8/9 KERRY: 98.0% WIN PROB.; 53.2% POP VOTE ; 330 ELEC. VOTES

[TruthIsAll]

								
ELECTION FORECAST / SIMULATION MODEL								
Created by TRUTHISALL								
								
National Polling data: Pollingreport.com								
State Polling data: Electoral-vote.com 								
								
								
CURRENT POLL AVERAGES AND PROJECTIONS (%)								
National - based on 15 polls								
State - based on latest state polls								
Projections assume 70% of undecided/other to Kerry								
								
								
______	Curr. 	Curr. 	Curr. 	Proj. 	Proj. 	Proj.	Elec.	
______	Nat.	State	Comb.	Nat.	State	Comb.	Votes
							
Kerry	48.6	46.5	47.5	53.5	53.0	53.2	330
Bush	44.5	44.3	44.4	46.5	47.0	46.8	208
Diff	4.1	2.2	3.2	6.9	5.9	6.4	122
Other	6.9	9.3	8.1				
							
KERRY WIN PROBABILITIES (%)							
Current probs. assume proportional und/other alloc.			
Proj. probs. assume 70% undecided/other to Kerry.				
Proj. state prob. from 1000 EV simulation trials.							
							
Prob	90.6	93.0	91.8	97.9	98.0	98.0	
							
NATIONAL/WIN PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS							
Impact of various allocation assumptions							
Kerry:
Alloc	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	
Vote	52.1	52.8	53.5	54.1	54.8	
Prob	88.9	94.9	97.9	99.3	99.8	
						
						
ELECTORAL VOTE/ WIN PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS						
One thousand simulated election trials.						
						
Simulation I: Conservative Case 						
Assume:	60%	of undecided/other to Kerry.				
						
Kerry	52.0%	of the vote.				
Wins 	92.8%	of 1000 election trials. 				
Avg  	313	electoral votes.				
Max  	392	electoral votes.				
			
			
Simulation II: Most Likely Case 			
Assume:	70%	of undecided/other to Kerry.	
			
Kerry	53.0%	of the vote.	
Wins 	98.0%	of 1000 election trials. 	
Avg  	330	electoral votes.	
Max  	408	electoral votes.	
			
			
Simulation III: Optimistic Case 			
Assume:	80%	of undecided/other to Kerry.	
			
Kerry	53.9%	of the vote.	
Wins 	99.7%	of 1000 election trials. 	
Avg  	348	electoral votes.		
Max  	441	electoral votes.		
				
				


LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS				
(in millions of votes)				
Dem	138.78	52.6%		
Rep	125.03	47.4%		

				

BUSH JOB APPROVAL				
Data source: PollingReport.com    				
				
2004	Avg	Nwk	Fox	CNN	Pew	Harris	CBS	ABC	Time	NBC	AP	Zogby
Jan	54.50	50	58	60	56	na	50	58	54	54	56	49
Feb	49.67	48	48	51	48	51	50	50	54	na	47	na
Mar	48.75	48	48	49	46	na	51	50	na	50	48	na
Apr	48.80	49	50	52	48	48	46	51	49	na	48	47
May	45.20	42	48	47	44	na	41	47	46	47	48	42
June	47.00	na	48	49	48	50	42	47	na	45	48	46
July	48.00	48	47	47	46	na	45	50	50	48	50	49
Aug	45.86	45	44	48	na	na	44	47	na	na	49	44
												
												
												
												
NATIONAL POPULAR TREND												
Data source: PollingReport.com    												
												
Average of 10 national polls:						
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME,DEMCORP						
						
Kerry projected vote equals the poll average						
plus 70% of undecided/other voters.						
						
	Avg Polling Trend			Projection		
2004	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Jan 	44.0	49.4	-5.4	46.4	53.6	-7.1
Feb	48.4	45.6	2.8	52.6	47.4	5.2
Mar	48.4	44.8	3.6	53.2	46.8	6.4
Apr	47.4	45.3	2.1	52.5	47.5	5.0
May	47.9	44.3	3.6	53.3	46.7	6.7
June	47.4	45.1	2.3	52.6	47.4	5.3
July	48.3	45.2	3.1	52.9	47.2	5.7
Aug	50.0	43.9	6.1	54.3	45.7	8.6
													
													
													
NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE FORECAST/WIN PROBABILITIES 													
													
