OK. I'm Getting Jittery About the Election. Help Me Out.

[David Zephyr]

There's just so much at stake for all of us in November.

Teresa (God-love-her) Kerry summed it all saying that Bush's re-election would be "four more years of hell." It would be just that.

So, anybody here at the DU want to tell me why we should feel optimistic about November in spite of the following: Diebold, GOP controlled state legislatures that can send up their own "electors" constitutionally, a very evil Carl Rove, the swift-jerks and such.

I know all the reasons to worry.

Give me some reasons to hope. :shrug:

[movonne]

1. Kerry is going to win in a landside !!!!!

[IndianaGreen]

2. I agree, except for Florida

and that is because I have no faith whatsoever in the touch screen voting machines. I think Kerry has an excellent chance of carrying Ohio which means that Bush is toast!

BTW, my USWA friends in Northern Indiana are optimistic that Kerry will carry Indiana in the Fall. If they are right, this means that by 6 PM on election day we will know that Indiana would have gone Democratic for the first time since 1964 and that Bush will lose BIG TIME across the Midwest.

[David Zephyr]

19. Wow! My IndianaGreen Says It's Gonna Happen.

That's something! :hi:

[blm]

29. Heh. NOW it must be true. ;)

I always expected IG would be a solid against the Bush regime, especially due to the fact that IG sincerely "gets" Teresa and would be happy to vote for her as First Lady.

[David Zephyr]

30. I'd Like to Watch IG on Stage Debating George Bush!

Not even John McCain's sweetest hug would soothe him afterwards.

[Voltaire]

38. Oh man if Indiana goes Blue at 6:00 PM

I will be blind drunk by 6:15 on the south side of Indianapolis. Hell, I will be glad if they can keep it from going red until 7:30

[Voltaire]

41. They need to work scenarios where Florida's Electoral Votes are not needed

I would love to have FL as a moral victory and a thumb in Jeb's eye. But the campaign needs to stay away from "needing" Florida. Its a frigging cesspool of political corruption with a Jeb Bush smiley face on it.

[freetobegay]

15. Thats the spirit!

I'll keep that spirit also until proved otherwise!

[David Zephyr]

18. Say It Again.

Over and over.

[richmwill]

3. Hope this helps

Electoral College Projection

If this is what ends up happening on Election Night, then what do you have to worry about? :)

[wurzel]

7. Looks good to me. n/t

[clydefrand]

14. Oh, I do hope and pray that this will come to be. n/t

[Cha]

25. If we know this then the media knows it, too...which is why

they must be working extra hard to smear Kerry.

[AndyTiedye]

33. That Is Not Reassuring At All

We have lost ground in the past week. We are barely hanging on in
Oregon and Minnesota, which should be Democratic strongholds.

If the election were held today, Boosh would "win" again.

The Bush family owns Florida, of course, and there is great danger
that the Repubs will steal Maryland as well. It may be a blue state,
but the votes are being counted on Diebold machinez, and there
is certainly a rob-maryland.zip around somewhere. Maryland
would put Bush* over the top.

Fortunately, the election is not being held today, abd
http://www.truevotemd.org/ is trying to stop them from stealing
Maryland's votes. They still have a few appeals left.

[Tweed]

4. Apparently Kerry will win with a probability of 99.7777777777777794787693%

Whatever the hell that means. :eyes:

[reprehensor]

5. People are workin' hard, bro'!

If it'll make you feel better, and you can, give these guys some money, they are all working hard to mobilize voters in November!

www.ReDefeatbush.com

www.act4victory.org

and most recently...

MoveOnPAC is joining the fray! Got this email today!

Dear MoveOn member,
We’re going for it.

Last week, MoveOn PAC members gave over $2.1 million to launch Leave No Voter Behind: MoveOn PAC's Neighbor-to-Neighbor Victory Drive to turn out 440,000 additional votes for Kerry from 10,000 targeted neighborhoods. We're bowled over by this level of enthusiasm, but to make it work, we'll also need tens of thousands of volunteer leaders like you.

