Ark. Dem-Gaz: Ads for Kerry Dry Up in Ark. ("Bush prevailing"?)

[DeepModem Mom]

Ads for Kerry dry up in Arkansas

Lack of spending suggests tossup status fading; some say Bush prevailing

BY PAUL BARTON ARKANSAS DEMOCRAT-GAZETTE

WASHINGTON — Arkansas is becoming a bystander in the presidential race when it comes to the hundreds of millions of dollars both campaigns are pumping into television ad wars. As a consequence, the state may join major media markets such as New York, Washington and Los Angeles, where residents are missing most of the major advertisements of the presidential campaigns.

Instead of those big markets, both President Bush and Democratic nominee John Kerry are concentrating their dollars on battleground states that could go either way.

***

For most of this year, Arkansas had been regarded as a battleground, since Bush won the state by just 5 percent in 2000. But the state is losing its battleground status, many political analysts and campaign advertising experts say.

They contend that the private polling of both campaigns probably now places Arkansas solidly in the Bush column.

Since June, neither Kerry’s campaign nor any of the independent Democratic groups campaigning on his behalf nationwide has advertised in Arkansas, reports the Campaign Media Analysis Group, an Arlington, Va., organization that tracks presidential advertising.

http://epaper.ardemgaz.com/Repository/getFiles.asp?Style=OliveXLib:ArticleToMail&Type=text/html&Path=ArDemocrat/2004/08/11&ID=Ar00101


Opinions, Arkansas DUers?

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. I'm from Newton County AR

and I've not been polled. I have no idea what kind of Kool Aid these folks are drinking, but the Dem-Gazette is a right wing hack newspaper, and I don't really trust what it says. If this had come from the Arkansas Times, a liberal newspaper covering northwest Arkansas, I'd be more likely to believe it.

If Bush thinks he's got Arkansas wrapped up, I say well and good, because I have a feeling he's in for a terrific shock. There's a group in my county made of independents, liberals, and Republicans that has vowed to get out the vote and make sure Bush is NOT re-elected. I work in Boone County, one of the most conservative counties in the state, and I've seen exactly two cars with Bush bumper stickers. Two. The folks I talk to are down on Bush. 100% of the company I work for is voting Kerry, including the boss, who is a fundamentalist. The fact that Kerry is a hunter and a veteran is resonating with folks, especially those who have family members in the Guard-the local unit was one that went in without body armor, and they know who to blame.

Arkansas, imho, could easily turn blue this November. Don't pay attention to the Dem-Gazette, as its name belies its true persuasion.

[DeepModem Mom]

3. Thanks for that very encouraging post!

I'm a native of Arkansas, but haven't lived there for many years. I had a feeling, however, that Arkansas was at least a possibility for Kerry. I know the Democrat-Gazette is despicable on its editorial page, but I'd been encouraged by their very full, and pretty positive, coverage of the Clark campaign. I didn't know whether to give credence to this article or not.

[dbt]

5. Note the byline, Mom: Paul Barton

That's who the Democrat (True Arkies will NEVER use "Gazette" in reference to this fishwrap) calls on when they want a truly partisan piece.

Have I mentioned yet that the Democrat is a vicious, yellow, right-wing, anti-Clinton, anti-Democratic Party RAG that stands FOR nothing? It is the Paper of Choice for AGINNERS.

:evilgrin:
dbt

PS: Zogby calls Arkansas for Kerry at this point, something that probably chaps (editor) Paul Greenberg's pompous ass to no end!

[DeepModem Mom]

6. Thanks -- wasn't familiar with Paul Barton...

and I think Zogby's the best of the pollsters.

I am familiar with Paul Greenberg's strange journalistic journey, from Pulitzer to perdition, and with the tragic loss of the late, great Arkansas Gazette.

[Cha]

17. Your post makes me feel real good..thanks for

all the hard work from you and your friends..it's States like your's that is going to do the trick.

I'm from New York and we will go Kerry..but we need Arkansas,Ohio, West Virginia, Florida, Tennessee, and North Carolina!

I know..I'm not asking for much.

[fujiyama]

2. Most of the public polls

I've seen have shown the state to be extremely close - all within the margin of error showing a lead of only 1-2 pts for Bush.

I don't know what internal polls are saying, but I don't think the campaign should give up less electoral rich states like AR and focus completely on one or two states (OH and FL). The Gore campaign did that with FL and it was arguably a big mistake. Granted, Nader ultimately forced him to campaign in certain states which shouldn't have been so close (like OR, MN, WI, and IA).

