I'm little baffled as to how Obama isn't doing better in Michigan GE polls

[Hawaii Hiker]

Yeah, yeah, I know it's early, but in a state that has been devasted by the economy, Obama (or any Democrat) should win MI. easily....

I looked at the 2004 results, & Wayne County (I think that is in Detroit & is one of the most populated MI. counties) went strongly for Kerry & if turnout is very high this Nov., Obama should be able to win this critically important state...

www.electoral-vote.com

"We also have two general election polls. Obama has a good chance to win Iowa, a state Bush won in 2004. But losing Michigan could be disastrous for him. In principle, in a state as badly hit by the economic downturn as Michigan, any Democrat should be able to win easily, but Obama has some work to do there".

[WilliamPitt]

1. They're pissed at him for not campaigning there.

They bought the Clinton line about how he was dissing them. And they're pissed about not being allowed full participation in the convention.

WaPo:

The Democratic National Committee sanctioned Michigan and Florida for moving up their nominating contests in violation of party rules; it declared their primaries unofficial and denied them the right to seat their delegations in Denver. At the time of the sanctions, there was a widespread assumption that the eventual nominee would relent and allow both states full participation at the convention.

That was when it was also assumed that there would be an early outcome to the Clinton-Obama contest and that the winner could appear magnanimous toward two states with pivotal roles in the general election. That was when it was assumed the delegates wouldn't matter in the nomination battle. Today, it's clear they could.

Clinton won both Michigan and Florida handily. She won Michigan in part because Obama and other Democrats took their names off the ballot in solidarity with the DNC and as part of a pledge to Iowa, New Hampshire and other early-voting states not to participate in unsanctioned contests.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/08/AR2008020803801.html

I've got MI pretty squarely in the loss column, unless something drastic changes the math.

Makes PA pure gold.

[Hawaii Hiker]

2. If you're putting MI in the loss column, then PA AND Ohio are pure gold

because MI. has 17 electoral votes, that's alot....To help offset that, need Ohio's 20 EV's or at least Virgina's 13 EV's.....

[book_worm]

42. Nobody is putting MI in the loss column.

[Hola]

5. Dems will win MI

No chance in hell Obama will lose MI, even if the Dems put up Elmer Fudd on the ticket. It'll be bigger than the Kerry win too.

[ShortnFiery]

17. You got that right Hola! The entrenched Clintonian power elite will CLAIM and DO anything to cheat

their way into the Nomination.

Obama will win MI in the GE ... most OBJECTIVE people have no doubt. :thumbsup:

[PassingFair]

10. Don't worry about Michigan.

Obama will take it HANDILY.

If Granholm can beat DeVos, despite
her ineffectiveness and the outright
HATRED that taxpayers express about
her, Obama will have NO trouble against
McCain.

Don't forget, Mitt Romney won here over
McCain....

They must be extrapolating their data
based on the invalid primary we had here.

[Tyler Durden]

22. Lose Michigan, Lose the election.

You can't figure that we are going to get a landslide on our side this time. It's far past time we admitted that this will be a squeaker at best, and if we don't start making "nice" in Michigan, we can kiss this one bye-bye.

I don't know where others with their "Oh Yeah! Dems will take Michigan, no doubt!" get their information. I live here in on the buckle of the rust belt. I don't see it.

[TahitiNut]

38. That's right. And it ain't about Denver anymore.

It's about campaigning. It's about RESPECTING Michigan voters, facing them and answering their questions - addressing the valid concerns of the people in the state suffering the worst unemploymment, highest rate of foreclosures, and from which sons and daughters are dying in the Middle East.

Flip the bird to the people in this state and EVERYBODY loses. Everybody.

[Tyler Durden]

40. NICE to be on the same side with you again.

Good to agree. Time's wasting, isn't it?

[TahitiNut]

41. I doubt we've ever been on opposite sides.

The Democrats fucked up BIG time - GIGANTIC. The January FUBAR was a HUGE mistake. The piper WILL be paid ... and the Democrats damned well better campaign all over this state before November.

It's possible to take the U-P, the Alpena region, the college towns of Ann Arbor and East Lansing, the Pontiac area, south Oakland County (Sander Levin's district), and much of Wayne County (esp. Conyer's and Dingell's districts). There ARE areas that can be won back ... but right now they'll stay home in droves (or vote Bob Barr, McCain, or Nader) if the Democrats don't show them respect.

Sadly, Kwame Kilpatrick is a leper ... and campaigning in the City of Detroit is probably out of the question.

[Tyler Durden]

48. Wasn't that a disaster?

I fear for Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick. I hope she can maintain some distance.