Just because you don't live in one of the 'swing' states doesn't mean you have to sit this election out. We're looking for 10,000 people to adopt a key battleground state voting district, or 'precinct'. These volunteers will partner with local residents in that precinct to contact a few hundred voters, educate them on the issues and the candidates, and turn them out to vote. The Goal: 40 or more additional votes for Kerry per precinct, enough to tip the balance in this close a race. Using new online tools plus coordinated road trips and phone calling, we will help you focus your energy where it matters the most.

Help us Leave No Voter Behind by adopting a precinct. For more info and to sign up, just click here:

http://www.moveonpac.org/precinctpartners/signup.html

We know that talking to people about the election might sound intimidating, but MoveOn PAC members who have tried it are almost always glad they did, and we'll train you ahead of time to make sure you're prepared.

Can we count you in? Sign up now to be a Precinct Partner:

http://www.moveonpac.org/precinctpartners/signup.html

Florida taught us in 2000 that just a handful of votes can decide a presidential election and the fate of a nation, and it may come down to a handful again this year. Through personal contact with voters as a part of Leave No Voter Behind, you can make that difference. Together we plan take our country back. This is our chance to make history--with your help.


Thanks for all that you do.

Sincerely,

--Adam Ruben, Field Director
MoveOn PAC
Wednesday, August 11th, 2004

PS: If you can’t commit to being a leader at this point, but want to support this important effort, please make a contribution to this program today at:
https://www.moveonpac.org/donate/leavenovoterbehind.html

PAID FOR BY MOVEON PAC www.moveonpac.org
Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.

[bobbieinok]

6. hope hard, work hard, pray hard........DON'T BE OVERCONFIDENT

We're fightin probable vote fraud and manipulation, BBV, and 24/7 RW blasts and lies about Kerry

DU was VERY SURE OF A WIN in 2002 ...... and look what happened.

[clydefrand]

8. You know I was going to write a couple of suggestions

but I can't think of a thing to give me hope either. I just want to crawl in hole and forget he exists. Maybe that's it! Just stop reading and listening to anything to do with politics. I have a couple of dear friends like that and they seem to be very happy. They don't vote or follow politics at all. And he was in Viet Nam!! We'll have to get a satisfying hobby/job.

[reprehensor]

9. Oh, and... Kerry is leading in Michigan!!

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-08-11-president-poll-mich_x.htm

[heidiho]

10. Republicans are abandoning him - most Repubs I know

aren't voting for him (or so they say). They really don't like him.

[sandnsea]

11. We're fighters, goddammit

No Retreat. NO Surrender.

Jesus Christ. You think fighting for what's right is easy? Think of the union fights, civil rights fights, vietnam war fights. We haven't even begun to go through what those folks went through.

Suck it up people. When you get concerned, get on the phone or put feet to the streets. Talking to people who are revved up and ready to vote will put everything back in perspective. Works every time.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

12. It's Karl with a KKK dammit

There is NO reason to relax. We need every vote we can get. Electoral votes aren't enough...it needs to be a huge popular vote to declare that Kerry has a mandate which is why I am not terribly happy with the way he responded about his IWR vote (yes, that's me, I said that)

[David Zephyr]

20. KKKarl.

These swiftjerks really put me in the dumps, NSMA. I sure hope the American people can see how jealous and wicked these men are.

It must be a huge popular vote. :hi:

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

13. David, we are three months out.

The Kerry/Edwards Campaign is not, repeat, IS NOT staffed by idiots, fools, incompetents and the brain-damaged. Trust me when I tell you that as I type this, things are being formulated to deal with all of this. Also, the polling is looking very, very good.

What I think is weighing on you and others is the media, who wants to keep this race close, to keep eyeballs glued. They don't want Kerry to stretch it out. That is not the kind of news that creates viewers. Hence, they will go on any story they perceive as being able to knock him back. The interesting thing is that, except for amongst the permanently disgruntled, it ain't working in any perceptable manner.

Have you happened to notice the spontaneous crowds that are appearing out there, in RED States and battleground states? Are you aware of the positive things that fact signifies?