Also this article says that Bush spent around a million dollars, and a million dollars spent in AR is better than a million spent in states dems have to carry to win like MI or PA.

I think AR will be closer than last time, even if Bush does eek out a victory. The democratic senator looks like she's going to win big as well. I see no reason why Kerry and Edwards can't carry the state.

[DeepModem Mom]

4. The public polls, then, would indicate still at least a toss-up --

and good point about Bush, at the least, having to spend $$$ in the state.

[monarch]

7. Kerry advertising plan

I thought that I read that Kerry was suspending advertising everywhere to conserve money until after the Republican convention. Is this idiot drawing his conclusions about Arkansas merely from the fact that he is not seeing advertising there.

[Zynx]

8. Apparently he is.

[Sparkly]

9. I think that's right -- just DNC and MoveOn ads right now

as I understand it anyway.

[against all enemies]

10. Could Clinton Help? And would he?

[dbt]

13. Yes and yes.

The lesson of Gore's distancing from the Big Dog has sunk in quite well on Kerry's handlers.

Watch Clinton GO!

:bounce:
dbt

[Cha]

18. And it "sunk in" on Clinton, too. I heard Bill on charley rose

say that he didn't realize how the nra had gone into Arkansas and had done all this advertising until it was too late.

[WI_DEM]

14. I'm not sure

I have a friend who lives in Arkansas and says that Clinton is a mixed legacy. They are proud one of their own became president but they resent the fact that he now lives in NY--even though his library will be in Ark.

[dbt]

15. Typical Arkie ambivalence.

You'll find we are "mixed" about most things. Or not.

:evilgrin:
dbt

[lottie244]

11. Save your money Kerry, wait for the vote. Nothing Bush can say or do

can change the events surrounding him. But please, Kerry make this a clear choice and stop trying to out Bush Bush!@!

[PeaceProgProsp]

12. I just heard on local news that Kerry will cut back on adverts

in the run-up to the Republican convention, and then pour it on after the Republican convention.

[Bombtrack]

16. public polls don't support this. Internals maybe something different but..

Date  Polling Co. Type  MOE Republican Democrat   Margin 

4/08/04 AR St. U. Adults 5  % Bush 51% Kerry 43%  Bush +8 

4/14/04 SurveyUSA 565 RV 4.2% Bush 47% Kerry 45%  Bush +2 

5/02/04 Rasmussen 500 LV 4.5% Bush 45% Kerry 45%  Push 

5/31/04 Rasmussen LV     5  % Bush 48% Kerry 43%  Bush +5 

6/30/04 Rasmussen LV     5  % Bush 45% Kerry 46%  Kerry +1 

7/12/04 SurveyUSA 546 LV 4  % Bush 49% Kerry 47%  Bush +2 

7/12/04 SurveyUSA 546 LV 4  % Bush 49% Kerry 47%  Bush +2 

7/31/04 Rasmussen LV     4  % Bush 46% Kerry 47%  Push 

Zogby Interactive polls:

Date    Polling Co. Type MOE Republican Democrat    Margin 
5/24/04 Zogby Int.* LV 4.5% Bush 49.3% Kerry 44.5% Bush +4.8 

6/06/04 Zogby Int.* LV 3.7% Bush 51.2% Kerry 43.5% Bush +7.7

6/21/04 Zogby Int.* LV 4.4% Bush 44.7% Kerry 46.8% Kerry+2.1%

7/10/04 Zogby Int.* LV 4.4% Bush 46.7% Kerry 44.5% Bush +2.2%

7/23/04 Zogby Int.* LV 4.3% Bush 47.4% Kerry 44.6% Bush +2.8%

7/30/04 Zogby Int.* LV 4.4% Bush 47.9% Kerry 46.4% Bush +1.5%

[democratreformed]

19. I say bullshit!

I'm like the poster above. Trust me, The Dem-Gaz is definitely biased. It is definitely a conservative rag.

The person above said she(?) had seen two Bush/Cheney stickers. I have seen ONE here in White County. ONE. My county's Democrat club has seen a resurgence of "longtime Democrats who have not been active in a while" (from the newsletter) and lots of new memebers.

My brother, who is not really political said to me yesterday, "Bush is fixing to get his a** kicked". I couldn't help but laugh. I love to hear that from someone who is not "involved" = a "normal" citizen, if you will.

I think the fact that we have so many servicemen currently over in Iraq is going to help turn the tide in Kerry's favor too.

Maybe the lack of advertising signals a lack of need for it on KERRY'S part instead of Bush's.