[KittyWampus]

3. He's getting hit from McCain AND Hillary. And Hillary is harping on the primary debacle.

[PoliticalAmazon]

45. Exactly. Hillary is running basically unopposed. According to...

Chris Todd (MSNBC), when a candidate runs unopposed there numbers are much higher.

[rucky]

4. Probably because of the scapegoating campaign going on.

Which will be resolved by Saturday and forgotten by convention.

[frickaline]

6. I imagine this is due to 2 reasons

1. He isn't campaigning there

2. The perception that he does not want to count their primary votes won't play well there

Perhaps if they settle the MI problem the 2nd wound will heal but he will need to spend some time there.

[Kittycat]

14. I read somewhere that he's going back to MI late next week.

:)

[gasperc]

7. Well, we have some serious drags here in Michigan

first and foremost, our economy has been a clusterfuck for going on 6 years now. I like Granholm and all, and I think she's done heroic things with the pile of shit she got handed. In fact, tourism is up sharply. But with high gas prices forcing consumers to change their driving habits and the big three being run by a bunch of bags of rocks, economic turn around in the state has been difficult. The big three resent with a passion being told how to run thier business and it's taken them forever to figure out that Americans no longer want nor can afford gas guzzling SUVs.

Next, some of our politicians seem to also suffer from bag of rock brain disease. This convinced some of them that making a "statement" was more important than running a sanctioned primary. No primary, pissed off electorate and no serious voter outreach on the Democratic side. The GOP did campaign here for a week and it kept Romney's hopes alive. I think this has rubbed off on McCain for now. The last poll I saw has McCain at 41% and Obama at 37% with 21% undecided.

Next we have the mayor of Detroit fiasco which if not resolved soon could suppress turnout in Detroit.

And lastly, the ongoing battle over the status of our delegation has left a bad taste in the mouths of Democrats, given MI independents reason to pause and the GOP a weapon to beat us Democrats with.

So, there you have it, my humble opinion. I'm not that worried about it. McCain will make a serious play for Michigan. I've been pointing this out all year. He just dropped $220,000 in ad buys here. But when the rubber hits the road, I suspect he'll abandon MI when he see how much trouble he is in traditional GOP strongholds.

[mrcheerful]

8. Two major problems with Michigan

number 1, Michigan is very racists, not out in the open type racist but more the I can't be a racist I have a black friend types. The black friend is never invited to said persons home nor do they hang out socially with the black friend. Michigan is also very segergated, it earned the number 1 spot for it recently. Number 2 Michigan has pockets of strong republican supporters, Grand Rapids and Midland are just 2 areas where republicans are strong in the state. Nothing phases the republican supporters, theres no employment problem here, people just want government hand outs so they can sit on their sofa's watching cable TV, there are no poor people in michigan, after all how can they be poor when they have cars, cable TV and computers is the republican talking point. You will be hard pressed to find a state with people so willing to cut their own throat to stop another from getting anything they feel that person hasn't earned.

[Barack_America]

15. Ditto on the segregation.

Metro Detroit is painfully segregated. Hell, we invented the "Reagan Democrats", after all.

What you described is accurate and perfectly summarizes why I fled the suburbs for the city days after my 18th birthday.

[Marie26]

9. McCain's campaigning there

& in hard-hit areas of industrial Ohio. He's making a play for disaffected working class voters while Obama seems to have written them off. This is a problem - MI & OH should both be easy wins for the Dems, but right now McCain & Clinton are the only ones paying attention to them.

[Kokonoe]

11. The michigan campaign sold the story that Obama is disenfranchising

everyones vote. Hopefully our democrats in charge of Michigan will change their tune,
for the sake of all of us and get behind our nominee.

[SeaLyons]

29. He did disenfranchise their votes....he refused

to agree to a re-do.

[purji]

33. Hillary refused a caucus.n/t

[SeaLyons]

36. wonder why...

maybe because they're undemocratic.

[purji]

47. thats funny they weren't undemocratic when Bill was winning them.n/t

[TahitiNut]

44. If you honestly believed in "one person, one vote" you'd oppose that "re-do" as well.

Your candidate bias seems to interfere with principled analysis of the FUBAR in Michigan. You're being lied to.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6159157

[rox63]

12. Once the primaries are over, Obama will have a chance to spend more time in MI

He always does better after the people get to know him. He was simply following the DNC rules by not campaigning there for the primary. Many of Clinton's MI votes were on name-recognition alone, because they didn't know Obama yet.

