Castro came to power 45 years ago, so the first generation exiles who are the staunchest anti-Castro are getting on in years. I doubt any of them would leave the GOP camp anyway. So I don't think it's valid to think ANYTHING would sway them to Kerry.
But the second and third generations are now voting age, they are more American than Cuban -- maybe? -- and are less tied to Cuba than they are to Miami or wherever. They might be "swing" voters.
There was a recent news item In the Miami New Times that suggested new restrictions on travel to Cuba for relatives, restrictions on cash sent to Cuba, and restrictions on what can be taken on visits to Cuba may have backfired. In a way, it was that article that got me to thinking about this.
http://www.miaminewtimes.com/issues/2004-07-29/feature.html<snip>
In the end, President Bush cracked down hard on family visits. (See sidebar page 26.) Under the old rules, people could travel to Cuba once a year to visit close relatives, the definition of which included second cousins. They did not need to apply for permission from the U.S. government. To go more than once a year, they needed to obtain a special license from the Treasury Department, which was routinely granted. There was no limit on the length of their stay. Now people can travel to Cuba to visit only members of their immediate family (children, mothers, fathers, siblings, grandparents, and spouses). They can make such trips only once every three years, stay no more than fourteen days, and spend no more than $50 per day. In addition, they must receive written permission from the Treasury Department.
The president also slammed Cuban Americans who send cash remittances. Previously people could wire $300 every three months to any household in Cuba (except select government officials and members of the Cuban Communist Party). Now only remittances to immediate family members are allowed. Travelers used to be able to take up to ten $300 remittances per visit and hand them out; now they can take just one.
And he narrowed the U.S. Commerce Department's already short list of items that can be included in Cuba-bound gift parcels and luggage. The new rule removed "seeds, clothing, personal hygiene items, veterinary medicines and supplies, fishing equipment, and soap-making equipment." The only things left on the list are food, medicine, medical supplies, receive-only AM/FM or shortwave radios, and batteries for the radios.
<end snip>
<snip>
Newer arrivals have more moderate views on Cuba but vote in far fewer numbers than pre-1980 arrivals, who have more extreme views and vote in greater numbers. "So to mollify the core constituency of the Florida Republican Party, the hardline Cuban Americans, the administration has been willing to sacrifice moderate Cuban Americans," Leogrande observes.
And if the president has infuriated them in the process, it's just not important. "The people who are angry about the restrictions are those who are traditionally least likely to vote," says FIU's Dario Moreno. "Those who are happy with the new policy are those who are more likely to vote.
What the mistake could have been is if the restrictions mobilize people that otherwise wouldn't have bothered to vote." (my emphasis added)
So my thought was, if Kerry advocated a more "normal" relationship with Cuba that would take exile families into consideration, could he energize a bloc of moderate non-voters to vote? The core exile group will NEVER vote Dem anyway, so he's not risking anything there, but is there the chance to pick up a new bloc?
Oh, well, it was just a thought.
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