http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.htmlNot only that he is in accord with the esteemed truthisall, but also that he provides some new answers to the crucial question asked on DU every now and then, but answered well so infrequently: WHO DO I GIVE MY MONEY TO NOW?
There are other answers, of course, but here is Princeton Sam's take:
"I originally did this calculation to help think about how to allocate my campaign contributions. I believe that one can make the biggest difference by donating at the margin, where probabilities for success are 20-80%. To read a discussion click here. Since trends are in Kerry's favor and the Senate is within reach, I recommend that Democrats give to the DSCC and to the Senate campaigns of Inez Tenenbaum (D-SC), Betty Castor (D-FL pre-primary), and Chris John (D-LA). Note: Since Tony Knowles (D-AK) is ahead in 8 of the last 9 polls, he currently fails my 20-80 test.
For those of you still wanting to reinforce the national election (see the bias analysis below), I recommend the voter registration and turnout organization America Coming Together. For the optimists there is the DCCC. "