Furthermore, you get a lot of your raw information here. Recently, we have beset and bedeviled by...ummm..."those with a divergent viewpoint". They are here spreading FUD: Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. Classic Internet tactics.

If you feel a fret coming on, get on the phone to your local campaign headquarters and work it off.

[sushi]

16. Go here

http://www.mumble.com.au/mackerras_US.htm
He could be wrong, but nice to read.

Both sides will do their best. I just think that if it's Kerry's destiny to become leader, he will. It's good for the whole world. I also believe that 99% of the world wants Kerry to win.

[unfrigginreal]

17. Don't see how Kerry loses this one

unless his campaign team suddenly become a bunch of incompetents and it's hard to imagine that seeing where Kerry came from in the primaries. He's running against the biggest "devil" ever in a Presidential election.

Since I'm seeing Kerry ads here in NC, I figure that we're in much better shape than the campaign or the press is letting on.

[cally]

21. "Never seen the Dem party like this"

I've heard that too many times. Most active folks say that they have never seen this unity, energy, and focus. What's better is that even in my small experience, I've seen so many folks tell me they are voting for the first time! This election is so important and folks who did not before are now active. I don't think we can take this for granted but I'm feeling very positive.

[graywarrior]

23. There's lots of us here in Florida who are going to kick ass

[Cha]

22. Kerry is going to pull this off. I can't really give you any

specifics ..it would be futile to say..trust me, but..we'll talk in November and I can say .."I told ya so!":)

I just know that I'm not jittery for that reason..only because of all the other races around the Country and how important for our future Democracy..they all are.

And even though I'm confident..I still am on the edge of my seat and will be until January 21,2005..when I go to Washington D.C. to see Kerry/Edwards inaugeration.

And, of course, then the work will never stop but only intensify..as the bushworts are on the outside lookin' in.

[blm]

24. As long as we keep the pressure on Diebold they won't be able to depend

on the BBV scenario.

Know this, DZ: Kerry is just getting started.

[Zynx]

26. Given historical trends, Bush is in deep shit.

However, we should take pride in that, but keep working even harder. We want to boot Bush out so decisively that the Neo-cons are banished for years to come.

[Arkana]

27. Don't kill me for this, Deaniacs

But Teresa Heinz is kinda like a female version of him (in that she's brutally honest on topics like this).

[David Zephyr]

32. I'm A Deaniac for Kerry.

And, frankly, it is Teresa that got my enthusiasm really going for John.

[Cha]

34. Why would we "kill you"?

I agree. And I've had to defend Teresa to other Dems who thinks she's too ..I can't think of the word but this one person meant that she should be quiet until after the election.
Whereas I don't believe in censoring People. I find her candor and intelligence, charming.


This all started because I was talking about pickles squawking out about stem cell research and mentioned that she and Teresa should debate..well..that's when I found out how this person felt. But I think these people are in the minority.

[tedoll78]

28. From how I see things, Kerry has several routes to 270.

As a main stipulation: he must win ALL of the Gore states. That gets him to 260EVs.

The first route is through Florida (27EVs). Recent polling looks really nice there, but many are skeptical of Diebold, Jeb, missing ballot boxes, hackers, voter purges, etc. Draw your own conclusions, but assume that we're still fighting like hell for it.

The second route is through Ohio (20EVs). Recent polling looks such that Kerry is tied-at-best in this state. Diebold will not be a factor in Ohio this year; I'm personally betting that this will come-down to whose get-out-the-vote operation is better.

The next route is through Missouri (11EVs), which for some weird/unknown reason surprises me. Kerry is actually tied here in most recent polling. Again, GOTV could determine the fate here.

The next route is one of my personal favorites: combine West Virginia (5EVs) and Nevada (5EVs). Both states show him about 4 or 5% ahead right now. Kerry is seen as less environmentally threatening in WV (compared to Gore), and more environmentally trustworthy in NV (compared to Bush). Kerry's reputation as an avid hunter will also help in WV, and changing demographics will help him in NV.

