Looks like Gallup will be releasing a new poll, Bush 50 Kerry 47

[Walt Starr]

http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerryspot.asp

Get ready for this single poll to be pushed as gospel for the next 5 days or so.

[swag]

1. I welcome this as a positive development, contra complacency

VENCEREMOS!

[TruthIsAll]

16. Here are the other polls

NATIONAL POPULAR TREND												
Data source: PollingReport.com

Average of 10 national polls:						
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME,DEMCORP						
					
Avg Polling Trend
2004	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	
Jan 	44.0	49.4	-5.4	
Feb	48.4	45.6	2.8	
Mar	48.4	44.8	3.6	
Apr	47.4	45.3	2.1	
May	47.9	44.3	3.6	
June	47.4	45.1	2.3	
July	48.3	45.2	3.1	
Aug	50.0	43.9	6.1	
	
													
												
______Poll	Curr. Curr.
______Date	Kerry	Bush														
TIME	807	51	43		
FOX	804	46	43	
CNN/GAL801	48	48	
LAT	721	48	46	
PEW	718	46	44	
									
IBD	806	49	43	
CBS	730	49	43	
DEMC	805	52	45	
ABC/wp 802	52	45
NWK	730	52	44	
									
ZOGBY	729	48	43	
AP	806	48	45	
NBC/wsj721	45	47
ARG	801	49	45	
QPAC	722	46	43
										
Mean	______	48.6	44.5	

[LynneSin]

2. Zing em back with this poll

[dennis4868]

3. Oh crap....

here we go again....1 poll for Bush within the margin of error and 10 in Kerry's favor and the Bush favored poll gets all the attention!

[Walt Starr]

4. Yup, this is where we can take Dem_Strategist's suggestions to heart

Time to get out in front of this message, I mean like YESTERDAY!!!

We need to counter it and counter it BIG!!!

[Joanne98]

21. But HOW???????????

what's the plan........

[RoundRockD]

6. Candy Crowley mentioned the Gallup at the beginning of Inside Politics

and then later in the same show quoted the Pew poll which has Kerry in the lead. I think they're embarrassed by their own poll.

[Walt Starr]

8. But the corporate line is spew the bullshit

bury the truth.

[TruthIsAll]

5. 10 other polls have Kerry ahead 50-44.

DISREGARD GALLUP.

THEY ARE OUTLIARS AS WELL AS OUTLIERS.

[Walt Starr]

11. Is it possible the Outlier(liar) polls are designed so they can continue

their marketing spiel of "a very close race" to attempt to draw interest and viewership?

Seriously, could all of these polls be manipulated in order to show a horse race when it may already be a given in both camps that Bush has a long tough struggle if he wants any hope of winning at all, and they won't let the truth out because then nobody would pay attention to the political shit on TeeVee?

It would also explain the corporate Pravda attitude of the news media as they need to push Bush since he is really so far behind in order to turn it into a horse race.

[Stuckinthebush]

14. OutLIARS indeed!

Good one, TIA!

[Nightjock]

7. That's the final straw

Some very smart people here have told me polls are bullspit.
I now believe it.
How can every poll show Kerry ahead and than one show Bush ahead by three?

My emotions will not rise and fall with this crap anymore!!!!!!!!

[olddem43]

9. Just remember, Gallup is the main one that predicted

"Dewey Wins"

[dennis4868]

10. I think Gallup...

had Bush ahead on the eve of the 2000 election by 6-10 points....haha!

[Marlie]

13. Maybe this BS Poll is a good thing...

It may inspire all the people who have been badly hurt by the
Bushies to get off their butts and vote him out of office. If Kerry
seems to be a cinch to win, they may sit back, not waste their
time voting, thinking Kerry's a sure thing.

CNN contradicts itself. Novak was on earlier today saying Bush
was in trouble as Kerry was ahead by a large number of electoral
votes.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. Their Election Eve Poll Had Bush Up 48% to 46%

NT

[RobertSeattle]

12. It still comes down to electoral vote anyways

http://www.electoral-vote.com says it is now (or still)

Kerry 307 - Bush 231.

[West Coast Democrat]

15. That's actually a 1 pt slide for Bush* in the Gallup poll

He was at 51% in the previous poll; Kerry holds steady.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[NewYorkerfromMass]

28. Bush down 1 point alright. Even Gallup shows him going down.

[merh]

17. I have no problems with that ...

it will make the followers more complacent and the Kerry team more determined. (imho)

[quaoar]

18. Gallup

uses "likely voters" as the basis for putting Bush ahead.

Most pollsters use likely voters to one degree or another, but they each have a different way of determining who is a likely voter.

They don't just ask "Are you likely to vote?" They ask other questions like, "Do you know where your polling place is?" etc. And each pollster uses different questions and gives different weight to the answers.

[thinkingwoman]

19. the proper response to this

is laughter.

[Joanne98]

20. Good ole Gallup

They wouldn't happen to be related to Readers Digest would they?

[PROGRESSIVE1]

22. How about CNN gets shutdown when Kerry takes the White House!

[WI_DEM]

23. didn't the final Gallup poll in 2000 have Bush leading

by a sizable margin?

[DaveinMD]

24. they did

they undercounted the number of African Americans that actually voted. They are using poor modeling and stricter definitions of likely voters. They are a major outlier.

[West Coast Democrat]

25. Gallup showed Bush leading by 2-3 pts, and Nader w/ 4%

http://www.pollingreport.com/2000.htm#LATEST

[fujiyama]

26. I wonder

what the registered voters numbers are.

Their "likely voters" sample is really strange and I think this election cycle, where there is a lot of energy on the left for this election, the likely voters sample isn't reliable enough.

Not only that, but in the last round of polls following the convention, they were an outlier. Every other poll showed Kerry up, some by as many as 5-6 points.

[Leilani]

29. Even FOX News Poll ( Fair & Balanced)

has Kerry leading....

CNN..USA...Gallup has gone over to the dark side.

Besides National polls mean zilch, zippo, nada...

Look at state polls in the Battlegrounds...that is where the election will be won or lost.