Federal Review Composite: Kerry 301, Bush 237 (8-10-04)

[phillybri]

http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm

KERRY MAINTAINS LEAD
Bush 46.9% – 237 EV | Kerry 50.5% – 301 EV
EV without Toss Up states (under 2% margin): Bush 211| Kerry 257| Toss 70
August 10, 2004

Kerry gets a bounce in state polling, increasing his lead in the Electoral College to his highest mark yet in the Composite Poll and Electoral Vote Analysis.

But remember, Bush has yet to have his convention, and the polls are still very close nationally and in many states. One bit of news, one big day and Kerry could increase his lead or Bush could jump ahead. But right now, the pressure ahead of the RNC is on the Bush Campaign.

This Week's Polls
FoxNews / Opinion Dynamics (Bush 43 | Kerry 47)
AP / Ipsos (Bush 45 | Kerry 48)
Investor’s Business Daily (Bush 42 | Kerry 45)
Time (Bush 44 | Kerry 48)
Rasmussen Week Average (Bush 46.4 | Kerry 47.2)
Iowa Electronic Vote Share Market (Bush 50.4 | Kerry 48.8)


Last Week's Polls
American Research Group (Bush 45 | Kerry 49)
CBS News/NY Times (Bush 43 | Kerry 48)
CNN/USA Today/Gallup (Bush 52 | Kerry 47)
Zogby (Bush 41 | Kerry 46)
ABC News/Wash. Post (Bush 47 | Kerry 49)
Newsweek (Bush 42 | Kerry 49)
Rasmussen Week Average (Bush 45.4 | Kerry 47.7)
Iowa Electronic Vote Share Market (Bush 50.9 | 49.7)


Bush State Gains
None


Kerry State Gains
Nevada


Toss Up States (Slight Lead of <2%)
Arkansas (Bush)
Florida (Kerry)
Iowa (Kerry)
Nevada (Kerry)
Ohio (Bush)
West Virginia (Kerry)

[Jack Rabbit]

1. Very encouraging news from a Bush-supporting site

The news is probably better.

From what I've seen here, Pennsylvania and New Jersey should each be deep red. Isn't Missouri leaning to Kerry now?

Keep up the good work. We'll oust the junta in November.

[whistle]

2. What will it take to accomplish a trouncing of George W Bush...

...by John Kerry? 350 to 188? 400 to 138? The * needs a good trouncing, but quite honestly if Kerry gets 270 and Bush gets 268, I'll be happy. I like the direction that this is heading.

[TruthIsAll]

3. Nice! The Kerry numbers are slightly lower than mine, if

you consider that I allocate 70% of undecided/others to Kerry.

The slight difference is reflected in the EV deviation from my model; I have Kerry at 330.

But we are close. It will be interesting to see how much we will differ by as time goes on.

[phillybri]

4. Kick

:kick: