thing to remember about these polls: it is of likely voters

[PretzelWarrior]

so when you consider all the young and p!ssed off new voters as well as those who only vote occasionally....you may have a better picture than what people are letting on.

[T Wolf]

1. And are "likely" voters

the ones who voted last time, thus missing any new voters?

[DaveinMD]

2. its all about vote modeling

all the other polls on the polling report have Kerry leading, one by as many as 7 points.

[Mike L]

4. Except for Gallup.

It says we're down 4-5%.

[sandnsea]

3. Consistent voters?

On my voting sheets it shows which elections people vote in. I don't know how many elections a person has to vote in to be considered a likely voter. We're contacting anybody who hasn't voted in every election as somebody who isn't totally committed to voting and likely not totally committed to voting a straight party ticket. Pollsters have their own methodologies to identify likely voters. They miss ALOT of people that way and also are more likely to get right leaning results because Republicans vote more consistently than Dems.