48.60%	Average (mean) of  15 national polls 												
4.85%	Plus: Kerry 70% allocation of
undecided/other												
53.45%	Equals: Projected Kerry vote												
													
97.95%	Kerry probability of winning a pop. vote
majority												
													
______				Kerry%	Kerry% undecided/other 								
______	Date	Kerry	Bush	2-party	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%				
													
TIME	807	51	43	54.3	54.0	54.6	55.2	55.8	56.4				
FOX	804	46	43	51.7	51.5	52.6	53.7	54.8	55.9				
CNN/GAL	801	48	48	50.0	50.0	50.4	50.8	51.2	51.6
LAT	721	48	46	51.1	51.0	51.6	52.2	52.8	53.4
PEW	718	46	44	51.1	51.0	52.0	53.0	54.0	55.0
									
IBD	806	49	43	53.3	53.0	53.8	54.6	55.4	56.2
CBS	730	49	43	53.3	53.0	53.8	54.6	55.4	56.2
DEMC	805	52	45	53.6	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7
ABC/WP	802	52	45	53.6	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7
NWK	730	52	44	54.2	54.0	54.4	54.8	55.2	55.6
									
ZOGBY	729	48	43	52.7	52.5	53.4	54.3	55.2	56.1
AP	806	48	45	51.6	51.5	52.2	52.9	53.6	54.3
NBC/WSJ	721	45	47	48.9	49.0	49.8	50.6	51.4	52.2
ARG	801	49	45	52.1	52.0	52.6	53.2	53.8	54.4
QPAC	722	46	43	51.7	51.5	52.6	53.7	54.8	55.9
									
Mean	______	48.6	44.5	52.2	52.1	52.8	53.5	54.1	54.8	
ProbWin	______	______	______	90.6	88.9	94.9	97.9	99.3	99.8	
MoE	3.31									
Std	1.69									
										
										
95% Confidence Interval										
Max	______	51.9	47.8	55.5	55.4	56.1	56.8	57.5	58.2	
Min	______	45.3	41.2	48.9	48.8	49.4	50.1	50.8	51.5	
x	______	47.8	47.8	50.0	50.0	50.0	50.0	50.0	50.0	
Prob>x	______	68.6	2.5	90.6	88.9	94.9	97.9	99.3	99.8	
										
99% Confidence Interval										
Max	______	53.0	48.8	56.6						
Min	______	44.2	40.1	47.9						
x	______	48.8	48.8	50.0						
Prob>x	______	44.6	0.5	90.6					
									
									
									
95% Confidence Limits:									
Max = Mean + 1.96 * StdP									
Min = Mean - 1.96 * StdP									
									
99% Confidence Limits:									
Max = Mean + 2.58 * StdP									
Min = Mean - 2.58 * StdP									
									
									
									
									
									
								
								
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY								

Kerry National and State Vote Projections								
State vote%: Latest state poll plus assumed share of
undecided/other voters.								
National vote%:Weighted sum of projected % state
votes.								
Probability of a state win is based on projected %
vote.								


Most Likely Case								
Assume 70% of undecided/other voters for Kerry								
Win	Prob.	Pct	EV					
Kerry	98.0%	53.0%	330					
Bush	2.0%	47.0%	208					

Historical Vote %, Kerry Projection and Win Probability
													
Dem Hist. is Democratic share of 2-party vote in last three
presidential elections.													
													
______	Dem	Kerry	Kerry	EV (election trials 1-10 of 1000)
									
______	Hist.	Proj.	Prob.	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
State	52.6%	53.0%	98.0%	347	307	361	329	339	329	352	360	298	334
													
AL	44.8	41.0	0.0										
AK	37.6	40.7	0.0										
AZ	48.8	49.9	49.0	10		10					10		
AR	55.2	50.2	52.0	6		6		6	6	6	6	6	6
CA	57.4	57.3	96.6	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55
													
CO	48.8	49.3	43.1	9					9	9			
CT	57.7	62.6	99.9	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
DE	56.8	57.1	96.2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	
DC	90.3	89.5	100.0	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
FL	50.7	54.9	89.0		27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27
													
GA	47.6	45.9	15.3								15		
HI	59.0	60.9	99.7	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
ID	35.7	39.0	0.3										
IL	57.9	58.9	98.7	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
IN	44.8	45.9	15.3			11	11					11	11
													