[Barack_America]

13. Wayne County is tricky.

Detroit is in Wayne County, true. But many of the so-called "downriver" cities are also in Wayne. So you have the population of Detroit, which is predominantly African American and declining, plus all of those "blue collar whites". That's Wayne County in a nutshell.

[purji]

18. I live "downriver"

people love my Obama bumper sticker,I get beeps and thumbs up every day.
I know of two normally republican families who are now for Obama,which really amazes me.

[Barack_America]

21. I hate to stereotype the area.

But you have to agree, that's the stereotype.

Hey man, I'm from Waterford, so I'm not exactly in any position to throw stones. ;)

[Tyler Durden]

23. Think THAT'S bad? Try surrounding Lansing and Flint.

You'd think you were in Alabama in 1965.

Shoot, I don't thing Obama OR Clinton could have won here.

[purji]

26. my Mom used to live in waterford

I know the stereotype (for both places) and there are a lot of racists here,but I think we out number them.
the republicans I talk to either want Obama or "McClain" so i figure if they cant even get his name right they wont bother to show up in Nov.(I hope). ;)

[tokenlib]

16. Don't worry about Michigan--the economy is so in the shit-can here--

--people will reject McCain before November. They just need to get to know Obama.

[Tyler Durden]

24. I don't know where in the state you are, but it ain't HERE.

I'm in a plant of 150+ workers, not 10 of which would vote for a woman or an AA.

Hate to admit it, but the torus around Flint and Lansing? Sexist and Racist. And conservative as HELL.

[Bread and Circus]

19. Michigan has always been fond of McCain. He won here in the 2000 primary if I remember correctly

I think Obama can win here in my state, but he will have to actively campaign here once the primary season is officially over.

[ieoeja]

27. See my tag line.

That needs repeating over and over again in Michigan. Along with the, "your jobs are gone and they are not coming back," comment he made to Michiganders directly.

[cbc5g]

30. Hilarious, as a college kid home for summer, I would POUNCE on that job instantly n/t

[ieoeja]

31. That quote alone should cost McCain the election.

But only if we use it.

[cbc5g]

32. Fox and the RW media claims only Obama is making gaffe's

We can't let the RW media run this election and let McCain get away with everything while screaming Rev. Wright every day.

[Bread and Circus]

35. McCain is just full of shit, but people in Michigan always fall for the "Maverick" ruse...

I can't tell you how many idiots here that live in trashy homes and drive trashy cars yet sport "Ron Paul" swag even though he would take away their social security, medicare, and their public education if he could.

The problem is that a lot of Michigan people, working class, rich, or otherwise are politically illiterate. They don't understand how policy affects them and can't wrap their minds around the forces that have made life economically get worse and worse here. So they tend to go for "the outsider, the maverick, or the shit stirrer". That those same people would enact things that would fuck them even harder does not phase them.

Michigan is marginally blue at the Presidential level because of the union psychology as well as the AA population in certain urban centers.

There's a chance for Obama to do well here but I think he has to develop a good rural and suburban strategy outside of the college town and urban center base. His message resonates well accross the board but people have to really, really understand that despite his faux maverick past, McCain will truly mean more of the same policies that have led us down this well. Until they get that crystal clear, their is a chance they might go for the folksy appeal of an old war hero.

:/

[cantgetfooldagin]

20. how about because they want to hear more than "hope" and "change"

that helps nothing.

[Tyler Durden]

25. He didn't "wow" 'em in Warren.

Pretty damned good bellweather.

November will suck.

[cantgetfooldagin]

52. people want to hear concrete plans not someone spouting hope & change

november will definitely suck. so will the next four years.

[Hawaii Hiker]

53. What is McBush offering other than a promise to continue the Iraq disaster

of course, in his wasted old mind, "were winning in Iraq"...And he also will nominate justices to the SCOTUS who will try to overturn Roe V. Wade....

I've not heard any concrete plans from McBush....And if I did hear them, I'll likely disagree 100% w/them....

[cantgetfooldagin]

57. that does not justify getting the same thing from the dems

[Butch350]

28. MayBe Obama Can Start

making some head way, and get more serious on winning mi and other states, as soon as he gets
that albatross hillary from around his neck.

[marlakay]

34. they haven't had a chance to get to know him

and hillary has been all over tv making it look like she is the only one who cares about them. I think once the truth gets to the people this summer especially IF she backs out he will be fine.

Basically Hillary can help McCain win or lose, but if she makes us lose the party is split in my opinion. I know many people both AA and whites and all other races that will go to third party, in fact so many it will be a strong third party.

I know this is a site for dems but if the dems can't win this time they have lost it and mass people will leave the party.

