Can Republicans hold on to the Senate?

[DarkPhenyx]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5674000/

In Dixie, five Democratic-held seats will be up for grabs on Election Day, in the Carolinas, Georgia, Florida and Louisiana, due to the retirements of Democratic incumbents.

Mathematics for Democrats
Assume, for the sake of argument, that the Democrats hold three of those five open Southern seats.

They would then have 47 seats (we include Vermont’s Jim Jeffords, who usually votes with the Democrats and would be awarded a committee chairmanship if they gain the majority).

To advance from 47 to 50 or 51, the Democrats would need to win three or four of these seats now held by Republicans:

[freetobegay]

1. If we take anything in November

I would bet it's the Senate.

[LynneSin]

2. I think we have a great chance of seat pickups in 2 states

Alaska & Illinois both look great. I highly doubt that asshole Keyes has what it takes to be Obama in the Illinois race. And Alaskans are peeved that Frank Murkowski picked his own daughter to fill his own US Senate seat. Popular & Former 2 time democratic governor Tony Knowles is running against her. I think we can pick up this seat too.

[PCIntern]

5. Lynne:

Please fix your banner so my friend Allyson Schwartz's name is spelled correctly.

TIA...and don't forget that Darlin'Arlen's head is on the block with this Patriot Party's fellow.

Joe Hoeffel's to lose at this point, IMO.

[Catch22Dem]

3. Oklahoma is a real possibility

Rep. Brad Carson (OK-1) is running for senate here. He's quite popular in this repuke stronghold. He won his last house election with over 70% of the vote. He won his primary for Senate this year with over 80%. In the primaries, he had 380,000 votes (or so) and his republican challenger had like 120,000. I know my numbers are off, but the story they tell are the same. Oklahoma could very well swing Democratic in this Senate race. We just elected a Democratic governor two years ago too.

[OKNancy]

7. And Carson has a lot of money!

It can't hurt. Unless Coburn can get a ton from the National Republicans, he's in a world of hurt moneywise.

[Killarney]

4. it's possible, but slim chances IMO.

[mndemocrat_29]

6. Of course it's possible

Though I'm praying night and day that it doesn't happen. I think that, barring a sweep (which could very well happen, as anyone whose watching John Kerry just nail down swing state after swing state is seeing) the Senate will likely be a margin of 3-4 senators different between the two parties. I think that the four following seats will be the most likely indicators of who will take the Senate:

Alaska-For. Gov. Tony Knowles is running an excellent campaign against "Sen." Lisa Murkowski and polls show him with a consistent, but small lead in this state. Personally I think the upcoming win in the primary will give little bounce to Daddy's Girl Lisa and Knowles will win, but since this is Alaska, Murkowski will have a political party edge.

Oklahoma-For. Rep. Tom Coburn is a rightwing nutjob (he's more conservative than the man he's replacing, Don Nickles, if that's scary enough for you) and would normally be unelectable statewide, but Oklahoma is a conservative state and Rep. Brad Carson will have to work extra hard to win here.

Louisiana-This will be all about the runoff-Rep. David Vitter will surely receive a spot in the runoff, as will either Treas. John Kennedy or Rep. Chris John. The Democrat will probably be favored here (Louisiana hasn't elected a Republican, for decades (possibly never)), but if the Senate's control hinges on this race, there will be a lot more time spent here.

South Carolina-This is probably the toughest of the four listed here that we are going to have to work for. Inez is a telegenic, appealing, moderate candidate in this state and a much better speaker than Jim DeMint, but the fact is that this is South Carolina and a Democrat will have an uphill battle here statewide. I think Inez can do it, but she'll need to match DeMint evenly for funds.

If Democrats can take at least three of those seats, I think they've won the Senate. The best thing that Democrats have going for them is their terrific candidates this cycle (I think it darn near equals that of 2000-and that's saying something). Many of these candidates have been elected statewide (Knowles, Tenenbaum, Betty Castor of Florida), are noted campaigners (Brad Carson, Nancy Farmer of Missouri and particularly Denise Majette of Georgia), and have universal statewide name recognition (Knowles again, Erskine Bowles of North Carolina, and darn near Barack Obama in Illinois). Compare that to the Republicans lineup-Pete Coors (most famous for wanting to sell alcohol to minors), Tom Coburn, Richard Burr, Jim DeMint and Bill McCollum (boring, rightwing nutjob congressmen), and don't even get me started on Alan Keyes-and you see why the Democrats have such an excellent job of winning the Senate.

[yellowcanine]

8. What about Specter in PA? Could a combination of wingnut

defection and Kerry coat tails win it for the Dems?