IA	51.8	52.2	70.9	7		7	7	7		7	7		
KS	42.4	41.6	1.8										
KY	46.7	46.2	17.1				8				8		
LA	49.2	44.4	8.1				9						
ME	57.1	52.3	71.7	4	4		4	4			4	4	4
													
MD	57.8	58.6	98.4	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
MA	65.3	65.8	100.0	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
MI	54.7	56.9	95.8	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
MN	55.7	52.6	74.2	10		10	10	10	10	10	10	10	
MS	44.3	36.3	0.0										
													
MO	52.5	51.1	60.8		11	11	11	11	11	11			
MT	44.9	42.8	3.6										
NE	37.5	36.5	0.0										
NV	49.9	51.3	62.7	5		5		5		5	5	5	5
NH	51.7	55.3	90.7	4	4	4	4	4	4		4	4	4
													
NJ	56.5	62.8	99.9	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
NM	53.0	54.9	89.0	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
NY	62.6	65.0	100.0	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
NC	46.6	47.5	26.6	15	15			15		15			15
ND	40.8	37.2	0.1										
													
OH	50.8	48.9	39.2	20		20			20	20	20		
OK	42.8	39.2	0.3										
OR	53.6	52.8	75.8	7					7	7	7	7	7
PA	54.2	55.2	90.3	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21		21
RI	65.6	67.2	100.0	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
													
SC	44.4	47.5	26.6										8
SD	44.5	44.8	9.7		3				3				
TN	50.5	50.2	52.0		11		11	11				11	
TX	44.3	42.6	3.2										
UT	33.6	29.7	0.0										
													
VT	59.4	60.1	99.4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
VA	47.3	49.9	49.0	13		13		13		13		13	13
WA	55.9	55.2	90.3	11	11	11	11		11	11	11		11
WV	54.0	53.6	81.6	5		5	5	5			5		5
WI	52.7	51.9	68.3	10	10	10		10	10		10	10	10
WY	38.3	30.8	0.0										
													
Avg	52.6%	53.0%	98.0%	347	307	361	329	339	329	352	360	298	334

[ClintonTyree]

1. I appreciate you posting these TIA.................

but we have to act like we're seriously behind. If we start to believe these polls we're apt to become complacent. We cannot afford that, not with what is at stake here.

[TruthIsAll]

2. So act like we are behind. But I will continue to post the truth.

tia

[TryingToWarnYou]

3. ...sigh...thats not what he is saying.

Complacency is a killer.

[TruthIsAll]

6. Who is liable to become complacent? Kerry, Edwards, the Dems?

Why must this caveat to beware becoming complacent be constantly mentioned? No one is as far as I can tell.

I am surely not being complacent by posting this analysis every day so that interested parties can see where the race stands and hopefully take action accordingly.

For instance, where should Kerry concentrate his efforts? What states give the best electoral bang for the buck and where will his campaigning produce optimal results? My analysis helps in that regard.

Forgive the cliches, but: Forewarned is forearmed. Knowledge is power. That's why the media wants to keep us all ignorant of the real facts in this election.

[Jack Rabbit]

4. I want to emphasize

I want to emphasize that your analysis can only show that Kerry has a 98% probability of winning if the election were held today. As we know, it's being held November 2.

This is encouraging, but we have to work to keep it up.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. The Seminal Poster Has Been Told That Ad Nauseum...

You could have predicted a President Dukakis on August 9,1988 using that model....

[TruthIsAll]

7. That Dukakis 17-point lead was a One Poll fluke. I believe it was Gallup.

It has become an Urban legend.

I know, if the election were held today, blah, blah , blah..
We must not take anything for granted, blah, blah, blah..
We must fight like we are behind, blah, blah, blah..
We must not get too complacent, blah, blah, blah...

Jeez, enough of these cliches already! If you don't appreciate my analysis, don't pay attention to it.

This "Seminal Poster", whatever the hell that means, will not pay any attention to ONE bogus poll. That Dukakis lead was pure bogus polling fiction. VP Bush was the effective incumbent and he had a 10 -point lead right after the convention.

Kerry has been CONSISTENTLY in the lead by 3% since February and is just now opening clear daylight of 6% between him and Bush. And that's in 15 national and all state polls.

I suggest you read this:
http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html