Professor Sam Wang (Princeton) agrees: Probability of a Kerry win is 98%.

[TruthIsAll]

I have calculated the probability of a Kerry win at 98%.
Professor Sam Wang has independently come up with exactly the same number.

His approach is different then mine. But we both agree.

As of today (no one can predict the future): Bush is Toast.

Here is my analysis:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x600977

ELECTION FORECAST / SIMULATION MODEL
Created by TRUTHISALL

National Polling data: Pollingreport.com
State Polling data: Electoral-vote.com


NATIONAL POLL AVERAGE AND PROJECTIONS (%)
National model - based on 15 polls
State model proj. - based on latest state polls
Projections assume 70% of undecided/other to Kerry

______ Nat. Nat. State Comb. Elec.
______ Current Proj. Proj. Proj. Votes
Kerry 48.6 53.5 53.0 53.2 330
Bush 44.5 46.5 47.0 46.8 208
Diff 4.1 6.9 5.9 6.4 122
Und/oth 6.9

WIN PROBABILITIES (%)
Current Prob. assumes current split of undec/other
Proj. Probabilities assumes 70% undec/other to Kerry

______ Nat. Nat. State Comb.
______ Current Proj. Proj. Proj.
Kerry: 90.6 97.9 98.0 98.0

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Here is Professor Sam Wang's site:
http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

Likelihood analysis of all possible outcomes of election based on state-by-state polls

Calculations by Prof. Sam Wang, Princeton University

This calculation is a snapshot in time. It takes a large number of state polls and calculates the likeliest number of electoral votes if the election were held today and reflected those polls. Your criticisms and comments are welcome.

snip

Results as of Friday, August 6, 2004 based on state polls as compiled by RealClearPolitics

Counting the last three polls the current probability of a Kerry win is 98 percent. 270 electoral votes (EV) are needed to win. The median (50th percentile) outcome is Kerry 307 EV, Bush 231 EV. The 95 percent confidence band for Kerry is 275-323 EV. Most battleground states have at least one poll completed since the Democratic National Convention.

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[WI_DEM]

1. While the polls have been encouraging I don't think they

mean as much until after Labor Day and after each party has had its convention. While I agree that right now things do look encouraging.

[yardwork]

2. chimp-boy hasn't finished with his circus tricks yet

I expect them to throw more mud all over Kerry and his supporters, come up with more scary terra alerts, and generally keep the heat on until the election.

Our job as foot soldiers is to keep swatting down the lies.

Sort of like the whack-a-mole game at the state fair.

[TruthIsAll]

3. And the 98% Kerry win prob. is based on polls which are biased for Bush!

tia

[TruthIsAll]

4. kick

tia

[Poiuyt]

5. The only problem with this is that it could change instantly

If there is a terroist attack between now and November, it would change the whole picture. And Bush/Rove knows this. This election year is like none other, especially when we have one candidate who is more than willing to play dirty.