Kerry doesn't need Ohio OR Florida

[ButterflyBlood]

it's true picking up one of those is probably the simplest way to win and ends *'s chances for good, but there are many other ways if he can hold on to all Gore states. And right, he's leading in all of them. So he can win with Gore + these:

-2 of these 3: NV, WV and AR
-MO + NH or WV or NV or AR

all these states have been polling either close or FAVORING Kerry lately. While Kerry should definately concentrate on those two, all is not lost without them.

[NV1962]

1. Perhaps not, but he's bleeding B/C's campaign coffers dry! (n/t)

[DCdem87]

2. hey

have you been to electoral-vote.com ? it is a great site that puts all of the latest polling information into an electoral vote map. it is very enlightening, plus is show results of the '92 '96 and '00 elections so just in case you ever get upset about 2000 you can always look back to 1992 and 1996 to see how bad Clinton kicked ass!!

[ButterflyBlood]

4. even better site for election rsults:

www.uselectionatlas.org

[RummyTheDummy]

11. I don't get that site

It shows the Lib. candidate with 265 electoral votes. Doesn't make a lot of sense.

[ButterflyBlood]

14. are you talking about the mock election?

a group of Libertarians found it and decided to "freep" it. It is nice to see Dumbass in 3rd place with barely any electoral votes though.

[athena]

13. This is also pretty good:

http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/2004_ELECTIONGUIDE_GRAPHIC/

Click "Presidential Calculator".

[Jack Rabbit]

3. But it would be nice if he had them

After Jeb's shenanigans, Florida will be sweeeeet!!

After Diebold CEO Walden O'Dell says he'll deliver the Ohio vote to Bush, that will be pretty good, too.

[FloridaPat]

5. I still want him to get Florida with lots of votes. Then I want him to

take his new attorney general and sic him/her onto the republicans in this stupid state that stole the last election.

If I were pres the first thing I would do would be to arrest every single one of those repubs that had anything to do with anything the lasdt 3.5 years. I would charge them with treason and being enemy combatents and send the to Guantanamo without lawyers. Second I would pull Halliburton out of Iraq and everywhere else and start an investigation there. And once Halliburton is out of Iraq I;m sure others would be willing to come in.

[King of New Orleans]

6. I want/need him to win Fla and Ohio

eom

[shawmut]

7. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think he can win MO and win the election

without any other states ... as long as holds the Gore states, of course.

[jmknapp]

9. Population shift works against Kerry

I think you're right about MO. The blue states have lost 7 electoral votes since the 2000 census. Blue states now total 260 EV, 10 EV short of the 270 needed to win.

MO has 11 EV, so that puts Kerry over the top.

Considering single states, to win Kerry would need to pick up MO, AZ, IN, VA, GA, NC, OH, FL, or TX from the red states.

[Redneck Socialist]

8. ehhh, I think he needs at least one of them

I'll be pleasantly surprised if Kerry can pick up WV, MO or AZ. On the other hand I think NH will definitely go for Kerry and AR is possible.

Based on that and assuming Kerry gets PA then he will still need either OH or FL. FL is the more "getable" of the two I think.

[fujiyama]

10. Difficult

to win without these two states, though I agree it is possible.

I've heard some saying forget about FL, but that state shouldn't be conceded even if Jeb is in power. Polls have been showing Kerry ahead or tied. Demographics and other factors favor democrats in that state.

OH holds its own possibilities -- job losses are the biggest factor.

Overall I think Kerry should be able to win FL in a free and fair election. It's worth too many EVs not to be faught with the attention it deserves.

Kerry has a chance in the other states you mentioned. I think NH is a very likely pick up. WV is a strong possibility. AR, NV, and MO are clearly toss ups, and I think resources should be invested there, but I think his chances are best in FL (assuming it weren't fraudulent).

[featherman]

12. adding likely NH and WV to Gore states gives Kerry 269

Need any one of the following to win(in most probable order):
FL, NV, MO, OH, AR, AZ, CO, TN, VA, NC, LA, MT

Most at risk of Gore states: probably Wisconsin at this point.
I like WI, IA and MN to end up in Kerry camp but it's a bit dicey right now.

