Reminder of two rules of thumb in a re-election of an incumbent...

[Jack from Charlotte]

1. They are much more an APPROVAL/DISAPPROVAL of the incumbent than they are about the challenger. That is, if the voters aren't against the job Bush is doing..... Kerry won't win. It's when voters decide Bush is doing poorly that they turn to the alternative. And then the alternative must be viable. So watch Bush's approval ratings more than anything else.

Also, it means the challenger should be somewhat conservative in his campaign, I'd think.

2. These elections are usually not close. When was the last time a re-election of an incumbent was close? By less than 6 points? Clinton beat Dole by about 6 or more. Reagan beat Mondale by a ton. Reagan beat Carter by about 5 or so. Carter v Ford was close, I think and Nixon beat McGovern easily.

So when the Moron/whores are on TV saying this election is going to be close..... history disagrees.

[emulatorloo]

1. Blue Skies, Incumbent Elected, Cloudy Skies, Challenger Elected

Chris Matthews did a similar historical analysis a few weeks ago on Chris Matthews Show, also saying it ain't gonna be close.

Also said if economy is good, and no long drawn out war (blue skies), incumbent gets re-elected

If economy bad, quagmirish war (cloudy skies), challenger elected.