There's also a more obscure route: Colorado is having a ballot initiative on November 2nd; if it passes, Colorado would proportionally split its electoral votes among the major candidates by percentage won in the balloting. Bush would likely win the state for 5EVs, while Kerry would get the other 4EVs. Kerry would then have to find 6EVs from elsewhere to reach 270.

...

Now, several points to take comfort in:

Bush is having to defend territory that most would'nt have imagined. He's forced to have rallies in Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee.. while we have most of our blue states wrapped-up. Sure, Iowa and Wisconsin look shaky, but they're certainly in better shape than they were a few months ago. And Michigan and Pennsylvania are solidifying into our column for good.

Traditionally, 2/3 of undecided voters go with the challenging candidate. Given a 9% bloc of undecideds, that means that Kerry can be down in the polls by 3% and still end-up at a tie with Bush statistically. Also take note of this: most polls had Gore down 5 or 6% on the weekend before the 2000 election, and he ended-up winning popular-wise. If we're within that range again, we can win this thing.

This next one may be sad, but it's a hard, cold reality.. the 1000th GI death is coming. It may be in September, it may be in October - but it's coming. You can bet that the media are waiting for it, and that a field day will be had when it comes. And Bush's numbers can only move in one direction.

F9/11 is also coming to video in early October. It will serve two big purposes: one, it will keep our side charged-up. Two, it will possibly bring-in a number of new voters. Especially if we do a great job of spreading it around.

Next, Bush's convention bounce will be less than Kerry's. It's painfully obvious that his meme will be "terror.. fear.. 9/11.. terror.." It's also nice to recall that he attempted that exact same style of fearmongering during his SOTU address earlier this year - resulting in NO bounce. It's obvious that this pony's one trick has be neutered of 99% of its power.

Next: the debates will not be rigged this time. The media cannot play the "he's inexperienced, so let's give him a pass" card this time. With any luck, Kerry will effectively dissect the most embarrassing portions of the Bush record for all voters to see.

And finally: our side really excited about this race. A recent poll has the excitement level on our side to be twice that of 2000's. Our turnout efforts are unprecedented in magnitude, whereas the GOP has pretty much maximized its turnout efforts over the last decade. If turnout on our side goes up even a mere 5%, we win much more easily in the electoral college than one might think.

...

I'm not being pollyanna-ish. I'm just trying to give you hope. It won't happen without each one of us screaming like hell, writing to newspapers, registering new voters, sparing some cash, displaying those bumperstickers, speaking-up when ignorance rears its ugly head, and basically telling the truth.

[Cha]

35. I enjoyed reading your post..but

when you say this..
"This next one may be sad, but it's a hard, cold reality.. the 1000th GI death is coming. It may be in September, it may be in October - but it's coming. You can bet that the media are waiting for it, and that a field day will be had when it comes. And Bush's numbers can only move in one direction."

Why do you think the media will advertise what is going on with the Soldier death count when they seemed to have been keeping it under the radar the whole time?

[Big Al from WI]

36. Now that DZ feels better,

I think we should play devil's advocate for the moment. You said, Also take note of this: most polls had Gore down 5 or 6% on the weekend before the 2000 election, and he ended-up winning popular-wise. If we're within that range again, we can win this thing. That means that if we're UP by 5 or 6% the weekend before, that's not a sure thing for us either, and we still have to make sure that we do all we can.

All right, no more devil's advocate. Let's go back to the good. Next: the debates will not be rigged this time. The media cannot play the "he's inexperienced, so let's give him a pass" card this time. With any luck, Kerry will effectively dissect the most embarrassing portions of the Bush record for all voters to see. Kerry was one of the best in the history of the Yale debate team. I bet Bush didn't even know it existed. Edwards should also do better than Cheney. Whatever he loses on foreign policy, he will MORE than make up for on domestic policy. In fact, if he can use his attorney/rhetoric skills to make Cheney look like a nutcase on foreign policy, then he could really dominate.

[David Zephyr]

31. Thanks Everyone!

Thanks for helping me get over some serious dumps.

