How were other incumbents doing at this point in time?

[elperromagico]

The only data I've been able to dig up so far is from Gallup. And here it is, with the final percentages in parentheses:

1964

Poll: Johnson by 36 points.
General Election: Johnson by 23 points.

Johnson - 65% (61%)
Goldwater - 29% (38%)
Other/Undecided - 6% (1%)

1972

Poll: Nixon by 34 points.
General Election: Nixon by 23 points.

Nixon - 64% (61%)
McGovern - 30% (38%)
Other/Undecided - 6% (1%)

1976

Poll: Carter by 15 points.
General Election: Carter by 2 points.

Ford - 36% (48%)
Carter - 51% (50%)
Other/Undecided - 13% (2%)

1980

Poll: Carter by 1 point.
General Election: Reagan by 10 points.

Carter - 39% (41%)
Reagan - 38% (51%)
Anderson - 13% (7%)
Other/Undecided - 10% (1%)

1984

Poll: Reagan by 19 points.
General Election: Reagan by 18 points.

Reagan - 56% (59%)
Mondale - 37% (41%)
Other/Undecided - 7% (0%)

1992

Poll: Clinton by 16 points.
General Election: Clinton by 6 points.

Bush - 39% (37%)
Clinton - 54% (43%)
Perot - 0% (19%)*
Other/Undecided - 7% (1%)

*Perot had dropped out of the race at this point.

1996

Poll: Clinton by 21 points.
General Election: Clinton by 9 points.

Clinton - 55% (49%)
Dole - 34% (41%)
Perot - 6% (8%)
Other/Undecided - 5% (2%)

Can anyone provide any other data for matchups from August? Gallup seems to have gained a reputation around here for being unreliable.

[The Magistrate]

1. Nowadays, Sir, Gallup Is Un-Reliable

For the last several elections, something about their methodology seems to inflate the strength of incumbency and simple name recognition....

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[elperromagico]

2. Which is why I want more numbers. n/t

[iamjoy]

3. Which Is Why Kerry Doesn't Put Too Much In These Polls

eom

[DaveinMD]

4. all the other polls

show Kerry with a lead of at least 3 points and some as much as 5. He is kicking ass in the state polls.

[tritsofme]

5. Here are Presidential Approval Ratings going back to 1972 in August

(or latest possible date of approval)

Nixon
6/13/1972-6/13/1972 59% Approval

Ford
6/8/1976-6/8/1976 45% Approval

Carter
8/12/1980-8/12/1980 32% Approval

Reagan
8/10/1984-8/12/1984 53% Approval

Bush
8/10/1992-8/12/1992 35% Approval

Clinton
8/5/1996-8/7/1996 57% Approval

(all data from Gallup Organization)

[elperromagico]

6. Thank you.

So all of the incumbents who won had approval ratings over 50%. Very interesting. ;)

Gotta get Bush down to his father's levels though. Then I'll feel great confidence. :D

[tritsofme]

7. That's why were in such a grey area.

bush's approval rating right now according to Gallup is 48%.

He is nowhere near the high 20%/30% area of approval that Carter and 41 found themselves at this time of the year, but he not risen to the level of successful incumbents like Nixon, Reagan, and Clinton in terms of approval either.

You can make the assertion that no incumbent has won with an approval rating so low, but one could also counter than no incumbent has lost with an approval rating so high.

[The Magistrate]

8. Mr. Ford's Was In The Same Range, Sir

They share this in common, too: neither of them was elected to the office by the votes of the people in the first place....

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[tritsofme]

9. They didn't measure approval after June for some reason in 1976

And its likely that his approval sunk through the summer as the horseraces showed Carter with huge leads until the race started to tighten in September.

Remember that 1976 was also a very close election in terms of the popular vote.

[The Magistrate]

10. True Enough, Sir

But in elections, like hand grenades and horse-shoes, close will do....

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"