OH, AR, AZ, CO, TN, VA, NC, LA, MT

Most at risk of Gore states: probably Wisconsin at this point.

I like WI, IA and MN to end up in Kerry camp but it's a bit dicey right now. IL and MI are solid. The Pacific states (HI, CA, OR, WA) and NM are solid as is the Mid Atlantic/Northeast region (from MD and DC north).

[VirginiaDem]

53. Good way to show that the glass is more than half full

There's a reason that most electoral projection websites have Kerry beating Bush by 10-100 votes. We only need to find ten red votes to turn and hold the blue. Bush's defenses are much more precarious than Kerry's; Bush has between 40 and 70 more electoral votes that are contested. We don't have to have Florida or Ohio because we're likely to pick up quite a few more reds than we lose.

[restorefreedom]

58. Ohio and the southwest..

will be where it's at. Actually, I am more worried about Ohio or Missouri. They would have to be true morons to try and steal Florida again. This time, they are going to pull it somewhere else.

[restorefreedom]

59. oh and I forgot to say...

I'm new here!

Hi everyone

[RichV]

62. howdy howdy

and welcome to du! :hi:

[Redneck Socialist]

60. Not necessarily

Kerry needs to win two out of these three: OH, PA or FL. Ohio is going to be very tough. I think PA and FL are the most winnable for us.

[ButterflyBlood]

61. no

Kerry has a better chance in AR and MO than most give him, and yes OH as well. He also has a great shot in NV, and NV + WV would put him over the top.

However, if he wins FL, he wins the election. period. so Kerry doesn't need FL, but * DOES. Same with Ohio.

[Endangered Specie]

65. No, but it sure would seal the deal if he did.

[Nicholas_J]

68. No

But the some of the latest polls give Kerry a very big lead in Florida, too big a lead for anything suspect to occur again. Kerry has much more of a lead in this state than Gore did in 2000.