John Kerry: What Kind of President Will He Be?

[liberalpragmatist]

My own take is that he'll go down in history as a very good president. Maybe not great, but very good. Quite possibly better than Clinton.

He'll certainly be more liberal than Clinton, especially in social and cultural issues, although let's be realistic, it won't be a progressive utopia. I don't expect that at the end of a Kerry tenure we'll have a universal single-payer health care system or that we'll have erased the education gap. But I expect tens of millions of more people will have health care than now, I expect that hundreds of thousands of more lower-income students will be graduating high school and college, I expect the average incomes of the working classes to be significantly higher and in general I expect that there will be a stable safety net that can be built on over the course of the years.

The Supreme Court will be far more liberal, with O'Conner, Rehnquist, and Stevens having retired by the end of a two-term presidency. On social and cultural issues, backed by a liberal-leaning SC, the employment non-descrimination act will be passed, along with a housing non-descrimination act against gays and lesbians. Gays and lesbians in Civil Unions of Gay Marriages will receive federal marriage benefits if in a state that has a civil-union/gay marriage arrangement. I expect that in the next 8 years, Massachusetts, California, New York, Vermont, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Washington, Hawaii, and DC will allow gay marriage.*

I expect that, despite his pro-Israel lean, by the end of an 8-year Kerry term, there will be a Palestinian state and I expect Iran to have made a peaceful democratic transition. The US will be far more respected in the world. Iraq will only be stable, not a shining beacon, and I expect Kerry will stay for about 1 or 2 years, then pull out when there is *adequate* stability.

I also expect the budget deficit to be brought WAY down, if not completely gone.

Of course, I don't know if he'll be a two-termer. The next four years are going to be HELL for any President. He may well lose in '08 and have approval ratings in the 30s or 40s, but ultimately be judged well by history. However, if he can be reelected in '08, I think he'll leave office with approval ratings at Clinton-like levels.

(*) Added on EDIT.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. My 8 Ball Says Time Will Tell

NT

[liberalpragmatist]

2. I know

I'm just speculating and asking others what THEY think. Not that any of us can be totally right or even close. It's hard to tell how history unfolds - there are usually plenty of surprises along the way.

[Nightjock]

3. Thanks, Good read. You have a well thought out prediction

but how this? We help get Kerry elected before we take apart the first 4 years and his re-election chances?

How about a prediction for this November?

[liberalpragmatist]

5. Well, look at this as a WOULD-BE scenario

There's no guarantee Kerry's even going to win, but I think it's a relevant question to ask IF he wins, what kind of president will he be?

However, I do think Kerry will win. It'll be hard-fought, but I think in the end, with a 56% turnout, he'll carry the race 53-46 and with over 300 electoral votes.

Senate goes Democratic: Illinois (+1), Colorado (+1), Alaska (+1), Oklahoma (+1), Florida - hold, South Carolina - hold, North Carolina - hold, Louisiana - hold, Georgia (*-1*) - a *loss*

End result: Senate - Democrats:Republicans, 52:48.

Republicans hold the House, but by a narrow margin. A difference of, say, 8 seats.

[Nightjock]

8. You're right.

I have fantasized about "President Kerry."
I see him as a great President and I even dream about most of our troops being home in one year with UN troops in Iraq.
For that alone he should get re elected.
What do you see happening in Iraq?

[liberalpragmatist]

11. I'm not too optimistic about Iraq

I think Kerry may have to increase troop levels in the short-term and I think he will make a sincere and hard-fought effort to enlist more international support. However, I don't think he'll get too much - just some token support. As a result, I think he'll have to re-focus the goal towards a "stable Iraq," not a Democratic one, and just pray that the UN and the Iraqis can themselves build a democracy. He'll have to work over the course of probably a year to make Iraq more stable, then pull troops out, although perhaps keeping a minimum presence and keeping US troops stationed in bases in Qatar and possibly Turkey.

It's possible that he, together with the UN, will declare "minimum parameters" - demand Iraq to be stable and withdraw nearly all the troops but promise (with UN backing) an international response in the event of genocide, civil war, or anarchy, then simply letting the Iraqis govern themselves without US help as long as they can maintain those parameters. I know this paragraph is vague, but I've read this detailed somewhere - I can't remember where.

So basically, I think Iraq MAY be better than it was under Saddam, with hopefully democratic rule and peace for the Kurds and some stability elsewhere, but I'm not TOO optimistic. I think it'll be a mess, and I think it may have to become a loose union of the Kurdish north, the Sunni and mixed population center, and the Shiite south, with each one basically having its own social policy and political system bound in a loose union in which oil revenues and other resources are shared under a UN-brokered and UN/US-enforced agreement - basically a long-term interim agreement.

Basically, it's a house of cards. I don't think it'll become Yugoslavia on the Indus and I don't think Kerry will let it become Vietnam. We'll pretty much pull out, but it's not going to become a Democratic utopia. It'll still hurt US prestige in the world overall and result in a loss of respect overseas and Republican slurs against Kerry that he has "abandoned" Iraq.

[Massacure]

4. It really depends.

If we don't take the House and the Senate, Kerry will get some snags.

[DaveFL99]

6. Incredible

It'll be like Kennedy would have been if he hadn't died.

You wait, It'll be like Clinton without the the bimbos.

[Jacobin]

7. No bimbos, just IraqNam.........

The cluster fuck of the millennium.

[cheezus]

9. Progressive, turning the country back towards populism

Edwards will be less corporate, more populist than Kerry (he talks about poverty, for crying out loud!). Eventually we'll have a Wellstone or a Kucinich, and the country will swing back in the Limbaugh direction.'

But over the march of time, we progress towards being a more and more liberal country

[DieboldMustDie]

10. Possibly the greatest in my lifetime...

but then I wasn't around for FDR. :shrug:

[eridani]

12. That will depend on his constituents

If we push hard enough, we might make him a great president.