Calling All DU Political Scientists And Statisticians....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

It's back......


The infamous Gallup Poll that showed George Bush with a 52% to 39% lead over Al Gore on 10/27/2000 while almost every other published poll was showing a different race now has Bush ahead 50% to 47% among likely voters...

www.pollingreport.com


This poll contradicts every other recently published poll....


I would like to know their methododology and perhaps a representative from their organization could explain it to us...


Here are some questions that vex me...

What percentage of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans are in their polls?

What percentage of Americans does Gallup expect to vote on Election Day?

What percentage of African Americans, Asians, Hispanics are in their polls?

[Zynx]

1. They produced almost the same results again.

Gallup is beginning to bug me. I think they might be expecting nearly identical numbers of Democrats and Republicans and that would explain why their polls are about 4-5% more favorable to Bush than everyone else.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. The Parties Are At Rough Parity In Identification

BUT the Dems still have a slight edge, especially when it comes to voting in presidential elections where turnout is highest...

[Zynx]

4. Dems have a four or five point edge.

It's not much, but it makes a difference.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Of Course It Does...

And party i d is fluid but most longitudunal studies continue to show Dems with a slight edge.....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. I Look Forward To The New Round Of Polls....

I hate going to pollingreport and seeing the Gallup Poll on top....

[spooky3]

6. You're asking factual questions that only they can answer, but here's

some info that may surprise you, from Pollkatz.

He finds that Gallup, like all others except Fox and Zogby, resemble the other polls in their results.

http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/

See the section down the page on "Regarding poll bias."

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. I Still Don't Understand...

Their horse race numbers are consistently different from everybody else if even by a small margin....

[spooky3]

11. If Pollkatz did his analysis correctly, they aren't consistently different

enough from the other polls (except Fox and Zogby) for us to say reliably that they are wrong, based on the data he has so far.

[WiseMen]

8. Best Case: Poor Likely Voter screen. Worst Case: Smear Influencing Indis

The last Poll diff could be explained by the fact that all calls
were made on weekend.

This time they were not.

There could be a difference in the formula used to define a likely
voter. Socioeconomic factors may bleed into the Gallup method and
bias the result against the Democrat. But the Gallup method may
more accurately predict the result!

Unfortunately, Gallup's solid reputation in the industry would lead
one to give some creedence to the conclusion that Kerry moved very
little after the Convention and has certainly stalled since in the
face of multiple lines of attack of his image and manipulation of
public opinion by the incumbent campaign.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. If Gallup Is Infallible Why Did They Pick The Wrong Popular Vote

Winner in 48, 76, and 00....


If Gallup is infallible why did they have Bush up 52% to 39% over Gore on 10/27/00 when most polls showed a substantially closer race.....


If Gallup is infallible why did they show Bill Clinton getting 49% of the vote in 1992 when he ended up with 43%...


Gallup is the most hyped poll in the world despite it's flaws...


As someone who has done post grad work in Political Science I will say their polls are useful for longitudinal studies because precision isn't as important when measuring attitudes over time... For instance it doesn't matter if 22% 0f Americans and not 28% of Americans opposed the death penalty in 1972...

on edit- since you are so impressed with Gallup and you suggest that Kerry's alleged "decline" in the polls can be attributed to the Swift Boat Veterans for Bush brouhaha Kerry has actually moved up in the Gallup Poll since the brouhaha began....

Also, you keep beating the Swift Boat Veterans for Bush drum... The people who believe that crap are the same people that believe Vince Foster was laying the wood to Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton was running drugs out of a Little Rock airport.....

[WiseMen]

12. False rumor is intended to cast doubt not create strong belief. Kerry's

great campaigning should reasonably have cause a significant surge.

It is only rational to expect the Republican tactics to dampen
Kerry's surge left un-answered.

I do expect our folk to return fire, but the Dem campaign was
clearly not well prepared.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. John O'Neil Has Been On Kerry's Ass Since Dick Nixon Was In The White

House....


This attack has been anticipated for a long time....


Back to the seminal topic- the Gallup Poll...

I am questioning the poll but since you want to hang your hat on it I'll point out that Kerry has actually moved up in the Gallup Poll since the Swiftboat Veterans For Bush brouhaha began...

This election will turn on perceptions of the economy and the so called war on terror which Iraq is a part of and everything else in noise...

Reeelection campaigns are referendums on the incumbent... If people like the job the incumbent is doing they will rehire him... If they don't like the job they will fire him....

[WiseMen]

14. There is no significant difference. Diff obviously within margin of error.

This is a pointless discussion. I do not support any single poll.

The trend across several poll is often usefull.

But, all opinion polling is problematic because several assumptions
have to be worked into the sampling and analysis models any of which
may not hold under special circumstances.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. The Thread Was Intended To Be A Discussion On Gallup's Methodology

Their poll is contradicted by five or six other published polls-


www.pollingreport.com


They were all over the place in 00 with the nadir or the zenith of their efforts culminating in a poll released on 10-27-00 which showed Bush leading Gore 52% -39%

Without mentioning any names a poster hijacked the thread and turned into a discussion of the efficacy or the lack of efficacy of the Swift Boat Veterans For Bush campaign....

[MoonRiver]

10. Also, we need to ask how many Democrats self-described as "liberal"

and "progressive" are polled. Back in 2001 right after the Selection, Gallup started soliciting my participation in its online polls. Zogby did the same thing. I responded to both, and when asked how I describe myself, as a Democrat, I always marked "liberal" among choices which included "conservative","moderate", and "progressive". (Both pollsters always ask this question.) To make a short story even shorter, after 2 surveys Gallup stopped sending me polls, and Zogby continues to this day to send me their polls. I have always suspected that Gallup just doesn't want the opinions of "liberals", while Zogby wants to sample a fair cross-section of the country. That's one huge reason why I NEVER trust a Gallup poll, and take Zogby's very seriously.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. kick(nt)