Ohio turned blue!

[benburch]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Amazing. Impressive.

[skooooo]

1. Kerry in a landslide!!!

[mark414]

2. 327 to 211

i may have just creamed my pants...

sorry for the visual

[last_texas_dem]

3. Awesome!

I'm rarely an optimistic person but I'm feeling more confident than ever about this election. If we can pull OH, I think we've got it.

Cool site, too. Right now, I'm disapponted that MN and WI are as close as they are, but excited that VA and TN are as close as they are!

[mediaman007]

6. Kerry is doing very well in Minnesota...

Bush winning in Minnesota is wishful thinking.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

8. If Clinton and Gore get actively involved...

TN and AK could turn back to blue. If we stay the course, and for God's sake, keep working as though we were running behind, Kerry can win in a landslide. Electoral College-wise, anyway!

[liberal N proud]

4. It blue but not blue enough

We can't stop now. Ohio must be solid blue then we still must keep pushing.
Kerry must take Ohio in November!

[Bullshot]

10. The way it looks, if Kerry is to win Ohio,

He needs to solidly carry most of the major cities, including Toledo, Cleveland-Canton-Akron, Youngstown, and possibly Columbus. I don't hold much hope for him to carry Cincinnati. That city would vote for Joseph Stalin if he ran as a Republican.

The rural areas of Ohio, especially NW Ohio appear to be solid Bush backers. You try to make any point about Bush and his AWOL, drugs, alcoholism, lying about Iraq's WMDs or whatever, and you're treated like a leper.

[Radio-Active]

22. All I see in Cincinnati

are Kerry Edwards signs and bumper stickers. Very few for Bush-Cheney. The more Republican parts of town have a lot of support our troops bumper stickers, but very few Bush-Cheney. If Kerry is winning in Cincinnati, he wins Ohio!

[Feanorcurufinwe]

29. Dueling anecdotal accounts

however the pessimistic one didn't have any anecdotes - just opinion.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

5. I'm working to make AR blue, too

From what I've heard from folks, Kerry has a real chance. When you factor in that I live in the only part of the state that has a Repuke Con-man, there is hope AR will spit Bush out and vote some sanity back into the WH.

[DaveSZ]

7. Re: Minnesota

Strategic Vision is a Republican polling firm.

[Meshuga]

9. I'd love to see VA turn blue!

We are getting there!

[cynatnite]

11. Me Too In TN

Bush 48%
Kerry 46%

In northeast TN it's heavily conserv, but my neighbors and most other people I know are going with Kerry. They think he'd do a good job and they loathe Bush on every level.

Cyn:)

[veteran_for_peace]

21. We in Memphis are going to care TN

We are going to get out the vote like nothing this state has seen.

[redstateblues]

23. Bredesen Won TN- Kerry Can Too!

[Branjor]

12. New Jersey went from strong Kerry...

to weak Kerry. Ugh. What's happening to my state? I hope it has nothing to do with Gov. McGreevey.

[Zynx]

13. There was one poll that only showed him up by nine.

However, the polling agency that conducted that poll is a Republican firm while two unbiased firms have showed him up by solid double digit margins.

[RhodaGrits]

14. I do fear there will be some McGreevy damage though -

my homophobe brother in NJ called doing handsprings about his resignation yesterday. He thinks he was a corrupt pol but his coming out of the closet was icing on cake for him. It was not a pretty conversation between us.

[gasperc]

18. the GOP might overplay it, and get backfire

like pushing for an immediate election instead of accepting his come clean speech an Nov.15th resig avoiding a special election. We could easily argue that this would save the state a HUGE unnecessary expense.

[LynneSin]

20. New Jersey is solidly Kerry even with the McGreevey incident

New Jersey folks will be the first to complain about how corrupt McGreevey is and then turn around and complain how much they can't stand Bush. New Jersey is NOT a state that is committed to voting straight ticket but instead for who they think will do best to help New Jersey

[DaveinMD]

27. Republican Poll

Jersey is solid Dem. Its going Kerry.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

30. This site uses the 'latest' poll, whoever conducted it

New Jersey
Date 	Pollster	       Kerry 	Bush 	Nader
Aug 9 	Strategic Vision	49 	40 	5
Aug 4 	Eagleton-Rutgers	53 	33 	3
Aug 2 	Quinnipiac Univ.	49 	36 	6
Jul 28 	Research 2000	        50 	40 	2
Jul 26 	Fairleigh Dickinson U.	42 	41 	6
Jun 30 	Rasmussen	        51 	41 	3
Jun 20 	Quinnipiac Univ.	46 	40 	7
May 16 	Quinnipiac Univ.	46 	43 	5
http://www.electoral-vote.com/pastpolls.html#New%20Jersey

[gasperc]

15. let's not get over confident!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This is Great news!!!!

this is great but NO vacations!!!!!!!!!

Let's keep working like we're 5-10 pts down!!!!!!!!!

Dukakis was leading all through August, even Mondale led Reagan after the convention.

Expect the unexpected. A study out Arizona shows that when people are reminded of 9/11 they are more prone to support Bush NO MATTER WHAT THEIR POLITICAL AFFILIATION. Ginning up for an Iran war resolution, deception about Kerry's tax policies that may cause swing voters to believe their taxes will sky rocket.

I like playing the devil's advocate because I don't want to wake up Nov. 3rd with Bush re-elected.