The SwiftBoatJerks really shows that no matter how awful we may think that GW Bush and crowd are, there will still sink lower.

The crowds that Kerry is drawing (they are huge) and that the media under reports is very encouraging.

Again, thanks.

[Voltaire]

40. I can see getting down in the dumps

I get through it by remembering that the vermin on the other side are DESPERATE and that there is NOTHING that they will not say or do. We should explain and defend ourselves where we must, but in most cases we can simply let their hypocrasy and stupidity speak for itself. Bush can only win it two ways. By cheating. And by us sitting on our asses. Lets be sure not to sit on our asses until the world is rid of Bush's shadow.

[Aunt Anti-bush]

37. To quote Twisted Sister...

"We're not gonna take it."

I seriously believe in my heart that if * tries to steal another election, the nation would rise up and protest to the high Heavens. No one will sit idly by and watch that happen again. Phone lines would be tied up for weeks and the postal service would be over-run with people writing letters to their representatives in protest. Streets would fill up with people holding anti-shrub signs. I don't think he'd have a chance in hell at doing it to us again.

Bring it on, George, Bring it on...

[Lefty Pragmatist]

39. You were looking for reassurance.

So here's some reassurance:

(1) Undecideds in close elections do indeed tend to break in favor of the challenger. Kerry will carry between 55-60% of undecideds (the projections of 70%+ are just wishful thinking). It's just a question of how big a pool that is. The threat then is from...

(2) Converts to Bush, and there just aren't many of them. As in, none. I don't see any of the 2000 Dem states switching. In the swing states, we have an excellent chance of taking OH if we force it on the union vote, and okay chances in MO, NV, FL, and NH. I doubt anything else swaps (I have no faith in WV), but any two from that column are enough for a win. Obviously, FL alone is enough.

(3) Dirty tricks is always a part of politics (and it's an equal opportunity employer of political hacks of both parties), but there is a very high sensitivity to monkey business in the press. And...

(4) Likewise, reports of the press being anti-Kerry are exaggerated (the more technical term is: hysterical ranting). We have the same media split we've always had: the polished big city papers (NYT, BG, WP) are very liberal, the 'bloids and the chains that permeate small towns are very conservative. The networks split, with Fox right, CNN left, and the rest in the middle. The big disadvantage is the radio, where the right controls everything except Moscow-on-the-Potomac NPR, but the internet is handily leftist. So the media is a wash. If the right had a small corporate media advantage coming in, F9/11 neutralized it.

(5) The economy is still pretty sucky. This is very bad news for the country but worse news for Bush, especially since people do not go for radical change during recessions, and it's Bush who is more radical on economic issues. Kerry really isn't proposing anything different than 4 more years of Clinton, and most people -- even conservative mods and paleocons -- are okay with that. Finally,

(6) Our candidate is not a complete bozo. And yes, that's a shout out to Gore, Dukakis, Mondale, and McGovern, who between them didn't generate enough common sense wattage to light up a small room. Kerry is a somewhat dull but comforting middle of the road DLCer with a little more liberal chutzpah in his voting record. Combine that with Edwards to throw red meat to the Kool Aid Krowd, and we've got a winning ticket. We really do. I'm very, very cautious, but everything I see today points to a close win.

[juajen]

42. I know, I get twinges myself. However,

we have to keep on the attack and do everything we can do point to the truth. We won't always be believed, but we owe it to ourselves and country to keep trying every minute of the day that we are able. Gather votes and keep telling the truth. We are America. I hope to God we can save her from the evil clutches of the neo-cons.

[osaMABUSh]

43. About that Colorado initiative to split EVs

Colorado is having a ballot initiative on November 2nd; if it passes, Colorado would proportionally split its electoral votes among the major candidates by percentage won in the balloting.

The thinking is that this would help Kerry because he would get a least some of the 9 EVs as opposed to zero since Bush will win the state.

Since Bush is expected to win the state then we must also expect the initiative to fail. If you are a Bush voter then you would also vote to keep all the EVs for the winner of the popular vote in CO (Bush).