Survey USA: Sebelius cannot deliver home state of Kansas

[woolldog]

According to a new Survey USA poll of Kansas, adding Sebelius to the ticket doesn't help Obama there. I guess we can throw out the idea that the reason Sebelius is polling poorly as VP in poll after poll is b/c of lack of name recognition. Even in her home state where she is governor her presence on the ticket makes no difference.

Baseline numbers:

O-39 M-49

Obama/Edwards-39 McCain/Hucabee-51
Obama/Sebelius-41 McCain/Huckabee-50

Obama/Edwards-39 McCain/Romney-48
Obama/Sebelius-38 McCain/Romeny-49

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6e675e3a-c1e0-45f1-a907-ddf7db0a5afa

[malik flavors]

1. Well, that's it. She's off the shortlist.

[msongs]

2. just like edwards was no help to kerry in NC or any where else really nt

[Thrill]

5. Edwards simply is not popular here

in NC. I tried to tell people this when he was selected.

[grantcart]

17. yes you did - I never understood it but I had to accept it and that's when

I moved on. If you can't take your own home state you can't be President.

[jaksavage]

3. Kansas is a writeoff anyway

Grew up there, repuke family still there.
Forget it.

[woolldog]

8. The point is that people were arguing Sebelius fared poorly due to lack of name recognition

But she has name recognition in KS and still fares poorly. In fact adding her to the ticket doesn't even appreciably increase Obama's percentage of the Democratic electorate.

As a baseline he's getting 61%. With Sebelius on the ticket he still gets 61% against McCain/Huckabee. And that number drops to 57% against McCain/Romney. That's not good.

[Bread and Circus]

15. One thing though, you can't put a lot of stock in May polls. But your point is well taken and not

unreasonable.

She's one of many choices. She happens to be one of my top choices but I'm up for anything. As long as I have President Obama to look forward to.

[woolldog]

16. me too.

I think we all have our favorite candidates, but the #1 goal of the VP slot is to make the nominee's job of getting elected in the GE easier. Ultimately, I'm for whoever does that.

[Thrill]

4. Add Warner to VA. And I bet Obama is leading by 12 points there

[malik flavors]

7. Does Warner have any foreign policy experience?

[Cosmocat]

24. I think that has to be a consideration ...

he hasn't gotten much play in this, but I think Mark Warner HAS to be considered ... I think BO has a shot, but looks way to close to call, or a tick short in VA ... If Warner is almost assured of making VA a win, I think they might have to go that route ...

He isn't extraordinarily dynamic, but was very popular as D in an R state, and kind of broke the D mold to make Ds strong in that state ... He has that exec experience as a governor and in private business and just is flat out competent ...

[LSK]

29. we badly need every Senate seat we can get

[gcomeau]

6. Who cares?

The non-existent possibility of taking Kansas was never a reason she was being considered in the first place. Her wider potential effect on the electorate nation-wide was.

[malik flavors]

10. Edwards runs better in her own state than she does.

[woolldog]

13. read post #8

[Secret_Society]

9. I thought the recent Michigan VP polling was very interesting

Versus a McCain/Romney ticket only Clinton, Gore, and Edwards put a dent in the McCain's lead when Romney is added. Something to watch out for. I think Romney is a strong VP for McCain.

[malik flavors]

11. Romney also helps in Colorado and Nevada with the mormon population.

He's a very strong VP candidate.

[woolldog]

23. I don't know what to think about Michigan right now?

Do the voters there realize McCain is about as pro-Nafta as can be?

[KittyWampus]

12. NO candidate can "deliver" a state unless it's like Blackwell in OH. Its immature to use that phrase

[woolldog]

14. It's a common enough idiom.

[KittyWampus]

18. absolutely, but it seems very simplistic and unrealistic. Unless you're Blackwell in OH

and literally going to deliver a state by actively STEALING votes and preventing them from being cast and counted.

[woolldog]

19. You're being far too literal.

The word "delivered" in context here is simply shorthand for "popular enough to help win the state with her presence on the ticket."

[TexasObserver]

20. I don't think she has a realistic chance at the ticket.

If he's going to pick a woman, he has to pick Hillary, and he's not picking Hillary.

[mystieus]

21. These polls mean nothing until we have a nominee.

[woolldog]

22. would you care to share your reasoning on that?

[mystieus]

26. The VP polling is useless. It's all about name recognition.

Same reason Hillary had 20-30% lead in nearly every primary state 4-5 months before the primary.

[woolldog]

27. Um, mystieus, this is a poll OF KANSAS!!!

Are you saying Sebelius has no name recognition in the state where she is governonr? That in itself is problematic.

She should at least help him get a higher percentage of the democratic electorate. She DOESN'T.

Wake up and smell the coffee mystieus! She's not a good VP pick.

[mystieus]

31. I know for a fact a lot of Kansas people are saying no because they want her to remain Governor

I heard this a lot from DU Kansas members. These VP polls mean nothing until we have a nominee.

[Barack_America]

25. Interesting. Now I want to see Virginia.

And what's up with only having the "McCain/Romney" pairing in Michigan?

And no Richardson in NM?

Boo.

[woolldog]

28. ok, here ya go

;-)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9901f8fc-034e-4a1d-ab36-f6e5c918614e

[Barack_America]

30. Wow. Thanks!

How did I miss that?

Man, Obama/Edwards really cleans up, doesn't it?

Too bad they didn't sample Webb, Warner and Kaine. That could've been interesting.