TPM: Study finds Swift Boat ads are effective with indies

[Rose Siding]

I just saw a preview of a study that finds the Swift Boat ads quite effective among independents in raising doubts about John Kerry's war record. And that suggests that Karl Rove will want to send more money toward the group running the ad.

This of course is only the beginning. The temperature will get much higher in the next couple months since, as Charlie Cook, aptly argues this week, President Bush is in the process of losing this election unless there's a major change in the dynamic of the race.

-- Josh Marshall

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2004_08_08.php#003266

[kodi]

1. it is. i heard some people talking about at a place i visited.

had to comment to them how i trust the boat mates of kerry more than those who did not seve on the boat with him. nevertheless, they were parroting what the commericals said.

[Democat]

2. If this is true, it proves that Kerry will lose by not going on offense

Press releases simply do not count in the real world.

Bill Clinton said it on the Daily Show - you must hit them back twice as hard every time they hit you. Look at an attack as an opportunity to open an attack on them.

Kerry has been weak in his resonse to the Swift Boat Liars - that is why it's working. When you look weak, you are weak.

If Kerry lets these groups Gore him, we will all pay the price.

[lancdem]

5. And McCain's criticism of the ads did little

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

25. of course not

when mccain goes on stage and sits beaming behind dumbya the next day

[lancdem]

3. This is disappointing news

and since Kerry is not running ads this month, the DNC will have to fight this.

[Doctor_J]

4. you'll never go broke

underestimating the ignorance of the american voter.

The fact that a war hero has defend himself from attacks from a devout coward and deserter like * speaks very poorly on our country.

[RobinA]

20. Of Everything

about our current predicament, I think it's this relatively small (when compared to war, torture, etc.) thing that floors me the most. I cannot get my mind around it. It's the freakin' Twilight Zone.

[xray s]

6. I don't know why we are not hitting them back hard

The book was co-authored by a proven raving loon neo-fascist freeper and contains documented outright lies.

But a lie that goes unanswered becomes the truth to those who don't take the time to check the facts.

This needs to be taken seriously and responded to agressively.

[Doctor_J]

8. they're running a dukakis-like campaign

in 1988 he finally hit back with a few lame spots with GHWB sitting with Noriega, but it was too little too late. Hopefully the kerry campaign will wake up and smell the cyanide and start hitting back.

[Rose Siding]

13. Sampley, I just learned, not only attacked Kerry and McCain but Poppy!

and Bush *still* won't denounce them. Stampley is a step away from the Swift baffoons, but still...

from Digby (links to sources embedded at site):

...But, in all the years of running against George Bush our side never stooped to questioning his bravery or integrity in the Big One.

But somebody did. His name is Ted Sampley, Godfather of the Swift Boat Liars. If you'd like to read all about Bush Sr's alleged cowardice in WWII, here it is, from the chief veteran smear artist himself. Seems he has problems with a lot of war heroes.

I have often said that Junior is a bad son. I can't think of anything worse than standing with the scum who smeared your own father's war record. Unless you hate your father, which it seems he does....

http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2004_08_08_digbysblog_archive.html#109226492059211715

[Cheesehead]

7. They are in heavy rotation here in Wisco.

I see the Cheneying thing at least twice during the local news every day and it is really pissing me off!

[annxburns]

9. Okay, a couple of points.

Below is a what I think Josh is talking about.

1. This was taking on August 8th and 9th when people were just starting to hear about it. So these people may have only seen the ad and not seen Kerry's response. It takes awhile for the attack AND THE COUNTERATTACK to sink in

2. This is a REPUBLICAN polling outfit - we do not know how this survey was taken.

3. Even this survey, in the first blush of this attack, says the
majority of undecideds are not going to be affected by this ad

4. A lot of this will depend on the final not first spin. If it ends up being "They smeared Kerry like the did McCain" then these numbers will flip.

ALEXANDRIA, VA – Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates (FMA), a Republican polling and strategic consulting firm based in Alexandria, VA, has just completed their second likely voter survey with interviews conducted ONLY in the 19 battleground states. The battleground states are defined as those in which the Bush and Kerry campaigns have been focusing their paid media efforts throughout the campaign.

Nearly 6 in 10 likely voters claim that they that they recently saw, read or heard something about the TV ad “Swift Boat Veterans for Truth” released and began airing in several key battleground states questioning the truthfulness of Senator Kerry’s Vietnam War record. Among those who claimed to have seen, read or heard something about the ad, a majority overall and among undecided voters said it would not impact their vote either way. However to the extent it did impact voting intentions, it was a negative for Sen. Kerry by as much as nearly a 3 to 1 margin.

“Make no mistake -- controversy surrounding potential “dirty laundry” still sells in American politics and this is a sterling example of it. But most surprising is that despite Sen. McCain’s swift and very public repudiation of this ad and the lingering questions on the veracity of the charges, it still ends up being a net negative for Kerry – especially among crucial undecided voters. In a close race where every little bit counts, Kerry can’t afford to sustain too many minor hits like this.” said Tony Fabrizio, who served as chief pollster for Bob Dole’s ’96 Presidential campaign.

“Recently, have you seen, read or heard anything about a TV ad being aired by a group of Vietnam Veterans who question the truthfulness of Sen. John Kerry’s Vietnam War record?”

Overall 2 Way Undecided 3 Way Undecided
Yes 57.6% 48.5% 38.3%
No 35.4 42.1 45.1
DK/Refused 7.0 9.4 16.6

ASKED ONLY OF THOSE AWARE: “And did what you saw, read or heard make you MORE likely or LESS likely to vote for John Kerry for President? If it didn’t impact how you would vote, just say so.”

Overall 2 Way Undecided 3 Way Undecided
More Likely 19.4% 10.9% 9.5%
No Impact 50.8 51.1 56.2
Less Likely 27.1 29.9 24.1
DK/Refused 2.7 8.0 10.3
Net +/- -7.7% -19.0% -14.6%

About the Poll

The telephone survey was conducted in the 19 battleground states in which the Bush and Kerry campaigns have focused their paid media efforts to this point. The sample of 1,000 likely Presidential voters was conducted on August 8-9, 2004 and has a margin of error of +/-3.1% at the 95% confidence interval. Respondent selection was at random within predetermined geographic units to reflect actual electoral vote allotment to each state. The battleground states used for the survey were AR, AZ, CO, FL, IA, LA, ME, MI, MN, MO, NH, NM, NV, OH, OR, PA, WA, WI, WV.

[Doctor_J]

12. which means it shouild be easy to smack down

but silence ain't going to do it.

[lancdem]

16. And Kerry's campaign has to be doing constant

internal polling. I'd like to think if this were causing a problem, they'd be responding. I hope they wouldn't wait.

[Green Lantern]

22. I don't believe

this issue will have a serious impact on creaky oldies like me who lived thru the era. The Riverine Patrols were hell, from all I gathered at the time (not my duty station). Older indies won't be swayed by this crap-they are going for a younger type who was born later.

They are vulnerable on the AWOL/deserter charge and are trying to bury it in a lot of smoke.
Screw 'em. And keep punching with the records of Bush. Cut his legs out from under him with the truth. He can't stand up to that.

No more Bushwa.

[meti57b]

10. I too agree the ad has to be answered. moveon.org has the resources ...

to put together counter-ads but they don't seem to be doing it, either.

[Protected]

11. Then it's time for some liberal 527 to put some money in an ad that

dumps on Bush. Why not? Evidently all you need is a couple hundred grand to run it in a couple of markets. After that, CNN and friends take it from there at no cost to you.

[annxburns]

14. This was also taken before Corsi was outed as a freeper ...

...BTW

[Rose Siding]

17. That was on cable stations, right?

Don't these ads run on networks? Relatively few people watch cable political shows.

[RhodaGrits]

15. All i know is that I had to start all over again with my mom

about voting for Kerry after she saw the ad - she started parroting their lies and saying she wasn't voting for either of Bush or Kerry. I got her straightened out but I think this ad really hurt. I don't think they had to do more than get people saying "yeah but some people say ...." and it took away from Kerry's service.

These people are beyond contempt and well into loathing.

[annxburns]

18. I don't know what this means but ...

... rasmussen reports also showed a dip for Kerry when this first came out but then it showed him recovering and he is now leading by 3 points.

And don't underestimate how this might solidify dem votes. Polling that I saw said 8% of DEM voters were voting for Bush. This may push them back in Kerry's camp.

So yeah, hit them back hard and often. A Move On org ad in response would be a good idea. But no panic or hand wringing please.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

[geek tragedy]

19. Deep breaths, folks!

You knew the smear was coming, and it's barely causing a blip.

We're talking about 30% of under 50% of the undecideds.

Here's the good news--those people would vote for Bush anyways.

To put it another way, among undecideds:

About 50% (or more) didn't see them, despite all of the publicity

15% would be more likely to vote against Kerry

30% said it would either make no difference (which is surprising, given that it was an effective ad in the way it was put together) or that it would make them more likely to support Kerry.

This shows that people are initially resistant to this crap.

The more they push this stuff, which works best as a hit and run tactic rather as a big issue, the more it will backfire.

[KC21304]

21. This morning I read a post that had either some of the swiftvets book

or maybe it was just rebuttal to Kerry's band of brothers but it took something each one of Kerry's guys had said and tried to prove they were lying. Did anyone else see this ? I had to leave and didn't bookmark.

[Bake]

23. Deep breath my ass! Kerry needs to hit back HARD!!

That's how Clinton survived the RW bullshit!! He made the fuckers PAY when they slimed him.

Kerry is sitting on his ass, running a Dukakis campaign. And it's pissing me off.

Bake

[genius]

24. Why aren't we airing deserter ads? Negative ads always work.