[me b zola]

37. Here's a graph explaining why Obama isn't doing better in MI GE polls

[NatBurner]

51. lol

[PoliticalAmazon]

39. They don't know Hillary was the one who outsourced their jobs overseas. n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

43. Obama won't lose Michigan.

I don't care what anyone says, the fact he's only barely losing that state shows me he didn't take much of a hit from not campaigning and having his name on the ballot their. Obama has campaigned all of once in Michigan and I expect once he gets rolling, he'll win there.

Oddly enough, I think he stands a better chance in that state than Clinton.

[seasat]

46. The past polls for MI have indicated that it is a tie for either candidates

FiveThirtyEight.com has a list of polls done in the state. Both Obama and Clinton have usually tied McSame or been within single digits. The last poll that had both candidates on it had McSame +1 over Obama and Clinton tied. Previous polls for Obama ranged from +8 to -4 over McSame. Clinton has ranged from 0 to -9 over McSame. The bigger question is, why is our party not doing better in Michigan?

[LisaM]

49. Perhaps he shouldn't have lectured the auto companies on fuel economy

while he was driving a Chrysler 300C with a V8 engine and a Hemi.

He might also have done better not to fib about the response he got when he mentioned better fuel economy at the Detroit Economic Club (pretending he got a stony silence, when the tape shows that there were plenty of people who applauded him, then gloating over how he told them "hard truths").

Then he slaps the voters in the face by trotting out Edwards at an event in Grand Rapids and acting as if he felt bad that he couldn't campaign there before (except, of course, for the Conyers' "How can I vote for Obama?" ads).

Now, I believe that the auto companies need to face the reality of getting better fuel economy too. But I think the government should be a partner in this and help subsidize the research, to the extent that it's feasible.

[Thrill]

50. McCain has had a free ride since January.

Grandpa isn't going to run strong across the country

[Phx_Dem]

54. Not that surprising

because there are two Democratic candidates still 'officially' in the race so it skews the vote because Hillary supporters are probably giving their vote to McCain to make a point. When we have an official nominee, polls will change. Some Hillary supporters will probably still vote for McCain, but not enough to give him th election especially now that Bob Barr is in the race. We're going to win and it's not going to be close.

Don't forget what the polls said in Dec. 2007 just one month before IA and NN. How quickly they changed.

December 03, 2007 - PEW http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_pewap_us_ia_nh_sc_democra.php

Iowa - Clinton leads Obama (31% to 26%) in a statewide caucus; Edwards trials at 19%, Gov. Bill Richardson at 10%.
FINAL: Obama 37.5 (+7.8%), Edwards 29.7, Clinton 29.5

New Hampshire - Clinton leads Obama (38% to 19%) in a statewide primary; Edwards trails at 15%, Richardson at 10%.
FINAL: Clinton 39 (+2.6%), Obama 36.5, Edwards 16.9,

South Carolina - Clinton leads Obama (45% to 31%) in a statewide primary; Edwards trails at 10%.
FINAL: Obama 55.4 (+28.9%), Clinton 26.5, Edwards 17.6


(Mrs. Phx_Dem)

[canucksawbones]

55. the numbers will change significantly when the GE starts

once the presumptive nominee is declared it will become a slugfest between the 2 presumptive nominees and Obama will do significantly better when he starts campaigning.

The reality is once Obama has enough delegates (pledged + super) to claim victory after the May 31 decision, the GE campaign is on. It doesn't matter what Clinton does at that point. She will require a floor vote of the majority of the DNC and floor delegates both to her majority or a 2/3 delegate majority to throw the convention vote open to change the outcome, that won't happen.

Obama's numbers have shown to improve whenever he campaigns in a state, Michigan will be no different (look at what his campaign managed in Indiana, from 20 points down to a less than 1 point loss. He is within 5 points of McCain in Florida, and that hasn't been resolved. His numbers will improve in Michigan after the 31st (He is already in agreement with Michigan's solution, Hilary is the spoiler there.))

Basically when there is only 1 Democratic Candidate to worry about that candidate's numbers will go up, the vast majority of partisan Democrats will come together to defeat McCain when it come down in the end (remember, on these boards, people tend to be substantially morte partisan than the general public, and that is on both candidate's sides)

GK

[malik flavors]

56. In the latest MI Survey USA poll, they said obama gets 65% of the A-A vote and McCain 25%

with like 12% undecided. That's nonsense. Obama will get over 90% of the A-A vote. That same poll also said the youth vote was over 30% undecided. That will also go to Obama. The poll had him down 4, but considering those things, I'd put him up atleast 4.