[Julien Sorel]

16. Thanks.

Because frankly, I'm worried that too much is going well at this point. The election is still 90 days off, they get their convention, and Bush has done a miserable job of campaigning thus far -- surely, even he can do better. There's lots of room for things to turn around in the wrong direction. People need to guard against allowing Bush to be seen as the "aw shucks" underdog, too.

Pessimism sucks. Overconfidence sucks. Being beaten by a rope-a-doping Bush would suck more than anything.

[Zynx]

17. Mondale didn't lead Reagan this far after the convention.

I don't think he even lead at all in most polls. I think he only lead in an overnight poll. Kerry has lead consistently in legitimate polls.

[wicket]

19. WOO HOO!!!!

Great news :) We've still got a long fight ahead of us, but Kerry is doing a great job! :D

[Norquist Nemesis]

24. "...if there is another terror attack ..."

"Needless to say, if there is another terror attack or Osama bin Laden is captured, all bets are off." :scared: :scared: :scared:

I sure hope that's not a prescient statement.

Woohoo!!! Illinois is solid blue now!!!

[BJ]

25. Interesting. But temper your enthusiasm. It's a long way to Nov.

Let's hope this trend holds true.

[Joanne98]

26. It will get better when Ohioians find out about this

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A61178-20...

Since 2001, President Bush's tax cuts have shifted federal tax payments from the richest Americans to a wide swath of middle-class families, the Congressional Budget Office has found, a conclusion likely to roil the presidential election campaign.

The CBO study, due to be released today, found that the wealthiest 20 percent, whose incomes averaged $182,700 in 2001, saw their share of federal taxes drop from 64.4 percent of total tax payments in 2001 to 63.5 percent this year. The top 1 percent, earning $1.1 million, saw their share fall to 20.1 percent of the total, from 22.2 percent.

Over that same period, taxpayers with incomes from around $51,500 to around $75,600 saw their share of federal tax payments increase. Households earning around $75,600 saw their tax burden jump the most, from 18.7 percent of all taxes to 19.5 percent.

The analysis, requested in May by congressional Democrats, echoes similar studies by think tanks and Democratic activist groups. But the conclusions have heightened significance because of their source, a nonpartisan government agency headed by a former senior economist from the Bush White House, Douglas Holtz-Eakin. The study will likely stoke an already burning debate about the fairness and efficacy of $1.7 trillion in tax cuts that the president pushed through Congress.

Spend it around. Especially if your in Ohio. We're taking this state back. :)

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

28. While you're spreading it around

Home Foreclosures in Area Soar

Yup. We've turned the corner and driven straight off the cliff. Home foreclosures are up 26% in Ohio this year -- that's one damn-spanking fine recovery we've got going on!

[mvd]

31. I think we'll win Ohio by 1 or 2%

I also see us taking one of Arkansas, Tennessee, and Virginia. This map makes me extremely happy, especially considering it looks like the Swift Boats lie hasn't done damage. The GOP convention just might make some of these states closer or maybe give Bush a temporary lead in a state like Ohio.

I've learned never to underestimate the evil Repuke machine, but we also should be happy when we come across things like this.

[benburch]

32. The swift boats lie HELPED

People who were on the fence were pushed off onto our side by the obviously dirty play.

[kwolf68]

35. Doubtful on Virginia

I live here and have most of my life.

This state has a huge population of Religious Wingnuts, NRA members and people reliant on the military-industrial complex.

Oh sure, there are some real solid Liberal strong-holds in Virginia (Arlington, Alexandria for example), but Northern Virginia isn’t near as Liberal as it used to be with the movement of defense industry.

Get outside of the DC area and you are in “Traditional Values” area…Drive through Madison County and you will see Wooden Crosses as you drive down the road with lots of Bible Thumping at the local 7-11. Toddle through Richmond and you see the ashes of the Confederacy still smoldering with “Heritage Not Hate” Bumper Stickers. This area of Richmond is far more right-wing than it was 7, 8 years ago…we can blame the local AM Radio Station WRVA for pounding the masses with 12 consecutive hours of right-wing radio + the neo-Conservative Richmond-Times Newspaper. Go further West or further South and it gets beyond hope for Kerry.

The city of Richmond itself will tend to go Democratic, but the suburbs are 100% locked in for the Republicans.

No, the only way Kerry takes this state is if Bush kills a newborn baby on national TV or his administration gets embroiled in scandal (the illegal abortion he allegedly had arranged in the early 1970s holds promise), but short of catastrophic events for the Chimp regime he wins this state around 53-47% at the worst. I could even see Bush getting 55 or 56% of the vote in Virginia.

[Mrs_Beastman]

33. Happy days are here again!

[Bombtrack]

34. That site is rediculous

Ohio is a tossup. 2 polls were released yesterday, one with Kerry leading by 4 w/in the margin of error, one of Bush leading by 3, obviosly within the margin of error. That website has just a horribly naive methodology and is only setting people's expectations way too high.

We don't have a huge margin of error in the electoral college. I still think we can't win unless we win either Florida, Ohio, or Missouri. Or both WV and NV.

[yellowcanine]

36. 2000: Florida, Florida, Florida; 2004: Ohio, Ohio, Ohio - except that

this time the Dems take Florida so we don't need Ohio! Heh. We will take it anyway, thank you very much.

Ohio: Barely Bush...............Barely Kerry!
Florida: Barely Kerry...........Weak Kerry!

Heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh,
heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh,
heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh,
heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh,
heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh,
heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh,
heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh,
heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh,
heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh,
heh, heh, heh, heh, ...............Ha!