Nagourney: A Series of Unfortunate Events (Clinton Campaign)

[bicentennial_baby]

WASHINGTON — When it comes time to recount the story of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s descent from inevitable nominee to defeat at the hands of Senator Barack Obama — assuming that is how this ends up — there is no shortage of mistakes by the Clinton campaign to put on the what-went-wrong list.

But without in any way discounting the travails of the Clinton organization, there have also been a series of external events in this Democratic nominating fight — events largely beyond the control of Mrs. Clinton’s campaign — that, had they gone differently, might just have resulted in a different outcome. Politics is often as much about luck as it is about skill; the Clinton campaign arguably ran short on both this year.

Here, in no particular order, are some of the factors and developments that undercut her candidacy, some self-inflicted, others inflicted upon her.

The Timing of the Edwards Endorsement

Senator John Edwards, after weeks of holding back, decided to endorse Mr. Obama on the Wednesday after Mrs. Clinton enjoyed a rare bit of good news, a 41-point defeat of Mr. Obama in West Virginia. Mr. Edwards’ decision to move that day — and in prime time, no less — took the wind out of the Clinton campaign’s sails, depriving it of what seemed to be at least a chance to get back in the hunt.

Mrs. Clinton, on something of a victory lap, had taped an interview with Charlie Gibson to be aired on The World News Tonight on ABC that evening. Instead, for the East Coast feed of the program — the most-watched feed, the one broadcast in Washington, D.C. — ABC went live to Mr. Edwards endorsing Mr. Obama in Michigan. And the Clinton interview? Relegated to the late feeds and the ABC Web site.

Was there a kick-the-wounded-puppy feeling to all this? Well, yes. But this is politics, after all. And it certainly appeared to be successful: The time just after the West Virginia victory might have been the last window Mrs. Clinton had to get superdelegates to hear her case that Mr. Obama is a flawed general-election candidate.

Michigan and Florida

The importance of these two states being relegated to the sidelines — because they defied the Democratic Party and held their primaries earlier than party rules allowed — can not be overstated.

For Mrs. Clinton, the best of all worlds would have been for the Democratic National Committee to do what the Republican National Committee did to Florida and Michigan for breaking the rules: cut the delegations in half, but still permit the primaries to go on. That outcome — assuming she won in Michigan and Florida, which seems a pretty good bet — might have given Mrs. Clinton a burst of momentum going into the “Super Tuesday” primaries of Feb. 5, and possibly allowed her to emerge that day with a significant lead in delegates, not to mention the popular vote; with a line-up of big state victories; and perhaps with enough momentum to withstand the 11-state winning streak that Mr. Obama reeled off after Feb. 5.

More: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/20/us/politics/20nagourney.html?_r=1&oref=slogin