IL and MI are solid. The Pacific states (HI, CA, OR, WA) and NM are solid as is the Mid Atlantic/Northeast region (from MD and DC north).

[Dying Eagle]

15. we are going alright in WI

I work at a somewhat "redneck" bar as a bartender on the weekends. All this weekend it seamed everyone was talking politics. 90% of what i over-heard were Kerry supporters. I also live in a very Conservative area of WI. With the 80,000 Manufacturing jobs gone and the VERY liberal voting base in Madison and Milwaukee, Wisconsin will go to Kerry!

[KharmaTrain]

16. Wisconsin, Iowa & Minnesota Are Ours...

Iowa has been solid Democratic in every election since '88 (Yep, they voted for Dukakis). The run-up in fuel prices is hurting this state badly.

Wisconsin still has a very strong Progressive streak that is getting energized by the mess this regime has created and a depressed industrial and farming economy. Also there have been some demographic shifts...city folks moving out into the Repugnican hinterlands. Don't forget Russ Feingold's up for re-election as well and this could have a positive effect for Kerry.

Lastly, Minnesotans know they have to make ammends for that tool Coleman and the Wellstone fiasco. What's a nicer payback than to give the manchild a good thrashing. The DFL looks like it's united and ready to regain it's strength at Junior's detriment.

Ohio, Missouri and West Virigina are the keys. Win those and Jebbie can go Chenney himself. I also think there's a solid chance to push Nevada and Arizona as well as New Hampshire.

Pundit have said repeatedly that this election will break in the last couple weeks...and if the current trends hold, several, if not all of these stays will break our way.

[VirginiaDem]

17. actually, it's better news than that

If the map were to go just as it did in 2000, Bush wins 278-260. That gives Bush an 18-vote lead as Red states gained 7 and Blue states lost a corresponding 7 due to the census reapportionment. So Kerry just needs to hold the Gore states and swing 10 votes, which would give him 270 and Bush 268 to win. That means Arizona alone would do it. In that scenario we don't need NH, NV, WV or any other red state. In a close race, though, we probably don't take Arizona without taking NH and WV anyway.

[jmknapp]

18. Insurance

But OH with 20 votes gives a much better margin than AZ. Remember that some blue states went only narrowly for Gore, so it would be good to allow the possibility of losing one (say NM or IA) that an Ohio or Florida win would afford.

[VirginiaDem]

19. That's true

and so there's need and then there's need. Taking either Florida or Ohio makes Bush's chances much worse. So, under the more lenient definition of "need", we need one of them.

[gasperc]

20. best defense is good offense

Bush has to be forced to defend states they hoped would be locks otherwise they could spend all their time trying to take away Iowa or MN which would kill us

[Chili]

21. my own opinion, of course, but...

...no matter how many times I go over these numbers,... I still come up with a tie - it's a nightmare I can't even imagine:

KERRY

California 55
Connecticutt 7
Delaware 3
D. of C. 3
Hawaii 4
Illinois 21
Iowa 7
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 12
Michigan 17
Minnesota 10
New Hampshire 4
New Jersey 15
New Mexico 5
New York 31
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 21
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 3
Washington 11
West Virgina 5
Wisconsin 10
= 269

BUSH

Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 10
Arkansas 6
Colorado 9
Florida 27
Georgia 15
Idaho 4
Indiana 11
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 9
Mississippi 6
Missouri 11
Montana 3
Nebraska 5
Nevada 5
North Carolina 15
North Dakota 3
Ohio 20
Oklahoma 7
South Carolina 8
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 34
Utah 5
Virginia 13
Wyoming 3
=269

Because the founding fathers didn't anticpate a 2-party system, in the case of a tie in the Electoral College, the vote goes to the House, and you know how that comes out.

I pray Kerry takes either Florida or Ohio. This scenario would cause chaos surpassing 2000.

[VirginiaDem]

22. It's only a real possibility

not the most likely scenario. You've got at least five states on each list that could go the other way. Even in a close popular vote race, the odds of hitting 269-269 are pretty low.